Venezuela crisis

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FrankPintor
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by FrankPintor » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:48 pm

I can't see anything dramatic happening yet... US support for Juan Guaidó amounts to some bluster and $20 million, like really, less than a dollar per person humanitarian aid? That was a really embarrassing offer. The only real "action" from the US until now is to refuse to withdraw their diplomatic personnel, which looks fine until the lights go out and the water runs out in the embassy.

I'm sure Colombia has lots of troops deployed close to or on the border, but on the principle that if you break Venezuela you own it, I can't see them going in unless there's a direct threat. Same for the US, and the blowback would be huge: before any marines go in and before any aircraft carriers show up, a bunch of people in Ohio and Oklahoma will be playing video games with drones and missiles, and the casualty figures will be fearful. Deploy a reaper to Petare, and half a hillside full of houses and people will come down with every strike. Remember that Venezuela is not Syria, it had one of the highest smartphone penetrations in the world when you could still get accurate data from there, and people are very connected: the photos and videos of the casualties will be posted across every social media you can imagine. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Also, it's a bit ridiculous imagining the GNB will be the leader of a revolt, these are some of the worst thugs around, and Venezuelans are absolutely cowed by them. You look at the body language in some of the videos over the last few days, the GNB drag people out of the crowd, and everyone else gets out of the way. Those guys ride two to a motorbike around Caracas carrying rifles, it would be too easy to bump them off the road and teach them some respect, but it doesn't happen. Venezuelans are good at putting on a show, less good at following through. And Maduro doesn't have a retirement plan. Keep the popcorn handy, this show will run a while longer I think.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:21 pm

Well, seems the Russians have arrived.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... ect-maduro

Supposedly Russian military contractors have arrived. Now, that is reported on zerohedge, so got to take it with a grain of salt and something else.

There is however a very good explanation for that, and does not involve a whole lot of conspiracy.

Anytime you have any conflict flair up around the world, it is a dinner bell for all the mercenaries and private contractors to come running. I am sure my friend in the K&R biz just doubled up on his staff in Venezuela. The Israelis x-Mossad or whatever are particularly quick to show-up around Central America when things gets unstable. Black water guys start crawling out of the sewer. Hell, the Russians might have just been the last to receive the party invitation.

You got billions of dollars in oil and other resources to protect / grab, and it is not exactly clear who owns it, that tends to get a party started. We use to talk about the 'spoils of war'; but, if you can just grab the spoils and skip the war, it is much more profitable (to someone).
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AnciaVagar
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:10 pm

Considering that Guaidó is from the same AN that declared most of the Russian debt illegal, and that Russia is last in line for crumbs from a (potential) liquidation of Citgo, Russia must have a higher than passing interest in propping up Maduro (or whoever Chavista). With her Cuban connections, I look for Russia to have a substantial effect during any large scale violence, and in the aftermath -- covert and maybe overt.

China's actions will be much more subtle.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by FrankPintor » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:45 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:21 pm
Well, seems the Russians have arrived.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... ect-maduro

Supposedly Russian military contractors have arrived. Now, that is reported on zerohedge, so got to take it with a grain of salt and something.
Well, given what happened at Maduro’s last major outing with the supposed drone attack / apartment gas cylinder explosion (just to recap, the soldiers on parade fled in all directions, his wife grabbed onto and hid behind a military aide who has supposedly more than a simple working relationship with her, and an aide de camp fainted on stage) the only surprise is why did it take him so long to get competent protection?

But as far as the larger picture is concerned, Russia too is putting on a show, the pictures of the supersonic bombers touching down on Maiquetía were impressive but only for propaganda, I don’t think Russia can project power that far and that exposed to the USA
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:19 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:45 pm
Well, given what happened at Maduro’s last major outing with the supposed drone attack / apartment gas cylinder explosion (just to recap, the soldiers on parade fled in all directions, his wife grabbed onto and hid behind a military aide who has supposedly more than a simple working relationship with her, and an aide de camp fainted on stage) the only surprise is why did it take him so long to get competent protection?...
That's odd; it didn't seem so hilarious when Maduro talked about all that. =)
[/sarcasm]

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FrankPintor
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by FrankPintor » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:08 pm

You have no sense of humour, pretty much everything Maduro says is laughable. Should I find you the link for the military parade in question? It was all over YouTube
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:17 am

FrankPintor wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:45 pm
admin wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:21 pm
Well, seems the Russians have arrived.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... ect-maduro

Supposedly Russian military contractors have arrived. Now, that is reported on zerohedge, so got to take it with a grain of salt and something.
Well, given what happened at Maduro’s last major outing with the supposed drone attack / apartment gas cylinder explosion (just to recap, the soldiers on parade fled in all directions, his wife grabbed onto and hid behind a military aide who has supposedly more than a simple working relationship with her, and an aide de camp fainted on stage) the only surprise is why did it take him so long to get competent protection?

But as far as the larger picture is concerned, Russia too is putting on a show, the pictures of the supersonic bombers touching down on Maiquetía were impressive but only for propaganda, I don’t think Russia can project power that far and that exposed to the USA
yea that is not russia's M.O. these days; but, they know they can get just involved sufficently to cause trouble and generaly be a pain in the ass. distraction is more their style.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:19 am

security council meeting live:
http://webtv.un.org/live/
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:25 am

chile, among others are going to speak.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:52 pm

Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:13 am

the chinese seem suspiciously mia in this whole mess. think i last seen they have something like 60-80 billion in loans and have not been getting their oil shipments for a couple of years.

a few years ago there were some stories floating around that they had been meeting with the opposition. that might have deal of sorts already.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:07 pm

u.s. is considering handing over u.s. assets, including the citigo, to the oposition.

https://triblive.com/business/headlines ... ernment-it

countries have been refusing to send the gold to maduro.

looks like russia and china are going to get shafted for doing deals with the devil.
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