Venezuela crisis

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HybridAmbassador
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:04 pm

Well, it seems that Maduro's army soldiers feeling the heat and also getting hungry without enough food ration given to them same as per the civilians scavenging for food as well. It was reported that more than 326 soldiers at once deserted into Brazil and more and more deserting Venezuelan army everyday on.


Hundreds of Venezuela soldiers choose to desert army: ‘We’re still in time to change history’ https://globalnews.ca/news/4999377/vene ... sert-army/
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:07 am

for obvious reasons, i always find these "legal" representation dilemas and conflict of interest issues fascinating.

will the real goverment of Venezuela please stand-up?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maduro-g ... 52587.html

let me see if i can sum this all up:

so the law firm in the u.s., that use to represent Pdsva and maduro's regime, has taken it upon themselves to defect and represent guido's government (if you even want to call it that), and aparrently with no formal legal mandate or agreement with guaido's.

however, having been put in similar positions (although nowhere near as screwed up as this situation) of trying to figure out which party we represent, when a client breaks in to multiple conflicted parties, assuming all other things are equal (e.g. we just need to pick a side, and tell the other they need to find their own attorney),
this one probably comes down to a simple: "got money, no problem" decision for the law firm.

maduro does not have control of any money that can be used to pay his lawyers in the states (sanctionsn, but their are some exceptions for attorneys), and the "client" and all their representatives might be dead soon. although the same might be said for guiado's side too.

but, then that leaves the attorneys in the states, representing guiado, for something maduro did (siezing a mine, as a good socialist tend to do). what exactly is in the best interest of the client here now?

do they aproach the other side and offer to give the mine back? pay them compensation? etc? or just tell them the deal was illegitimate from the start, too bad you made a deal with a murderous socialist dictator?
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:45 pm

Brazil oil exports went up by about 500 thousand barrels per day in 2018 - about the same amount as the drop in Venezuelan oil exports over the period. Venezuelan oil is being sold as Brazilian, at a huge discount, making a lot of money for a lot of people. It also means a shift of power within Venezuela from the chavista politicians to the generals and secret service people who ensure the safety transit of oil. No wonder they're not rushing to embrace the pretty boy Guadó.

Russia's job in Venezuela is to prevent the formation of the international alliance of marauders - oil users vs oil suppliers - headed by the US and UK and aided and abetted by China and India, who also benefit from the cheap Venezuelan oil that they get in exchange for their shitty goods.

The only real threat to Russia in Venezuela was the potential loss of Rosneft's stake in PDVSA through US litigation. The threat was countered with the arrest in Russia of the American head of the Vostok-Barrings investment fund and potential judicial confiscation of the fund's assets.

I guess Pompeo's call to Lavrov today was to congratulate him on the game well played.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:40 pm

at46 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:45 pm
Brazil oil exports went up by about 500 thousand barrels per day in 2018 - about the same amount as the drop in Venezuelan oil exports over the period. Venezuelan oil is being sold as Brazilian, at a huge discount, making a lot of money for a lot of people. It also means a shift of power within Venezuela from the chavista politicians to the generals and secret service people who ensure the safety transit of oil. No wonder they're not rushing to embrace the pretty boy Guadó.

Russia's job in Venezuela is to prevent the formation of the international alliance of marauders - oil users vs oil suppliers - headed by the US and UK and aided and abetted by China and India, who also benefit from the cheap Venezuelan oil that they get in exchange for their shitty goods.

The only real threat to Russia in Venezuela was the potential loss of Rosneft's stake in PDVSA through US litigation. The threat was countered with the arrest in Russia of the American head of the Vostok-Barrings investment fund and potential judicial confiscation of the fund's assets.

I guess Pompeo's call to Lavrov today was to congratulate him on the game well played.
Gosh, you sure do know a lot of secret stuff!

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:45 pm

AnciaVagar wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:40 pm
at46 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:45 pm
Brazil oil exports went up by about 500 thousand barrels per day in 2018 - about the same amount as the drop in Venezuelan oil exports over the period. Venezuelan oil is being sold as Brazilian, at a huge discount, making a lot of money for a lot of people. It also means a shift of power within Venezuela from the chavista politicians to the generals and secret service people who ensure the safety transit of oil. No wonder they're not rushing to embrace the pretty boy Guadó.

Russia's job in Venezuela is to prevent the formation of the international alliance of marauders - oil users vs oil suppliers - headed by the US and UK and aided and abetted by China and India, who also benefit from the cheap Venezuelan oil that they get in exchange for their shitty goods.

The only real threat to Russia in Venezuela was the potential loss of Rosneft's stake in PDVSA through US litigation. The threat was countered with the arrest in Russia of the American head of the Vostok-Barrings investment fund and potential judicial confiscation of the fund's assets.

I guess Pompeo's call to Lavrov today was to congratulate him on the game well played.
Gosh, you sure do know a lot of secret stuff!
Sorry if it caused a momentary dissonance in your echo chamber :)

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by bert.douglas » Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:07 pm

at46 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:45 pm
Brazil oil exports went up by about 500 thousand barrels per day in 2018 - about the same amount as the drop in Venezuelan oil exports over the period. Venezuelan oil is being sold as Brazilian, at a huge discount, making a lot of money for a lot of people.
This seems unlikely to me.

Maybe you could elaborate on how this works? How is oil moved from Venezuela to Brazil? How do you make a lot of money by selling at a discount?

Maybe there is another simpler explanation.
(1) Venezuela is incompetent at managing their oil production.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/12/venezuel ... ing-apart/

(2) Brazil has a new oil field coming online.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lula_oil_field

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by Youno36 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:21 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:33 pm
This article is placing the estimated refugees at 10 million over the next 4 years, and 10000000% inflation in 2019.


That is a new all time high estimate I have encountered.
Thank you for sharing link

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:55 pm

bert.douglas wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:07 pm
Maybe you could elaborate on how this works? How is oil moved from Venezuela to Brazil? How do you make a lot of money by selling at a discount?
There was an accident in the Black Sea recently where they were transferring fuel from a sanctioned ship to an unsanctioned ship. But that's an extreme scenario. My guess is a little creative paperwork is all that's needed in the case of repackaging Venezuelan oil to sell it as Brazilian - especially when it goes to China or India. As to price, I multiplied 500K barrels of daily production by USD60 and got USD30 mln. Per day. You might not think that's a lot of money, but I feel you'd be in the minority there.
bert.douglas wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:07 pm
(2) Brazil has a new oil field coming online.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lula_oil_field
So it hasn't actually begun production then?

"The Lula field lies below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) of water and then 5,000 metres (16,000 ft) of salt, sand and rocks". Good luck working that field :)

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:13 pm

at46 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:55 pm
bert.douglas wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:07 pm
Maybe you could elaborate on how this works? How is oil moved from Venezuela to Brazil? How do you make a lot of money by selling at a discount?
There was an accident in the Black Sea recently where they were transferring fuel from a sanctioned ship to an unsanctioned ship. But that's an extreme scenario. My guess is a little creative paperwork is all that's needed in the case of repackaging Venezuelan oil to sell it as Brazilian - especially when it goes to China or India. As to price, I multiplied 500K barrels of daily production by USD60 and got USD30 mln. Per day. You might not think that's a lot of money, but I feel you'd be in the minority there.
That's some sophisticated and insightful accounting you have there.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:36 pm

AnciaVagar wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:13 pm
at46 wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:55 pm
bert.douglas wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:07 pm
Maybe you could elaborate on how this works? How is oil moved from Venezuela to Brazil? How do you make a lot of money by selling at a discount?
There was an accident in the Black Sea recently where they were transferring fuel from a sanctioned ship to an unsanctioned ship. But that's an extreme scenario. My guess is a little creative paperwork is all that's needed in the case of repackaging Venezuelan oil to sell it as Brazilian - especially when it goes to China or India. As to price, I multiplied 500K barrels of daily production by USD60 and got USD30 mln. Per day. You might not think that's a lot of money, but I feel you'd be in the minority there.
That's some sophisticated and insightful accounting you have there.
It's a lot of fun, especially when China and India pay in barter :)

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:18 pm

I doubt anyone making money by re-selling that "asphalt compound thick oil from Venezuela" Too costly attempting to refine it for nafta or gasoline grade product. But China craving for making more asphalted highways no less, so Vz's thick oil have use after all I guessing.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:03 am

so bachelet finaly makes some sort of "strong" statement about venezuela.

https://www.latercera.com/mundo/noticia ... es/556474/

but watch the words that are carefully used to dance around using the violation of "human rights" to instead use the more legally watered down violation of "civil rights".

FYI, yestrrday had a low level SA-330 helicopter pass over my house. i have never seen one in southern chile. i have seen them on manuvers near vina.

perhaps it means nothing.

i just find it strange that i am suddendly seeing a whole lot of chile's top military hardware hanging over my head, after seeing almost none of it for years this far south.
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