Venezuela crisis

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HybridAmbassador
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:43 pm

admin wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:31 pm
what china stands to loose in venezuela:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... al-turmoil

over half of china's investment in latin america went to maduro.
And don't forget the little Napoleon er, Putin's also invested in Venezuela along his buddy Xi more than $17 Billion.

Russia is Venezuela’s most important foreign sponsor after China. Data on these countries’ financing of Venezuela are scarce, but China’s investment has been estimated to be as much as $70 billion, most of it to be paid back in oil. Russia and its state-owned companies have lent and injected more than $17 billion over the last 20 years. President Putin promised the latest $6 billion, plus 600,000 tons of grain, in December.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... imir-putin
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at46
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:10 pm

The money is secondary, especially since the Venezuelan pretty boy promised to pay it back to both China and Russia if he comes to power. What Russia stands to loose is the reputation of being able to protect a country from US military aggression. I don't think it'll come to that - there'll be no intervention. Too many people are making a lot of money from grey trading of Venezuelan oil and gold and stand to make even more the longer this show goes on. The crisis is all fizzle and no steak. Trump needs it to push through the wall, especially given Mexico's conveniently contrarian stance. Once the wall is approved, everyone will forget about Venezuela.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:35 pm

at46 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:10 pm
The money is secondary, especially since the Venezuelan pretty boy promised to pay it back to both China and Russia if he comes to power. What Russia stands to loose is the reputation of being able to protect a country from US military aggression. I don't think it'll come to that - there'll be no intervention. Too many people are making a lot of money from grey trading of Venezuelan oil and gold and stand to make even more the longer this show goes on. The crisis is all fizzle and no steak. Trump needs it to push through the wall, especially given Mexico's conveniently contrarian stance. Once the wall is approved, everyone will forget about Venezuela.
Money is secondary to Putin? Hmmm, he just changed mother Russia's SS beneficiary age to 65 and older when average Russian life span is limited to age 60! He is craving for money,money and more money, so if this, Maduro to go down, he will be in a very bad situation with the Russian people ....
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by at46 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:25 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:35 pm
at46 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:10 pm
The money is secondary, especially since the Venezuelan pretty boy promised to pay it back to both China and Russia if he comes to power. What Russia stands to loose is the reputation of being able to protect a country from US military aggression. I don't think it'll come to that - there'll be no intervention. Too many people are making a lot of money from grey trading of Venezuelan oil and gold and stand to make even more the longer this show goes on. The crisis is all fizzle and no steak. Trump needs it to push through the wall, especially given Mexico's conveniently contrarian stance. Once the wall is approved, everyone will forget about Venezuela.
Money is secondary to Putin? Hmmm, he just changed mother Russia's SS beneficiary age to 65 and older when average Russian life span is limited to age 60! He is craving for money,money and more money, so if this, Maduro to go down, he will be in a very bad situation with the Russian people ....
Meh, I'm sorry, but you have no clue. Here's something much more intelligent, if you can actually follow it.

Trump’s tweets on Venezuela actually strengthened Maduro instead of hurting him. The threat of open and brazen interference only helped mobilize Maduro’s fans. If you want to stage a color revolution in Venezuela, you don’t wait till after Maduro’s inauguration to begin the attack.

The freshly minted Latin American lefty connected with US Dems is not Trump’s puppet, because these are the very same Dems who are scheming to impeach that very same Trump. Trump gave only virtual support to the Venezuelan Democrat, while giving real support to Maduro, so that Venezuelan generals, who have no desire to fight with their neighbors and are fully prepared to compromise with NY and London financiers, would lean more heavily on secret services informally headed by the former Venezuelan Vice-President Cabello.

Vice-President Cabello, who is being investigated by the same New York prosecutors that are also pursuing Trump. The investigation has to do with his links to the Colombian "guerrillas". Interestingly, the Bush clan is also linked to the same guerrillas, and Bush protégé in power these days is Bolton.

Thus, Trump's virtual intervention in Venezuela was aimed at preserving the status quo and balance of forces in Caracas, supporting local secret services closely tied with the Bushists. An attempt by Trump’s opponents to sway the situation in a sensitive geopolitical area and thus force him out from his hardened defense position, failed. Furthermore, Trump and Bolton managed to use their opponents’ initiative to spur their own political attack and regain initiative in Congress. The best thing is that the initiative was virtual and required no real action, just like the shutdown.

Trump’s continued pressure on the Dems with the shutdown was beginning to cost him. So he simply suspended it for a while, putting it on the back burner until the next opportune moment. Now he’s got an even better pretext for the potential national emergency on the Mexican border after Mexico turned out in support of Maduro.

All the talk of the virtual war in the Columbian jungle helps divert attention from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which, under different circumstances, would have been used for a massive info attack on Trump. Europeans were also happy to see Washington establishment divert their attention to inter-American affairs and, therefore, gave them all the virtual support they could muster.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:37 am

so looking around for any more signs of the u.s. military, here is an interesting rumor of a build-up of u.s. ships in the carribean:

https://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/2018/1 ... venezuela/

my spectulation is that group off the pacific coast hangs around and drifts north, allowing plenty of close support firepower to venezuelan territory where the venezuelan military lacks visibility and ability to retaliate. Colombia allows for use of their air space. any other resources can be quickly moved from the u.s. after an initial first strike, or other bases in the region. not like florida is far away, and they can transit the Panama canal if needed. don't think an aircraft carrier group is all that useful in this situation, as the u.s. has plenty basing right in the area (official and unofficial).

of course that all assumes this escalates.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:38 am

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:14 pm

then there is this very nice article in the military times about how "all options are on the table" really means there are no plans:

https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/c ... e-meaning/
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by Julito » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:21 pm

Interesting article which argues Venuzuela actually missed the boat decades ago and it wouldn't have mattered who was in power, it´d still be broke and busted today.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... ering.html

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:30 pm

well pinera tells bachelet that time is up for her "reflections" on the situation, and she needs to something.

https://www.infobae.com/america/venezue ... e=amp-type
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by admin » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:47 pm

Julito wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:21 pm
Interesting article which argues Venuzuela actually missed the boat decades ago and it wouldn't have mattered who was in power, it´d still be broke and busted today.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... ering.html

yea i basicaly argued a few years ago on one of these venezuela threads that venezuelas oil industry is worthless, and will stay worthless forever, as the oil industry is so broken that by the time it could be fixed oil prices needed to pay for it will be gone forever.

probably to the tune of 100 to 300 billion dollars in investment is needed, just get the oil industry covering their own domestic needs again.

yet, i still see comments and articles floating around from anti-maduro, but pro-socialist, venezuelan exhiles acting as if oil backed socialism paradise will be reinstated, along with real goverment freebie, if they just get rid of maduro and keep the united states out.

venezuela has a very rude awaking coming, if they try to pick-up and continue on, as if chaviz never happened. venezuela was in serious trouble before chavez, just a lot of people alive simply don't remember it.
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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:14 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:47 pm
...
yet, i still see comments and articles floating around from anti-maduro, but pro-socialist, venezuelan exhiles acting as if oil backed socialism paradise will be reinstated, along with real goverment freebie, if they just get rid of maduro and keep the united states out.
...
That shows how deep the leftist indoctrination runs. Vz needs five top priorities now: agricultural independence, functioning practical health care, economic freedom, civil liberties, and sovereign governance.

Energy independence is a little lower, and exporting energy is much lower on the list.

Hopefully there will not be much money in Vz oil for a few decades. We should remember that Vz oil revenue attracted the international thieves who created the present suffering. Eventually, Vz ultra heavy oil will be worth more as chemical feedstock and then the investment will become available. Until then, Vz should focus on achieving a reasonable standard of living while avoiding the "resources curse" of oil money.

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Re: Venezuela crisis

Post by AnciaVagar » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:44 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:14 pm
then there is this very nice article in the military times about how "all options are on the table" really means there are no plans:

https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/c ... e-meaning/
The lengthy article really doesn't say anything (but a few jabs at Trump). If Trump said tomorrow "I as commander in chief remove all military options from any consideration, effective immediately" couldn't he just as quickly reverse that and acknowledge that all options in fact remain available? The undefined "military option" continues to exist regardless of what anybody says. Don't buy the BigMedia jive.

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