Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Space Cat
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Space Cat » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:24 am

41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:49 am
It's not only cultural reasons (although they play an important part) that will prevent Chile from getting out of the so called middle income trap. A shrinking workforce and older population, low productivity, low copper prices and the natural resource curse, lack of R and D, bureaucracy and red tape, etc , or will all these issues go away now after what's happened?
Is going to take a lot more than Willing the country into a more prosperous one, especially now the country will essentially loose the next few years of development getting out of this mess and the mess to come with the constitution.
The whole mess is created to solve most of the problems you mentioned. Chile still has a population pyramid with a heavy bottom (hence the revolt, lots of young people with little opportunities) but most of these human resources are being wasted by the archaic elitist society organization.

I wrote before that the local "technocratic" elites are too short-sighted: they tweak economy here and there but don't do anything significant to increase the country's productive output. They just continue extracting resources like they have been doing for centuries and throw scraps at a fraction of the country's population, so there's someone trained to serve their needs.

The last decades demonstrated that you can't change their attitudes without a collective slap in the face. I know you're not into "left" stuff but the history shows again and again that there's no social progress without a threat to the elites from below.

If we look at the "right", then Adam Smith wrote in "The Wealth of Nations": "No society can surely be flourishing and happy of which by far the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable."

While the current system may delivered flat TVs into most houses, it produces too much misery to be sustainable in the long run.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am

Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:24 am
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:49 am
It's not only cultural reasons (although they play an important part) that will prevent Chile from getting out of the so called middle income trap. A shrinking workforce and older population, low productivity, low copper prices and the natural resource curse, lack of R and D, bureaucracy and red tape, etc , or will all these issues go away now after what's happened?
Is going to take a lot more than Willing the country into a more prosperous one, especially now the country will essentially loose the next few years of development getting out of this mess and the mess to come with the constitution.
The whole mess is created to solve most of the problems you mentioned. Chile still has a population pyramid with a heavy bottom (hence the revolt, lots of young people with little opportunities) but most of these human resources are being wasted by the archaic elitist society organization.

I wrote before that the local "technocratic" elites are too short-sighted: they tweak economy here and there but don't do anything significant to increase the country's productive output. They just continue extracting resources like they have been doing for centuries and throw scraps at a fraction of the country's population, so there's someone trained to serve their needs.

The last decades demonstrated that you can't change their attitudes without a collective slap in the face. I know you're not into "left" stuff but the history shows again and again that there's no social progress without a threat to the elites from below.

If we look at the "right", then Adam Smith wrote in "The Wealth of Nations": "No society can surely be flourishing and happy of which by far the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable."

While the current system may delivered flat TVs into most houses, it produces too much misery to be sustainable in the long run.
Thats all well and good , to be fair though it has produced a lot more than flat screens in every home, but putting that aside and the failings in the current system , what system then doesnt produce misery and is sustainable in the long run?
One is that is decided by the people? Yeah hows that simple referendum working out for the Brits with Brexit. Brexit is a walk in the park compared with what Chile is dealing with, and that's been what? 3 and half years and counting and two prime ministers?
This mess that has been created will not solve most of problems I mentioned, it will fix a few things, eventually, like I said before , dont kid yourself on time frames here.

History has also shown us a lot about the elites not just walking away from what they have without a fight .
Your blaming of the system ignores one fundamental problem, People, they maybe the solution as you idealisticly hope for , with the young ones all about to take over from those useless technocrats that promote digging resources out of the ground, (sorry I'm not trying to be sarcastic) but I fail to see, or am unable to join the dots on that one. Are the young ones going to suddenly become experts in how to make the whole country prosperous? Now you are talking generational change and a complete cultural change, which from my point of view is not radically different to a month ago(actuallyits completely different, but not that different). One Thing that has changed is people think burning and destroying stuff and killing people gets you more stuff and a better life that someone else will pay for (the rich or the government) , and preferably right now thanks. Maybe that's a bit extreme, but culturally so much is still the same, maybe there is some more empathy for those outside your class or whatever, but people (anywhere) have short term memories, already much of the unity that was evident in the first week has rapidly evaporated. Unity, Replaced by fear, anxiety, a realization that there is actually more bad asses out there than many thought, and many other unhealthy attitudes, go and talk to some German farmers and ask them how their point of view has changed, or business owners being made bankrupt.

People are the reason no system works as it theoretically should. Capitalism, communism, socialism, democracy, whatever, its always corrupted.
It's not that I'm not into "left" stuff, I'm just not convinced that at a certain level its any different from the "right" stuff.
Good Adam Smith quote , here's another one, I wonder if people would honestly be proud of how they see themselves and not only in the past month, in general in their lives .

The first thing you have to know is yourself. A man who knows himself can step outside himself and watch his own reactions like an observer.

Or how about this one?

Never complain of that of which it is at all times in your power to rid yourself.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:03 am

Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:22 am
41southchile wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:49 pm
And there in lies Chiles major problem, comparing themselves to Western Europe and OECD members, this is definitely Chiles neighborhood, the last month has shown this is the neighborhood where the country firmly belongs. These Latin American basket cases , economically speaking, are who Chile should compare themselves with , not friggin Western Europe . It's not only the physical distance that separates Chile from Western Europe.
I don't see any cultural reasons that prevent Chile getting on the level of pre-crisis Spain. The last month has shown to me that there's a collective will to make serious system adjustments and this will is what can get the country out of the middle-income trap.
I can.

An entire EU to underwrite them.

sorry, but pre-EU, spain was not much different than a lot of Latin America in development.

for that matter, greece and Italy too.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:34 am

admin wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:03 am
Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:22 am
41southchile wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:49 pm
And there in lies Chiles major problem, comparing themselves to Western Europe and OECD members, this is definitely Chiles neighborhood, the last month has shown this is the neighborhood where the country firmly belongs. These Latin American basket cases , economically speaking, are who Chile should compare themselves with , not friggin Western Europe . It's not only the physical distance that separates Chile from Western Europe.
I don't see any cultural reasons that prevent Chile getting on the level of pre-crisis Spain. The last month has shown to me that there's a collective will to make serious system adjustments and this will is what can get the country out of the middle-income trap.
I can.

An entire EU to underwrite them.

sorry, but pre-EU, spain was not much different than a lot of Latin America in development.

for that matter, greece and Italy too.
Exactly I said that to my wife a couple of nights ago there was a report on CNn chile of someone comparing the metro in Santiago with a metro in Spain and how kids could buy a cheap monthly pass to travel. Um, yeah it's easy to do lots of things with billions in EU subsidies, subsidies that require more tax, for EVERYONE, not many seem to get that yet.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Space Cat » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:37 am

41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
Thats all well and good , to be fair though it has produced a lot more than flat screens in every home, but putting that aside and the failings in the current system , what system then doesnt produce misery and is sustainable in the long run?
The Nordic-like social democracy: I've been to Finland many times and even considering the EU influence, it has been doing extremely well for decades without having natural resources other than lumber. Norway is more lucky with their oil reserves and they have been using their luck much wiser than Chile has.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
One is that is decided by the people? Yeah hows that simple referendum working out for the Brits with Brexit. Brexit is a walk in the park compared with what Chile is dealing with, and that's been what? 3 and half years and counting and two prime ministers?
This mess that has been created will not solve most of problems I mentioned, it will fix a few things, eventually, like I said before , dont kid yourself on time frames here.
I disagree here: Brexit is much more severe because it affected tons of laws and agreements. Chile keeps trading, the economy keeps running in the same mode but slower.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
Your blaming of the system ignores one fundamental problem, People, they maybe the solution as you idealisticly hope for , with the young ones all about to take over from those useless technocrats that promote digging resources out of the ground, (sorry I'm not trying to be sarcastic) but I fail to see, or am unable to join the dots on that one. Are the young ones going to suddenly become experts in how to make the whole country prosperous? Now you are talking generational change and a complete cultural change, which from my point of view is not radically different to a month ago(actuallyits completely different, but not that different).
Even the current economy minister Briones has more modern views than the old political elites. For the record, I'm not saying that "old people don't understand the modern world" but if you follow what older Chilean politicians say, there's a strong dividing line between the ones who formed during the dictatorship and the ones who grew up in a relatively free country.

Having a worldview that matches the modern world better compensates the lack of experience in the beginning.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
One Thing that has changed is people think burning and destroying stuff and killing people gets you more stuff and a better life that someone else will pay for (the rich or the government) , and preferably right now thanks. Maybe that's a bit extreme, but culturally so much is still the same, maybe there is some more empathy for those outside your class or whatever, but people (anywhere) have short term memories, already much of the unity that was evident in the first week has rapidly evaporated.
That's a bit over the top, it wouldn't be easy to find someone who thinks that "killing people gets you more stuff". The violent groups are still an absolute minority, the looters aren't connected to the protests.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
maybe there is some more empathy for those outside your class or whatever, but people (anywhere) have short term memories, already much of the unity that was evident in the first week has rapidly evaporated.
I haven't seen the unity evaporating. My neighbors just hold a cabildo yesterday, my friends are still pushing for more change. Compared to something like the US tribal politics, Chile is extremely united. Even UDI felt it, otherwise they simply wouldn't discuss things.

Anyway, I don't want socialism, I'm not in search of a perfect system, I just would prefer a 10% more empathetic one. The Chicago-designed "every man for himself" is ending and this is a really good sign for me.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:43 am

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:44 am

Space Cat wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:37 am
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
Thats all well and good , to be fair though it has produced a lot more than flat screens in every home, but putting that aside and the failings in the current system , what system then doesnt produce misery and is sustainable in the long run?
The Nordic-like social democracy: I've been to Finland many times and even considering the EU influence, it has been doing extremely well for decades without having natural resources other than lumber. Norway is more lucky with their oil reserves and they have been using their luck much wiser than Chile has.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
One is that is decided by the people? Yeah hows that simple referendum working out for the Brits with Brexit. Brexit is a walk in the park compared with what Chile is dealing with, and that's been what? 3 and half years and counting and two prime ministers?
This mess that has been created will not solve most of problems I mentioned, it will fix a few things, eventually, like I said before , dont kid yourself on time frames here.
I disagree here: Brexit is much more severe because it affected tons of laws and agreements. Chile keeps trading, the economy keeps running in the same mode but slower.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
Your blaming of the system ignores one fundamental problem, People, they maybe the solution as you idealisticly hope for , with the young ones all about to take over from those useless technocrats that promote digging resources out of the ground, (sorry I'm not trying to be sarcastic) but I fail to see, or am unable to join the dots on that one. Are the young ones going to suddenly become experts in how to make the whole country prosperous? Now you are talking generational change and a complete cultural change, which from my point of view is not radically different to a month ago(actuallyits completely different, but not that different).
Even the current economy minister Briones has more modern views than the old political elites. For the record, I'm not saying that "old people don't understand the modern world" but if you follow what older Chilean politicians say, there's a strong dividing line between the ones who formed during the dictatorship and the ones who grew up in a relatively free country.

Having a worldview that matches the modern world better compensates the lack of experience in the beginning.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
One Thing that has changed is people think burning and destroying stuff and killing people gets you more stuff and a better life that someone else will pay for (the rich or the government) , and preferably right now thanks. Maybe that's a bit extreme, but culturally so much is still the same, maybe there is some more empathy for those outside your class or whatever, but people (anywhere) have short term memories, already much of the unity that was evident in the first week has rapidly evaporated.
That's a bit over the top, it wouldn't be easy to find someone who thinks that "killing people gets you more stuff". The violent groups are still an absolute minority, the looters aren't connected to the protests.
41southchile wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:46 am
maybe there is some more empathy for those outside your class or whatever, but people (anywhere) have short term memories, already much of the unity that was evident in the first week has rapidly evaporated.
I haven't seen the unity evaporating. My neighbors just hold a cabildo yesterday, my friends are still pushing for more change. Compared to something like the US tribal politics, Chile is extremely united. Even UDI felt it, otherwise they simply wouldn't discuss things.

Anyway, I don't want socialism, I'm not in search of a perfect system, I just would prefer a 10% more empathetic one. The Chicago-designed "every man for himself" is ending and this is a really good sign for me.
I disagree here: Brexit is much more severe because it affected tons of laws and agreements. Chile keeps trading, the economy keeps running in the same mode but slower

Do you really believe that ? ☝️.
Brexit was easy they told everyone though.
They lied and said it would be easy, sound familiar?
Chile is looking at doing what now? Changing laws, and changing a constitution which will affect agreements.

As for the economy keeps running in the same mode, well that's debatable too if ONLY it was just a case of running slower .
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by frozen-north » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:57 am

41southchile wrote:
Strange sense of unity ?

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Tendencia ... encia.html
From the link you posted:
Que la gente vaya (a los cabildos) y se escuchen entre ellos
... en situaciones de crisis, estas cosas se tienen que hablar entre todos (…) Que la gente vaya (a los cabildos) y se escuchen entre ellos, se vean a los ojos y que podamos volver a tener una discusión lo más humana posible", concluye.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Tendencia ... encia.html

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:53 pm

well, in other news, Argentina has gone back to KFC's policy of taxing dollar purchases, sending the blue peso / dollar to 78.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1YK1UF

also 30% export tax.

let's see if they break 100 pesos to the dollar by the first of the year.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by tiagoabner » Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:42 am

The governor for Buenos Aires province is planning on increasing taxes by about 55% to keep up with inflation. Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2019/1 ... or-ciento/

Needless to say, this is a Very Bad Idea. That's what happens when about 30% of working adults work for the government: someone needs to pay the bill.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:01 am

tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:42 am
The governor for Buenos Aires province is planning on increasing taxes by about 55% to keep up with inflation. Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2019/1 ... or-ciento/

Needless to say, this is a Very Bad Idea. That's what happens when about 30% of working adults work for the government: someone needs to pay the bill.
The new president has said Argentina is in a virtual default, and was suppose to start negotiations with creditors this week.
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