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Venezuela crisis

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:23 pm
by proger
kind of scary! poor them, and soon poor us?

Uruguay and Argentina is already full of them, what about chile and the future ?

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:10 pm
by admin
practice listening to Venezuelan accents, because there is no way that crisis gets better before it gets worse.

1). Maduro stays. People keep leaving.

2). Maduro is thrown out, with or without foreign intervention, and the crisis get's worse.

The country is so broken, if Maduro left tomorrow, it would be at least a decade (or more) before the damage was undone. The oil industry is a mess. The ecological disasters are killing everyone. Maduro leveraged up any usable assets, many times the GDP of Venezuela even back at its peak production. Who comes in next, might only be settled with rather bloody civil war.

The only way I see Venezuela being able to get back on it's feet in any sort of reasonable time, is if the international community bans together to nullify all the debt agreements that Maduro implemented. Essentially, they need to shaft everyone from the Russians to Goldman Sachs bond traders.

The other speculation I had about a possible solution: Colombia.

I was pondering the idea, as far out as it is, of Colombia and Venezuela combining again in to one country. Essentially, Colombia annexes Venezuela, with the support of the international community. I am sure there is a whole forum worth of nuts and bolts problems with that idea, but might not be that crazy.

Colombia invades a fully failed state of Venezuela, with the backing of the U.S. and the U.N.; The new "Colombia" get's the resources to rebuild the Venezuela part. Sort, of Berlin wall fall situation. Or more exactly, a newish, Grand Colombia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Colombia

Don't think the other countries are too interested in rejoining, but Colombia and Venezuela might be able to recombine under a democratic central government and constitution. I am sure it would require burning a lot of gun powder to make that happen. It was more of a political thought experiment on my part.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:33 pm
by admin
This article is placing the estimated refugees at 10 million over the next 4 years, and 10000000% inflation in 2019.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/12/28/a ... -refugees/

That is a new all time high estimate I have encountered.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:48 pm
by HybridAmbassador
I think before Colombia, Brazil is more likely to annex Venezuela. With the new trigger itchy, Bolsonaro of Brazil at the helm, the gun-ho Bolsonaro can listen to Maduro and goes in to raid Venezuela pretending to align with Maduro but instead taking Maduro out?

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:24 pm
by nwdiver
HybridAmbassador wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:48 pm
I think before Colombia, Brazil is more likely to annex Venezuela. With the new trigger itchy, Bolsonaro of Brazil at the helm, the gun-ho Bolsonaro can listen to Maduro and goes in to raid Venezuela pretending to align with Maduro but instead taking Maduro out?
Language would be a problem.....

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:53 pm
by proger
and what about chile in all that?

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:27 am
by admin
proger wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:53 pm
and what about chile in all that?
It needs to do what it always does, stay the hell out of the way.

i just see no way the chilean public would remotely get behind anything more than diplomatic lip service, no matter how the venezuela thing breaks.

i am not even sure chile would send in say troops for an international UN piece keeping mission, even in relatively pieceful transition to a new goverment, after the mess with Haiti. bachelet took a relatively good thing, helping out a latin american neighbor, and turned it in to a sociopolitical experiment to exploit an idilogical far left hard line position in chile. chileans were mostly fine with that mission, until they brought the mission home in the form of tens of thousands if haitens. so, no.

on the other hand, perhaps pinera might be inclined to get together with colombia, brazil, usa, etc to put down a marxist socialist in south america, as a warning to any other country that might elect another socialist. at least it might make morales over in bolivia squirm.

I know chile's secretary of defense personnaly. he was my wife's old boss. He does not strike me as being that type of politician. something big would have to happen, for him to get behind an offensive use of chile's military.

even if chile did, i don't think it would be a good idea. chile's military is realy a defense force, and has not fought a real war in over a hundred years. sending in a green military, with a bunch of inexperienced officers, is always a recipe for a disaster.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:34 am
by admin
what would it take for chile's military, with the backing of most of the chilean public, to use the military in an offemsive capacity?

i think it would need to be something that is a direct existential threat to chile. say, bolivia making a grab for chilean territory.

perhaps say if china and russia got militarily agressive in latin america, and a conflict with the u.s., chile might get dragged in to something on the american side; but, even then it would have to something that was a direct threat to chile's sovereignty.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:07 am
by admin
then also, it just takes some stupidity like this to blow the whole thing up.

three venezuelans arrested in a plot to assignate the colombian president:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46714296

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am
by at46
With the US/Israeli hawks plucked clean, things should calm down for Venezuela in the coming year. China/Russia + the City of London now have Trump on their side, hence the plucking of the hawks. The successful resolution of the Venezuela situation, with each party getting something out of it, will help strengthen that alliance. Trump gets to keep US jobs at the US refineries geared to Venezuela oil, China/Russia get to preserve/expand their Venezuela investments (60 billion and counting), City of London gets to showcase their 'financial know-how' in fixing inflation, avoiding sanctions, digital currency, etc.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:30 pm
by admin
at46 wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am
With the US/Israeli hawks plucked clean, things should calm down for Venezuela in the coming year. China/Russia + the City of London now have Trump on their side, hence the plucking of the hawks. The successful resolution of the Venezuela situation, with each party getting something out of it, will help strengthen that alliance. Trump gets to keep US jobs at the US refineries geared to Venezuela oil, China/Russia get to preserve/expand their Venezuela investments (60 billion and counting), City of London gets to showcase their 'financial know-how' in fixing inflation, avoiding sanctions, digital currency, etc.

Re: Venezuela crisis

Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:31 pm
by admin
at46 wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:40 am
With the US/Israeli hawks plucked clean, things should calm down for Venezuela in the coming year. China/Russia + the City of London now have Trump on their side, hence the plucking of the hawks. The successful resolution of the Venezuela situation, with each party getting something out of it, will help strengthen that alliance. Trump gets to keep US jobs at the US refineries geared to Venezuela oil, China/Russia get to preserve/expand their Venezuela investments (60 billion and counting), City of London gets to showcase their 'financial know-how' in fixing inflation, avoiding sanctions, digital currency, etc.
i dont understand what any of that means.