Venezuela crisis

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:41 am

here is a great article on humanitarian aid can only help so much in Venezuela:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2017/ ... y-achieve/

the inftastructure is simply decimated to the point that distributing it can cause more problems than it solves.

which circles back around to the "you break it, you buy it" problem of regime change. if maduro goes today, venezuela is a decade away from a "recovery", at least.

FYI, seems the military has blocked bridges in to colombia with tankers and containers to stop aid from going in if they try to move it.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:48 pm

Maduro's regime collapse in the coming making Putin and Xi very nervous. China and Russia have been investing heavily into Venezuela and when Maduro goes, kiss goodbye to PRC more than 64 Billion and Russia's 16 Billion infused into Vz so far!
Oh and viewing Maduro's TV interview, when he said he wrote to Papa Francisco to intervene between him and Guaido possible meeting!
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:03 pm

What is happening in Venezuela now.https://youtu.be/bEvHwiJWgAY
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:59 am

Well, Maduro has blocked the bridge to Colombia to stop aid coming in. So, now time for the show-down.

So, I went looking around to see if I could get a sense of the posture of the U.S. military in the region. Essentially, where are the air craft carriers?

Could not find a location on the SOUTHCOM assigned U.S. air craft carrier group (sure they are somewhere in the Caribbean), but did find there is a heavy lift helicopter army battalion that just happens to be over the boarder in Panama working on building an outpost in the Darrin Gap (jungle between Colombia and Panama).

http://www.jtfb.southcom.mil/Units/1-22 ... -Regiment/

hummmm
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:01 pm

woops, found them, or at least some of them. They appear to be testing a new combat group, off the coast of Chile and Peru:

http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.ph ... group.html
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by mem » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:39 pm

So....apparently Hezbollah is in Venezuela now.

Pompeo says the US is "obligated" to fight Hezbollah in Venezuela

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 67186.html


Does anyone really buy this? Talk about deja vu...

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by Huelshoff » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:06 pm

Sounds like the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. I wouldn't be surprised if Maduro has let some Hezbollah affiliated folks in, but a threat to anyone? Maybe to themselves. Trump did claim recently that they have been finding prayer rugs on the southern border. Apparently he saw that in a movie. Too much Executive Time.

I'm hearing more and more that Trump's base is beginning to fracture at bit. I fear that he may think the only way to stay in power (and out of jail) is to start a war. One could interpret his controversial statement about investigations in the SOTU that way.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by nwdiver » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:11 pm

mem wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:39 pm
So....apparently Hezbollah is in Venezuela now.

Pompeo says the US is "obligated" to fight Hezbollah in Venezuela

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 67186.html


Does anyone really buy this? Talk about deja vu...
Next it will be the need to "remove" the weapons of mass destruction........
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by mem » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:39 pm

nwdiver wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:11 pm
mem wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:39 pm
So....apparently Hezbollah is in Venezuela now.

Pompeo says the US is "obligated" to fight Hezbollah in Venezuela

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 67186.html


Does anyone really buy this? Talk about deja vu...
Next it will be the need to "remove" the weapons of mass destruction........
:lol: Yeah and Osama is actually still alive and living in the palace with Maduro...send in Seal Team 6!
What they must think of the average US citizen...

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:50 am

so watch a power cut in venezuela, while maduro is live on the air giving a "press" conference:


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=akZGBNjBLus
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:01 am

so my speculation on when military force will be used, if it will be used, is sometime around 3-4 weeks.

why?

it will insure that venezuela's military has no gas.

rumorers are that most gas stations and storage facilities in venezuela are down to less than a day of reserves. figure reserves for the military are in similar bad shape, after looting and running around to try and control protests.

in wwll, germany and japan basicaly lost all ability to muster any offensive action, once their gas supply was cut off.

the u.s. military, however they might get involved (e.g. colombia proxy war), won't make any moves untill they are sure that maduro can not mobilize an effective fighting force. they might however fain an imminent attack, just to make maduro burn more gas responding to ghosts.

imagine how much diesel you need to move even a relatively small armored unit, let alone a division or something larger. those russian T series tanks were never accused of being hybrids, and the trucks they move around on use almost as much diesel.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:31 pm

what china stands to loose in venezuela:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... al-turmoil

over half of china's investment in latin america went to maduro.
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