Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:30 am

IMF IN THE HOUSE!!!!!

:lol:

le's see how this plays out.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... -argentina

i like this quote, because it sums up investing in Argentina:


“The IMF is in a serious pickle,” said Esteruelas. “It reminds me of the saying: If you owe the bank $100, it’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, it’s the bank’s problem.”
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:58 am

I Don't know if calling this a "restructuring" makes this any less of a default, but that is what they are doing. Foriegn investors better keep one hand on their wallet, because Argentina is about to pick their pocket.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ves-tumble

I guess at best you can call this an "ordered default".
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:06 am

here is better coverage of what is happening:
https://www.reuters.com/article/argenti ... SL5N25P3GE

guess they officially call it a "selective default"; which everyone knows, there is no such thing in Argentina.

This is the sucker in the last suckers phase of Argentina default.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:14 pm

It is just amazing, like clock work, the Argentinians are flooding english financial and stock web sites with pump and dump scams. they are pushing "what a great deal", "opertunity", "nothing is wrong", etc and so on.

you can tell they are Argentinians, because of the way they write.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:59 pm

I guess they tried to roll over the short term peso debt, and no one showed up to the auction.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... bills/amp/
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:09 pm

well here is some one that knows when to call an argentinean default a default:

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... time.phtml

she was the head of IMF research back 2001, and says it would be a miracle if they last 6 months.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:19 pm

only one thing is certain in Argentina. No matter how bad it looks, it is probably much worse.

These guys are in far more trouble than they are telling everyone, and that ship is going down faster than I even thought.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... time.phtml
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:07 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:19 pm
only one thing is certain in Argentina. No matter how bad it looks, it is probably much worse.

These guys are in far more trouble than they are telling everyone, and that ship is going down faster than I even thought.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... time.phtml
Yeah it's not looking good, which does have a flow on effect for Chile too, especially in tourism and retail. Argie numbers down well over 50 percent, combine that with a drought in agriculture producing regions, lower copper prices, a difficult international scene and the govt (those on the right) here must be quietly worried too. What's Macri to do? Throw his hands in the air and drop the mic, by all measures he is unlikely to be there in a few months.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:22 pm

That was an interesting point in I think that forbes article above. Who would even want to buy argentina's distressed debt at this level, when there is no clarity if the next administration is intending to pay or stiff everyone?
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:29 am

Defaulted!!!!!

s&p credit rating calls it a "selective" default.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ult-by-s-p

that article and the rating agencies go on to play some pretty stretched word games with what is going on, and dance around calling a default a default. Think they are trying cover their rear, as they did not see this coming this fast.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by mem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:27 am

Puerto Rico and hurricanes, Argentina and defaults...its hard to keep caring when it just keeps happening over and over and over again.

It's too bad for Chile...just getting double whammyd by the US/China and Argentina in terms of indirect impact of trade and tourism.

We may see yet the USD/CLP approach 800 if this keeps up. We are just a few pesos away from breaking thr all time high of 727

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:33 am

I find the whole thing amazing, except that this is not the first time.

imagine you go to a bank to ask for a loan. You have defaulted on every loan you have ever taken. The bank agrees to loan you the money, and it will be distribute the money to you in payments over so many months.

before you even get the full amount, you go back to the bank and tell them you can not pay the loan, and you want to renegotiate the terms of the loan, and also mention that you probably are going to need a bigger loan, just to make the payments on the money the bank already loaned you.

meanwhile, you quit your job, stiff your other creditors, and go on a shopping spree, quit feeding your kids, cash in their college fund, your pension account, cancel your health insurance, etc, etc.

That bank is the IMF.
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