I think the Argentina mess is pretty priced in to Chile's market. Right now it is the trade war and copper price pushing the peso. Seen a few calls for 760 clp to the dollar by years end; I think those are still premature, as we cycle through the seasonal spring low eb in the economy. if by mid-summer, this is still going on, then there is a serious problem.mem wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:27 amPuerto Rico and hurricanes, Argentina and defaults...its hard to keep caring when it just keeps happening over and over and over again.
It's too bad for Chile...just getting double whammyd by the US/China and Argentina in terms of indirect impact of trade and tourism.
We may see yet the USD/CLP approach 800 if this keeps up. We are just a few pesos away from breaking thr all time high of 727
let me put it another way. Chile had 300 million in trade with Argentina in the first 6 months. lets call full year trade 600 -700 million dollars. chile's lithium exports, a relatively minor export of chile, alone is larger than all trade with Argentina. Never mind copper price, lumber, etc prices are all down.
yea, Argentina is an important source of tourism, but tourism is a super minor source of income in chile and even as important as argentinean tourist are to that industry the Argentinan tourist has been pretty MIA for over three years. Chile was already too expensive for most of them.
my wife and I were sitting at the boarder last year, we got stuck in a mega line due to a holiday in chile. In four hours we seen only a couple of dozen cars leaving Argentina, and most had chilean plates. going in to Argentina, there was 10 kilometer long line of almost all chilean vehicles. there was only a handful of big rigs coming out of Argentina in that time.
It should not be that way, but that is mostly due to Argentina's super protectionist policies they never reformed.