Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:47 pm

fun article, sizing up the overall situation: Macri become a "peronista"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 075d6951b9

I have seen some vague rumblings that recent weakness in the Chilean stock market this week, has been a contagion effect of Argentina. Not sure that is true, but I could see a few hedge fund managers just dumping the neighborhood as they exit or short Argentina to get clear of the collateral damage from the impending train wreck.

On a related note, I see LATAM, among many other companies, seems to be dialing back their operations in Argentina that have been loosing money for a while. They offered positions in Chile, to some of their executives in Argentina. Not sure, but that typically is the sort of move you do as you are getting ready to cannibalizing your operations there. I doubt they will exit completely, but probably going to reduce their routes to something like just the international connections or highly profitable routes inside the country. That is in spite of a recent reform in Argentina that remove some of the government price fixing related to airlines, allowing low cost airlines to actually be low cost.

The LATAM announcement follows after Fallabella and CENCOSUD both announced they were dialing back their operations in Argentina. SQM, I believe it was just last year, sold off a joint lithium mining operation in Argentina, after only holding it for about year.

I always find it interesting that Chilean companies seem to keep Argentina at arms reach, while other foreign companies and investors will run headlong in to that burning building.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:28 pm

what a difference a day makes. Argentina default probability seems to have moved from 50% to hit 60% today.

of course, the obligatory canned articles are starting to flow about the "contagion" from Argentina like it was a case of the measles; even though no one really describes a mechanism of how the transmission works. especialy considering nothing has really changed for EM markets, and even in the region, that would make that make any sense.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:14 pm

I don't know what the answer is for Argentina's economic issues, but I want Christina back. Or, more precisely, I want those Argie tourists back. During the four Macri years they only came here once. Now they're coming here as immigrants. Whatever her secret, she was better for Chile.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by nwdiver » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:01 am

at46 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:14 pm
I don't know what the answer is for Argentina's economic issues, but I want Christina back. Or, more precisely, I want those Argie tourists back. During the four Macri years they only came here once. Now they're coming here as immigrants. Whatever her secret, she was better for Chile.
You mean........tell everyone everywhere what they want to hear while quietly cleaning out the till......
It's all about the wine.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:14 am

it would be much better for chile if, drum role please, Argentina got it's shit together and kept it together.

this southern cone should be one of richest freetrade zones in the world.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:07 am

there goes 45 pesos to the dollar. i think i will revise my call to 60 to 70 pesos to the dollar by election time.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/mercados/bol ... 81820.html

interesting stat. Argentina default risk is 7 times that of brazil, and 30 times chile.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:00 pm

nwdiver wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:01 am
at46 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:14 pm
I don't know what the answer is for Argentina's economic issues, but I want Christina back. Or, more precisely, I want those Argie tourists back. During the four Macri years they only came here once. Now they're coming here as immigrants. Whatever her secret, she was better for Chile.
You mean........tell everyone everywhere what they want to hear while quietly cleaning out the till......
I'm wondering why people had more money under her than under Macri. Especially given the 56 billion USD from the IMF. Where did that money go?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:03 pm

away.

they did not have more money.

they took the money somewheres else, as it was a use or loose it environment. everything from stashing it under their couch, to spending it on big screen tv in chile.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by snobrd4life » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:21 pm

I think he was referring to the IMF loan. Doubt that ver much of that $56b went into the hands of Argie travelors buying TVs in Chile.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by at46 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:34 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:03 pm
away.
No kidding. They spent 3 billion in Chile only the very first year Macri came to power, after he had lifted currency controls. But the money was actually earned and saved under Cristina. The next three years under Macri we've seen nothing but pain and suffering from Argentina and it only seems to be getting worse.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:48 pm

snobrd4life wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:21 pm
I think he was referring to the IMF loan. Doubt that ver much of that $56b went into the hands of Argie travelors buying TVs in Chile.
That was spent on propping up the Argentina peso, or at least most of it so far.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:51 pm

at46 wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:34 pm
admin wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:03 pm
away.
No kidding. They spent 3 billion in Chile only the very first year Macri came to power, after he had lifted currency controls. But the money was actually earned and saved under Cristina. The next three years under Macri we've seen nothing but pain and suffering from Argentina and it only seems to be getting worse.
Are you f*$king serious?

The woman raped the country in so many ways, that even she was flying her bags of bribes in dollar bills out of the country because the peso was worthless. She had dogs at the boarders sniffing for U.S. dollar bills. Not drugs. Money.
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