Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:28 am

This why Argentina is the mother of all pyramid schemes, and inspite of the political window dressing, is one of the most 'real socialist' countries in the planet:

Consider this: Out of Argentina’s population of 44 million, there are only 6.7 million private-sector employees and 2.3 million self-employed workers who are paying for 15.3 million people subsidized by the state, including public employees, pensioners and people who receive government subsidies.

In other words, about 9 million workers who don’t work for the government maintain 15.3 million who are paid by the government. No country on Earth that can afford such government largess in the long run.

By comparison, neighboring Chile has a much healthier mix of public and private workers. About 6.6 million people work in the private sector, while there are only 1.1 million public workers and 1.5 million pensioners. No wonder Chile’s economy has grown much more than Argentina in recent decades and that Chile has been more successful in reducing poverty.

In the United States, there are 142.4 million people working in the private sector versus 22.4 million public workers and 43.7 million pensioners. Much like in Chile, the number of people working for private employers is much larger than those maintained by the state. Again, it’s no surprise that the U.S. economy has worked better than Argentina’s.

Alejandro Werner, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s Latin America department, told me the IMF has no official statistics on Argentina’s ratio of public and private workers, but basically confirmed the figures I showed him.

“According to various studies, Argentina has less than one private-sector worker for each public employee or pensioner paid for by the state,” Werner told me in an interview. “Chile and the United States have more than two private-sector workers for each worker paid for by the state.”
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/ ... 35402.html

without the massive public debt, financed by foreign investment suckers, that simply would not be possible.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:43 am

admin wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:28 am
This why Argentina is the mother of all pyramid schemes, and inspite of the political window dressing, is one of the most 'real socialist' countries in the planet:

Consider this: Out of Argentina’s population of 44 million, there are only 6.7 million private-sector employees and 2.3 million self-employed workers who are paying for 15.3 million people subsidized by the state, including public employees, pensioners and people who receive government subsidies.

In other words, about 9 million workers who don’t work for the government maintain 15.3 million who are paid by the government. No country on Earth that can afford such government largess in the long run.

By comparison, neighboring Chile has a much healthier mix of public and private workers. About 6.6 million people work in the private sector, while there are only 1.1 million public workers and 1.5 million pensioners. No wonder Chile’s economy has grown much more than Argentina in recent decades and that Chile has been more successful in reducing poverty.

In the United States, there are 142.4 million people working in the private sector versus 22.4 million public workers and 43.7 million pensioners. Much like in Chile, the number of people working for private employers is much larger than those maintained by the state. Again, it’s no surprise that the U.S. economy has worked better than Argentina’s.

Alejandro Werner, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s Latin America department, told me the IMF has no official statistics on Argentina’s ratio of public and private workers, but basically confirmed the figures I showed him.

“According to various studies, Argentina has less than one private-sector worker for each public employee or pensioner paid for by the state,” Werner told me in an interview. “Chile and the United States have more than two private-sector workers for each worker paid for by the state.”
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/ ... 35402.html

without the massive public debt, financed by foreign investment suckers, that simply would not be possible.
Lol, that would explain a few things, I guess. Good old socialists throw money at a problem then look for a solution, (or throw money at things and pretend there is actually a problem to be solved) . Argentina is just a huge gravy train, it's easy to spend others money and throw it around with absolutely no plan on how to tackle a counties structural problems. The masses are easy to influence, and you dont even need a majority, just enough to keep you in power, that's been shown time and time again in many places over the last decade.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:48 am

There were two things I seen in Argentina on my recent trips that told me that Argentina was going to swing back to the far left.

first, was all the Pro-Fernandez graphite around the country. not old stuff either. new, recent spray paint.

second, I told this story a bit before, the book stores. my wife and I were wondering around the book stores in buenos Aires, and almost all the books had a hard left, pro-socialist to marxist bend. Philosophy section, you could not find just a plane translation of one of the great philosophers (plato, Aristotle, Hume); but, you could find lot's of reinterpretations with a socialist spin, or socialist apology of their works. Economics section, obviously, all socialism and anti-IMF, etc. I go over to the architectural section. same thing. super pro-socialist commentary on buildings, etc. Engineering, same thing (gravity and the laws of physics seems to work different according to socialist). You get the picture.

well, I kept thinking about that. how strange that there was almost no diversity in the thought or topics in the book stores. not even china had that sort myopia of topics.

It occurred to me finaly what that means. In a world where readying books is in rapid decline, and profit margin in book stores everywhere is razor thin, especially in Argentina, socialism topics must be selling. That is where the public's head is at. That is where the demand is at. They are literally, literally in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, of socialist political thought; to the exclusion of all else.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:20 am

I don't even think those numbers above really capture the full picture, when considering all the subsidies for example gas, eletric, etc.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:39 pm

here is stunning statistic that captures the level of systemic corruption ingrained in the Argentina culture. 75% of argentineans don't care about the corruption or honesty of the candidates.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... nesty/amp/

They are fundamentally in default. IMF needs to come this week, and be extremely generous and understanding; or, Argentina could be in official default in the next few weeks. They are burning through cash at a rate of about 4 billion dollars a week, that we know of.

here is there debt repayment schedule over the next few years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... must-climb
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Space Cat » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:29 pm

Even "The Economist" bashes Macri:

Argentina’s crisis shows the limits of technocracy
As this highlights, the government had too many economic cooks following different recipes. They wanted, variously, to slash inflation, increase economic growth and tighten the budget. Some wanted a weaker peso (for growth) and others a stronger one (to fight inflation). They should have accepted that the price of fiscal gradualism was tighter money.
Mr Macri’s re-election campaign was based on fear, that the return of Ms Fernández would turn Argentina into Venezuela. She deftly defused that.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by FrankPintor » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:07 am

Space Cat wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:29 pm
Even "The Economist" bashes Macri:

Argentina’s crisis shows the limits of technocracy
As this highlights, the government had too many economic cooks following different recipes. They wanted, variously, to slash inflation, increase economic growth and tighten the budget. Some wanted a weaker peso (for growth) and others a stronger one (to fight inflation). They should have accepted that the price of fiscal gradualism was tighter money.
Mr Macri’s re-election campaign was based on fear, that the return of Ms Fernández would turn Argentina into Venezuela. She deftly defused that.
Well, there's been a lot of post-mortem analysis. The gradualist approach ensured that there would be negative headlines every day, maybe it would have been better to have a short sharp shock and get it over with. In any case Macri didn't deliver what he promised, though I think he was going in the right direction, but it was too little, too late.

Argentina is possibly in for a wild ride between now and December, completely self-inflicted: a totally unnecessary primary (why have primary elections when the main parties all have only one candidate team?) which turned out to be a proxy election, so now they have a president elect who won't take power until December, and a lame-duck president without support in the country. I think Argentinians must be adrenaline junkies, they already had a crisis and devaluation almost exactly one year ago, they really didn't need another now.

Argie-bashing is too easy, though, if anyone wants a list of companies worth more than $1 billion, it's at https://www.value.today/headquarters/argentina. Also the Miami Herald article's numbers are a bit funny... about 20% of the workforce is in the public service, about the same as the OECD average. Macri could have done a whole lot more cleaning out, particularly at AFIP which has its tentacles wrapped around the private sector and could give the vampire squids at Goldmann Sachs master classes in bloodsucking, but the numbers are not extraordinary. I didn't see numbers for pensioners, but a $200 pension per month isn't exactly going to break the bank.

I saw the return of Cristina as VP as a cheap and cynical ploy to avoid being tried for corruption, while taking into account that her unpopularity made her unacceptable as a presidential candidate... and there's some anxiety that the other Fernandez is a trojan horse for her, that play was already made in Argentinian politics before.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:06 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:28 am
This why Argentina is the mother of all pyramid schemes, and inspite of the political window dressing, is one of the most 'real socialist' countries in the planet:

Consider this: Out of Argentina’s population of 44 million, there are only 6.7 million private-sector employees and 2.3 million self-employed workers who are paying for 15.3 million people subsidized by the state, including public employees, pensioners and people who receive government subsidies.

In other words, about 9 million workers who don’t work for the government maintain 15.3 million who are paid by the government. No country on Earth that can afford such government largess in the long run.

By comparison, neighboring Chile has a much healthier mix of public and private workers. About 6.6 million people work in the private sector, while there are only 1.1 million public workers and 1.5 million pensioners. No wonder Chile’s economy has grown much more than Argentina in recent decades and that Chile has been more successful in reducing poverty.

In the United States, there are 142.4 million people working in the private sector versus 22.4 million public workers and 43.7 million pensioners. Much like in Chile, the number of people working for private employers is much larger than those maintained by the state. Again, it’s no surprise that the U.S. economy has worked better than Argentina’s.

Alejandro Werner, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s Latin America department, told me the IMF has no official statistics on Argentina’s ratio of public and private workers, but basically confirmed the figures I showed him.

“According to various studies, Argentina has less than one private-sector worker for each public employee or pensioner paid for by the state,” Werner told me in an interview. “Chile and the United States have more than two private-sector workers for each worker paid for by the state.”
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/ ... 35402.html

without the massive public debt, financed by foreign investment suckers, that simply would not be possible.
One problem with the ratio of public to private workers is that it doesn't explain how a socialist country like the USSR ever managed to achieve stunning rates of economic growth in its best years. And so, yeah, if only it was that simple.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:21 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:07 am
Argie-bashing is too easy, though, if anyone wants a list of companies worth more than $1 billion, it's at https://www.value.today/headquarters/argentina.
Thank you, that's an impressive list, even though I never heard of most of those companies. Also, simply looking at the auto manufacturing sector in Argentina versus Chile, well, I wanna close one eye with a palm of my hand, like the Chileans do.

Some global companies are present in Argentina such as Fiat, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Iveco, General Motors, Nissan Motors, Toyota, Scania, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, Honda, PSA (Peugeot-Citroen), etc., and also some national companies such as Materfer,[80] TAT S.A.,[81] Helvética,[82] Crespi, PurSang,[83] etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotiv ... #Argentina

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:59 pm

However you want to slice that pie, at the end of the day Argentina is spending, and has been spending, way more money than it has; for a very, very long time.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Space Cat » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:18 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:07 am
Macri could have done a whole lot more cleaning out, particularly at AFIP which has its tentacles wrapped around the private sector and could give the vampire squids at Goldmann Sachs master classes in bloodsucking, but the numbers are not extraordinary.
Heeey, don't offend vampire squids! 😀 They are rather cute and absolutely harmless, eating organic waste near the ocean floor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4U0vG2bxy0

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:08 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:59 pm
However you want to slice that pie, at the end of the day Argentina is spending, and has been spending, way more money than it has; for a very, very long time.
How do you spend money that you don't have? Let a lone for a very long time. Something doesn't add up.

I miss the Argies. Hope Christina works her magic and they come back to spend their summers here like they used to. They deserve a little respite after the years of Macri torture :)

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