Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Anything at all (keep it clean) goes here that does not fit in to any of the other forums.

Moderator: eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:27 am

xe.com is showing last weeks price.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:47 am

looks like most AR stocks are down 20 to 30% this morning.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:49 am

seems it hit 60 to the dollar at one point, 25% down, but i am not even sure that is close to real time:

https://www.reuters.com/article/argenti ... SE6N20800L
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:21 pm

So, bloomberg is reporting that Friday, default probability was at 50%. Today, 70%.

I would peg that closer to about 99%.

The one I don't get is the Argentina 100 year bond. Should be called 'the 100% guaranteed to never see your money again bond'.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:37 pm

So my former guesstimate of the AR peso was something like 60-80 by final election time in November, 100 to the dollar by end of 2019.

Given how far and fast everything moved with this preliminary primary, I would expect 100 pesos to the dollar by election time; and well over 100, possibly even 150, by the start of 2020 no matter who wins. There is simply nowhere near sufficient IMF firepower left in the central bank to rescue the peso from this level.

If Fernandez wins, from there, the whole bottom starts being pretty meaningless.

Argentina, in the middle of economic crisis, is having another crisis, in the middle of international trade / currency war. Not exactly a counter-cycle play there.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:49 pm

65 to the dollar, 30% down.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSE6N20800N

my above predictions might not last the day at this rate.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:53 pm

It looks like any Chilean company with even remote exposure to Argentina is getting slapped today; even though most of them have dialed back their exposure in big ways over the last year or two.

Both Chilean peso and Brazil real are getting thrown out with the bath water.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:03 pm

so this is interesting.

at 9:40 this morning, the buenos aires times is reporting 49 to the dollar, while traders were reporting near 60.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argenti ... rnet.phtml

I am not even sure what is going on with xe.com, as they still have not posted a current exchange rate today for the dollar vs. AR

Which leads me to think the chaos is so wide spread, no one even knows for sure what the exchange rate is like.

This is looking a whole lot like the 2002 devaluation.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:34 pm

Now it looks like the Buenos aires times is catching up, and reporting 65 to the dollar; but, it is looks like they are having trouble keeping updated on the current price.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... esos.phtml

Interest rates on those short term local bonds hit 75%
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:55 pm

and, of course, Bolsonaro is predicting a Venezuela style exodus from Argentina if the left wins again in Argentina.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... la/779244/

I think he might be right, in some respects, but believe it will be more of a drip, drip, drip out.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19304
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:25 pm

well that did not take long. I am not the only one making a 100 peso to the dollar calls. via bloomberg:

20190812_132418.jpg
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
FrankPintor
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1261
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by FrankPintor » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:00 pm

My bank here is selling Dollars at 57,975 Pesos, apparently the central bank intervened and maybe the initial panic has subsided. I was able to get money out of an ATM (though only one transaction of 4000 pesos, and it was at Fridays's rate) this afternoon. It's a bit worrying though.
Caracas es Caracas. Lo demás es monte y culebra!

Post Reply