Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:47 pm

what is not been making in the international press, but i am seeing lots of discussion in the Argentina press, is that they started imposing various currency restrictions and withdrawal limits over a week ago.

also, after tanking the currency, stock market, and bond market, the government was going to buy shares or bonds in local mutual funds that were unable to get sufficient liquidity to match their redemption. got to make sure their buddies can cash out.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:56 pm

owwwww, The good, the bad, and the ugly:

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... lars.phtml

banks limited from transfering funds and assets overseas without gov. approval; that includes banks like Santander, etc.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... seas.phtml

and monday they plan to buy 5 billion in currency. FYI, estimates i am seeing is Argentina has as much as 39 billion left, and as little as 15 billion. again, got to make sure there is just sufficient wiggle room for the buddies to get the last of their money, before pulling the drain plug completely.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy ... nday.phtml
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:59 pm

almost forgot. looks like all three ratings agencies now have Argentina rated in some type if default.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:09 pm

next week is the IMF meeting over Argentina.

I got 10 argentinean pesos, Macri and insiders know that things did not go well with the IMF meeting last week. They know there is no more. IMF money coming. so, all the rats have either left or are leaving the ship.

80 pesos to the dollar by election day, 100 pesos by the end of the year, 150 by early next year. assuming there still is such a thing as the Argentina peso next year.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:11 pm

macri also announced a 35% increase in minimum wage. which still is not even close to catching the inflation rate.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:54 pm

then we got these sorts of games going on.

freeze the price of gas and oil, $59 a barrel. then set the peso at 45 to the dollar for transaction involving oil and gas.

yea, no one is going to exploit that arbitrage in Argentina. Everyone is just far too honest. :roll:

something i have never really been able to figure out in Argentina when driving there. there is always, even before the current crisis, long lines at every single gas station. like every pump, has at least five or more cars, often with lines down the street; but, no one seems panicked. like there is simply a lack of gas stations. I also wondered if people were only filling up the gas they need for the day or something.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:00 am

So basically the conclusion from the above articles is that they are completely screwed . Some of those figures and numbers are mind blowing. Still being the Argies it won't stop them , borrow some more and blow it. There must come a time though when they get hung out to dry? And creditors give up completely no matter how big the debts?
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:50 am

the most amazing thing, as I read through the Argentina press, the comments, etc, is the complete lack of any discussion about structural or constitutional reforms.

this article, gives it a passing dismissal, like that is some sort of fairytale in the context of Argentinan politics. like no one wants to change it, left, right, center; none.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/opinion ... -way.phtml

there is almost zero self reflection on how Argentina got here, and why it keeps coming back to the point; over, and over, and over.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by FrankPintor » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:55 am

Also no reflection on how Argentina might get out of its current problems: neither of the Fernandez' has an economic plan, nor have they proposed a cabinet, one of them is off to Madrid, how nice, and the other is calling Macri a bad hombre. Totally unbelievable :roll:

At least Macri had a plan, he's been investing heavily in infrastructure but that plan hasn't paid off in electoral terms. Here's an interesting article, Villa 31 is the slum you can see arriving on the motorway from the north just before Retiro:

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/pa ... nid2283428

Note that it's not Argentinians expressing their opinions, I think it's unfortunate that there are so many Peruvians here... no country needs that.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:35 pm

my bigger concern for chile, is all the migrants that are in Argentina deciding they are not going to stick around to see the conclusion of this dog and pony show. instead decide to move on to chile all at once
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:26 am

runs on the bank. who would have thought?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VN220
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:18 am

also, Argentina just got included back in to the msci EM index, the basis for a lot of EM funds, this years after 9 years in the frontier index. they could loose it sooner rather than later:


https://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercad ... mpaign=fci
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