Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:51 am

mem wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:27 am
Puerto Rico and hurricanes, Argentina and defaults...its hard to keep caring when it just keeps happening over and over and over again.

It's too bad for Chile...just getting double whammyd by the US/China and Argentina in terms of indirect impact of trade and tourism.

We may see yet the USD/CLP approach 800 if this keeps up. We are just a few pesos away from breaking thr all time high of 727
I think the Argentina mess is pretty priced in to Chile's market. Right now it is the trade war and copper price pushing the peso. Seen a few calls for 760 clp to the dollar by years end; I think those are still premature, as we cycle through the seasonal spring low eb in the economy. if by mid-summer, this is still going on, then there is a serious problem.

let me put it another way. Chile had 300 million in trade with Argentina in the first 6 months. lets call full year trade 600 -700 million dollars. chile's lithium exports, a relatively minor export of chile, alone is larger than all trade with Argentina. Never mind copper price, lumber, etc prices are all down.

yea, Argentina is an important source of tourism, but tourism is a super minor source of income in chile and even as important as argentinean tourist are to that industry the Argentinan tourist has been pretty MIA for over three years. Chile was already too expensive for most of them.

my wife and I were sitting at the boarder last year, we got stuck in a mega line due to a holiday in chile. In four hours we seen only a couple of dozen cars leaving Argentina, and most had chilean plates. going in to Argentina, there was 10 kilometer long line of almost all chilean vehicles. there was only a handful of big rigs coming out of Argentina in that time.

It should not be that way, but that is mostly due to Argentina's super protectionist policies they never reformed.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by nwdiver » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

Argie peso down, Chile's peso down......looks like a good place for NAms and Euros to travel to, the Chilean tourist board should be promoting tourism to the people with money...
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:24 pm

nwdiver wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm
Argie peso down, Chile's peso down......looks like a good place for NAms and Euros to travel to, the Chilean tourist board should be promoting tourism to the people with money...
Yeah, the people with the money , you seen the prices for Torres del Paine etc? , I suppose that's a good thing though, keep all those freedom campers away. Chile is relatively expensive to get here compared to say travelling to Europe from Nth America, and relatively expensive once your here, compared to say the typical touristy things on the continent, Peru, Argentina etc. Chile is expensive and tourism services and facilities are average to poor compared to other sth America countries, (outside stgo at least) service is not even comparable to what you will get in Peru or Argentina restaurants etc.
Chile has a lot to learn about tourism, they have the ingredients but are lacking co ordination or better host training or something, they have been talking tourism up for the last 20 years but it's still very amateur and over-priced for what you get. The philosophy in places like the south seems to be gouge the tourist for all you can over January and February, then do nothing for the rest of the year. Btw, while I agree with what I wrote these are not my ideas, but paraphrasing from various conversations over the years with Chileans involved in tourism.
Also Argies spent over 1billion USD on retail shopping in 2017, nothing to be sneezed at, lucky to be a few hundred million this year probably.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:47 pm

i have been saying for years chile needs to quit pissing money in to the wind on tourism. they are soooo behind the ball in so many ways. even if they fixed it, they are never going to fix the geographic disadvantage of being so far from the majority of the world's population. chile's economy would need to collapse like Argentina, for tourism to be sort of viable; in which case we would have far bigger problems than lack of tourist.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:01 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:47 pm
i have been saying for years chile needs to quit pissing money in to the wind on tourism. they are soooo behind the ball in so many ways. even if they fixed it, they are never going to fix the geographic disadvantage of being so far from the majority of the world's population. chile's economy would need to collapse like Argentina, for tourism to be sort of viable; in which case we would have far bigger problems than lack of tourist.
Agreed, and they do piss a lot of money away on it, Corfo, Indap, etc throwing money at silly little tourism projects, rural tourism, etc etc, its friggin amateur hour with people who are obviously not really interested but want to get a few million of "free" money from government agencies . Agencies that employ all these so called experts literally 100s of folks working on little pet projects that go nowhere, here have a million pesos to fix up your crappy cabaña so you can rent it out for 100 USD a night.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:40 pm

Here is how I explain it to little tourism business down in say Futa or wherever down south, when they ask me how to get more gringo tourists.

I tell them forget about it. It simply is not going to happen.

Then I start breaking it down for them, like this.

Say, you are North American, middle class family, with two week yearly vacation. Family of 4.

You want to go say white water rafting or fly fishing in Futa.

You are going to drop around $8,000 U.S. for 4 tickets, and probably not even business class, just to get to Santiago. Fly business class, and now you are well over $12,000 U.S. to get to Santiago.

One or two days to recover from the flight in Santiago, look around a bit, etc, another $2,000 or more. Just staying at a kind of o.k., international chain, with crappy Chilean service, with carpets that have not been changed or hotel that has not been maintained since the building was built. Probably run $1,000 U.S. a night for two rooms for parents and kids, meals, transportation, etc.

Then they have to fly to Puerto Montt. If they are lucky, they get their flight out of PM to Chaiten on a small bush plane (hope it does not hit a mountain, or weather even allows them to fly), the same day, then 4 hours of having their teeth knocked-out on the dirt roads. That is another $1,000 U.S. or so. If they miss the plane or can not make the connection in one day, they are spending another say $1,000 on hotel rooms in ugly Puerto Montt or perhaps something (slightly) more tolerable in Puerto Varas.

They are now almost a week in to their trip, and dropped $10,000 to $15,000 U.S., just to get your front door. They have not even spent a peso on you yet (read, 'your crappy little tourism business that is only entertaining because it is so frigen rustic and backwards it is a novelty in itself; it does not even qualify as "quaint", just a novelty').

Hope the weather is good, which it almost never is good in the Patagonia, to say go rafting, fly fishing, etc for a couple of days (never mind the locals killed all the trout, and you might be killed by the local rafting guide that does not know how to hold a paddle).

They have at this point about 4-5 days, before they have to turn around and do the return trip all again, just to get back within two weeks.

They have dropped $20,000, $25,000, perhaps $30,000 U.S. or more, just to go rafting in the rain (or not go rafting because the rivers are too low, too high, too something).

For that kind of money, they could pretty much go anywhere in the World, and have a better time doing it. The whole trip, they have not stayed in one place that would even come close to qualifying as a true international 5 star or even 4 star hotel, even if the price sure makes it seem like it. In fact, they have not stayed in a single hotel that would beat most Motel 6 in the United States in terms of quality and service. They have not eaten in a single restaurant with a Michelin star (perhaps with a Michelin tire, but not a star).

You see the problem?
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:26 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:40 pm
Here is how I explain it to little tourism business down in say Futa or wherever down south, when they ask me how to get more gringo tourists.

I tell them forget about it. It simply is not going to happen.

Then I start breaking it down for them, like this.

Say, you are North American, middle class family, with two week yearly vacation. Family of 4.

You want to go say white water rafting or fly fishing in Futa.

You are going to drop around $8,000 U.S. for 4 tickets, and probably not even business class, just to get to Santiago. Fly business class, and now you are well over $12,000 U.S. to get to Santiago.

One or two days to recover from the flight in Santiago, look around a bit, etc, another $2,000 or more. Just staying at a kind of o.k., international chain, with crappy Chilean service, with carpets that have not been changed or hotel that has not been maintained since the building was built. Probably run $1,000 U.S. a night for two rooms for parents and kids, meals, transportation, etc.

Then they have to fly to Puerto Montt. If they are lucky, they get their flight out of PM to Chaiten on a small bush plane (hope it does not hit a mountain, or weather even allows them to fly), the same day, then 4 hours of having their teeth knocked-out on the dirt roads. That is another $1,000 U.S. or so. If they miss the plane or can not make the connection in one day, they are spending another say $1,000 on hotel rooms in ugly Puerto Montt or perhaps something (slightly) more tolerable in Puerto Varas.

They are now almost a week in to their trip, and dropped $10,000 to $15,000 U.S., just to get your front door. They have not even spent a peso on you yet (read, 'your crappy little tourism business that is only entertaining because it is so frigen rustic and backwards it is a novelty in itself; it does not even qualify as "quaint", just a novelty').

Hope the weather is good, which it almost never is good in the Patagonia, to say go rafting, fly fishing, etc for a couple of days (never mind the locals killed all the trout, and you might be killed by the local rafting guide that does not know how to hold a paddle).

They have at this point about 4-5 days, before they have to turn around and do the return trip all again, just to get back within two weeks.

They have dropped $20,000, $25,000, perhaps $30,000 U.S. or more, just to go rafting in the rain (or not go rafting because the rivers are too low, too high, too something).

For that kind of money, they could pretty much go anywhere in the World, and have a better time doing it. The whole trip, they have not stayed in one place that would even come close to qualifying as a true international 5 star or even 4 star hotel, even if the price sure makes it seem like it. In fact, they have not stayed in a single hotel that would beat most Motel 6 in the United States in terms of quality and service. They have not eaten in a single restaurant with a Michelin star (perhaps with a Michelin tire, but not a star).

You see the problem?
Yup spot on, Ive had many similar conversations over the years along those lines.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by nwdiver » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:09 pm

41southchile wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:24 pm
nwdiver wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm
Argie peso down, Chile's peso down......looks like a good place for NAms and Euros to travel to, the Chilean tourist board should be promoting tourism to the people with money...
Yeah, the people with the money , you seen the prices for Torres del Paine etc? , I suppose that's a good thing though, keep all those freedom campers away. Chile is relatively expensive to get here compared to say travelling to Europe from Nth America, and relatively expensive once your here, compared to say the typical touristy things on the continent, Peru, Argentina etc. Chile is expensive and tourism services and facilities are average to poor compared to other sth America countries, (outside stgo at least) service is not even comparable to what you will get in Peru or Argentina restaurants etc.
Chile has a lot to learn about tourism, they have the ingredients but are lacking co ordination or better host training or something, they have been talking tourism up for the last 20 years but it's still very amateur and over-priced for what you get. The philosophy in places like the south seems to be gouge the tourist for all you can over January and February, then do nothing for the rest of the year. Btw, while I agree with what I wrote these are not my ideas, but paraphrasing from various conversations over the years with Chileans involved in tourism.
Also Argies spent over 1billion USD on retail shopping in 2017, nothing to be sneezed at, lucky to be a few hundred million this year probably.
Did the Torres circuit for my 5th time this past year......same price it was 7 years ago.......yes if you want to stay in the Refugios it more expensive (but not really expensive) but to camp and eat in the Refugios (so I don't need to carry much food).......priceless. And I get to see the same scenery.
It's all about the wine.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Julito » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:59 am

As someone who´s involved in tourism I can say that the vast majority in the industry here provide food and accommodation for a quick buck. They haven´t experienced, don´t do, or even understand what true "hospitality" is. Over promising and under delivering is the norm. I don´t have time to list some of the horror stories our domestic and international guests tell us but we hear them all the time.

Recently the govt. funded a free training course on hospitality industry housekeeping. We have no problem with our housekeeper, we trained her but still have to double check her work. Regardless we asked if she´d like to do the course which she did, but it was cancelled through lack of interest on the part of hotel owners and accommodation providers.

Last year I was asked to give a talk to a local polytechnic graduation class of hospitality workers and in it I stressed the importance of double checking their work before going home to ensure nothing had been forgotten. I was later told by 2 staff members that Chileans don´t double check their work, it´s not part of the culture. That´s certainly been the experience with our housekeeper, it´s as though she has this impervious mental barrier to the concept, so we´ve given up trying to tell her. Of course there are always exceptions to the rule but Chileans have been conditioned to have low expectations of service providers.

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by mem » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:26 am

admin wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:40 pm
Here is how I explain it to little tourism business down in say Futa or wherever down south, when they ask me how to get more gringo tourists.

I tell them forget about it. It simply is not going to happen.

Then I start breaking it down for them, like this.

Say, you are North American, middle class family, with two week yearly vacation. Family of 4.

You want to go say white water rafting or fly fishing in Futa.

You are going to drop around $8,000 U.S. for 4 tickets, and probably not even business class, just to get to Santiago. Fly business class, and now you are well over $12,000 U.S. to get to Santiago.

One or two days to recover from the flight in Santiago, look around a bit, etc, another $2,000 or more. Just staying at a kind of o.k., international chain, with crappy Chilean service, with carpets that have not been changed or hotel that has not been maintained since the building was built. Probably run $1,000 U.S. a night for two rooms for parents and kids, meals, transportation, etc.

Then they have to fly to Puerto Montt. If they are lucky, they get their flight out of PM to Chaiten on a small bush plane (hope it does not hit a mountain, or weather even allows them to fly), the same day, then 4 hours of having their teeth knocked-out on the dirt roads. That is another $1,000 U.S. or so. If they miss the plane or can not make the connection in one day, they are spending another say $1,000 on hotel rooms in ugly Puerto Montt or perhaps something (slightly) more tolerable in Puerto Varas.

They are now almost a week in to their trip, and dropped $10,000 to $15,000 U.S., just to get your front door. They have not even spent a peso on you yet (read, 'your crappy little tourism business that is only entertaining because it is so frigen rustic and backwards it is a novelty in itself; it does not even qualify as "quaint", just a novelty').

Hope the weather is good, which it almost never is good in the Patagonia, to say go rafting, fly fishing, etc for a couple of days (never mind the locals killed all the trout, and you might be killed by the local rafting guide that does not know how to hold a paddle).

They have at this point about 4-5 days, before they have to turn around and do the return trip all again, just to get back within two weeks.

They have dropped $20,000, $25,000, perhaps $30,000 U.S. or more, just to go rafting in the rain (or not go rafting because the rivers are too low, too high, too something).

For that kind of money, they could pretty much go anywhere in the World, and have a better time doing it. The whole trip, they have not stayed in one place that would even come close to qualifying as a true international 5 star or even 4 star hotel, even if the price sure makes it seem like it. In fact, they have not stayed in a single hotel that would beat most Motel 6 in the United States in terms of quality and service. They have not eaten in a single restaurant with a Michelin star (perhaps with a Michelin tire, but not a star).

You see the problem?
Yeah, wow, you nailed it. In the time of 2008-2014 we used to take almost annual trips to Hong Kong...because we fell in love with Shangri-la, intercontinental on victoria harbor, and Mandarin oriental. Just the hotels had such an amazing level of service. But the airfare and hotels were just crazy expensive. When we had kids we dialed it back and started just vacationing in the US. I still hope we can take the kids to Hong Kong at least once to share it with them, but of course after the revolution/martial law is in the rear view mirror. I cant imagine spending as much or more to go to a rustic novelty in remote chile. At least with hong kong we had top hotels in the world to look forward to with service to match. Did I mention the amazing service? It's hard to describe, but if you havent been gobsmacked by hotel service go to either the Island or Kowloon Shangrila and get the club level, harbor view suite.
Dont even get me started on the Michelin star restaurants. I was just bemoaning to a friend of mine the lack of legit Michellin rated restaurants in Chile.
My wife used to get so mad at me when we went to 3 star restaurants in Vegas and spend big money on dinner. Now she would jump at the chance lol

Closest place we have is And Beyond Vira Vira...we had dinner there (near Caburgua/Huife) all the food is grown on the property with free range livestock and organic gardens. Not michellin obviously but about as nice as we have found in the south. When we arrived by car, staff came out to meet us with hot rolled towels to refresh our faces...hadn't seen that since asia. Still it only begins to approach the service level I am going on and on about

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by Julito » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:22 am

Yes the Vira Vira is an interesting story. It´s one of the most expensive hotels in Chile, established by from memory a Swiss family of investors and marketed heavily into Europe for group tours. A friend used to work with a family member in Santiago. Its key staff were all recruited out of Europe eg. German pastry chef. I don´t really know how successful it´s been but the family have since leased or sold it to the Beyond Group which I believe is from South Africa.

Did you hear any Sth African accents Matt?

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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:23 am

My wife and i were in russia a couple of years ago, and stayed at the hermitage state hotel in St. Petersburg. We primarily chose it because guest get tickets included with sidedoor, skip the line, access to the Hermitage museum (like saving 4+ hours standing the rain).

Tour buses, mostly full of americans, were stopping by to take photos of the lobby a couple times a day. you know you are at a nice hotel, when the hotel is on someone else's tour. :lol:

I can not recalled what we paid at the time, but I just seen an advertisement go by for 130,000 pesos a night. There are crappy frigen cabins in the south that cost more than that per night. I remember joking to my wife we can not afford to stay home for the money. let's rent our house, and move in to a hotel.

https://thehermitagehotel.ru/en/

but, closer to home, and on the subject of Argentina, we took the family over the boarder last summer to san martin. we booked a small, not particularly nice hotel, 8 rooms, for $250 u.s. a night. the owner only had one room left, and decided to just throw it in to in the price, as it simply was not worth trying to rent and then only had to deal with us. that is $250 u.s., for the whole hotel. not per room. That was long before things got crazy with the peso.

my wife and i flew to Buenos airies earlier this year for a few days to see the London Philharmonic Orchestra. The whole trip, 4 days was like $1,500 u.s., and we were not traveling on a budget in anyway. I see the hotel is also about 150,000 pesos a night right now.

we stayed at the icon hotel:
http://alvearicon.com/

my bigger concern, for the tourism industry in chile this year, is not the lack of Argentinans visiting chile; but, that Argentina is just a way better deal than southern chile, for both chileans and foreigners. hell, we are planning to take full advantage of the cheap prices this year. We have done three trips in to Argentina this last year already, and had a good time each time.
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