The Trump Administration

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frozen-north
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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by frozen-north » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:47 pm

There is no chaos, an interesting comparison:

- White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders brushed off comments that the White House is in chaos on July 31, saying: "If you want to see chaos, come to my house with three preschoolers. This doesn't hold a candle to that."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/na ... video.html
Is it like two preschoolers?

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:11 pm

For all the Trump haters, Trump lovers, Trump wait-and-see on the fence, etc.:

I believe the next real drama to unfold will be the battle over the debt ceiling as it is calculated that the gov definitely cannot make it to the end of their Sept. 30 fiscal year without an increase (so probable battle will be August).

Lots of intrigue, double-dealing, back-stabbing, smoke-filled rooms, bend-overs and not, conspiracies, etc.

combine the outome to world reaction over new Russia sanctions and effect on USD wolrd reserve currency status...

Stay tuned folks,














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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:16 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:I believe the next real drama to unfold will be the battle over the debt ceiling as it is calculated that the gov definitely cannot make it to the end of their Sept. 30 fiscal year without an increase (so probable battle will be this month).
I always figured if anything good is going to happen, it'll probably have to wait until after the debt ceiling gets raised. Not that I have much hope left of anything good happening.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by nwdiver » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:05 pm

.........so is Huckabee the new comm director, she will say whatever she is told to say and then something she should keep to herself.........she is as bad as Trump, she has no filters........
It's all about the wine.

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by cali_chile48 » Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:12 am

Anther fiscal battle coming soon is the issue of periodic government payments to the insurance companies. The Congress seems generally opposed to the idea of withholding those payments, but Pumpkinhead seems to like the idea. He sees it as a way to force the Dems to negotiate the end of the ACA. It wouldn't have that effect, and it would put the administration in legal jeopardy.

It would also be risky politically for the prez and any Republicans who support the idea. The congressman care about that....I'm not sure Pumpkinhead does. He may increase the bet....and if he loses....well....there are lots of options for him. He could become a Chris Christie type of chief executive, he could do something to get himself intentionally impeached, or he could resign for health reasons and claim he can't remember anything.

John Kelly might be able to make the White House staff run more professionally, but he won't be able to keep Pumpkinhead from blurting out insane shit at 5 AM and he doesn't have much influence over Congress nor insight into how DC works.

Bannon might not be a bad strategic choice for Communications Director. He's got media experience, he understands policy and the administration doesn't have to spend a long time trying to convince another capable person that it's not career suicide to take a position with them.

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by El Zorro » Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:25 pm

cali_chile48 wrote:John Kelly might be able to make the White House staff run more professionally, but he won't be able to keep Pumpkinhead from blurting out insane shit at 5 AM and he doesn't have much influence over Congress nor insight into how DC works.
Bringing Kelly into the fold may very well be the straw that broke the camel’s back in this whole comedy of errors.

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by admin » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:05 pm

Do you in your heart of hearts think this administration can do this in a crisis?


https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... picks=true


The most terrifying thing I have ever heard on tv, was a close friend of trump and family repeating that they are in private just like you see them in public.


P.s. call me if you have any doubts, and we can hook you up with a safe place out of range of n. Korea, russia, china, etc.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by admin » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:04 am

so Trump, now that he is president, thinks the American economy is great, and is willing to take all the credit for the stock market run-up.

First, not so sure about that. The dow hitting record highs, is not the same, as a good economy. Most of the earnings growth, is foreign earnings growth from the big american trans-nationals making money somewhere else. Even at that, international markets outperformed the U.S. market so far this year by a large margin. So, relatively speaking, the U.S. market was one of the worse performing markets in the World. Chile's little IPSA, in spite of all bad domestic economic news, is up like 23%, bouncing around a 20-25% return this year. The s&p is up like 10%. However, that is all an aside really to my main point.

You see the problem is that main street might be impressed with the apparent impervious markets to trumps fumbles; but, what main street America really does not pay attention to or does not understand, is that the dollar has been reacting negatively to Trump fumbles all along. Which functionally masks the stock market moves, and dampens any interest rate hikes by the Fed. The market, sooner or later, will reflect this divergence; the question is will it do it all at once, or little by little. My call is, the longer it takes the market to start reflecting this, the more violent and sudden it will be when it does.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/03/investi ... index.html


Donald, if you reading, are you sure you want to own this one?

https://thefelderreport.com/2017/08/02/ ... om-bubble/

Because, there is a good chance, this is about to get very real, very fast:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-st ... 2017-08-05

I was reading some financial article the other day about the low returns on a particular hedge fund. There was only one comment at the bottom of the article, that was the proverbial shoe shine boy giving stock tips, where a guy said something like, "I can beat them. It is all about the FANGs".

There was a great article some time ago I read. They were interviewing brokers, about what stocks would be around in a 100 years. Some moron millennial with a newly printed economics diploma said "buy facebook". A little bit older gen-xer broker said, "I really can't with a straight face tell you that Facebook is going to be around in 100 years".

I have the sneaky suspicion, that a lot of the run-up we are seeing, is driven by a millennial generation that was not quite in the game in 2008, on a large scale, but they are now. If there is one thing that defines the millennials, it is their incredible arrogance to delude themselves with "this time will be different", "let's change things just to change them and claim they are ours", "we have been so pampered and protected, nothing can hurt us" type attitudes. The sort of attitudes that really burns you good when a stock market bubble pops.

Could we muddle through another year? Perhaps.

Even if it does pop, I like this line I seen the other day.

Stock markets always hit higher highs, they never hit lower lows. Which, historically, is rather true. The question is do you have 20-30 years?

If you do, this is what it looks like, so relax:
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/turn-off-t ... 0e4bce9e16

But, for Donald, again, will he own this one. I doubt it. The liar and chief, as always, will blame it on someone else (e.g. congress, democrats, mexico).
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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by frozen-north » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:01 am

admin wrote:
The dow hitting record highs, is not the same, as a good economy.
I have heard only one media comment saying exactly that, but looking for something in print I found a few ones less elated about the wonders of 'the new record high':
Don't confuse Dow Jones records for overall economic prosperity

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) is not the same as the stock market and the stock market is not the same thing as the economy;...

The Dow is a handful of public companies; it is not all public companies and public companies are only a fraction of the overall U.S. economy. There are large parts of America that are still unemployed or under-employed, a raging stock market means nothing to them on a daily basis.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/f ... prosperity

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by admin » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:55 am

Here is much simpler, and relevant example: Chile

IPSA just closed out at all time new high, by the numbers: 5100 and change on Friday.

Can not find it now, but there was an article last week about how that is not really the true new all time high. Adjusted for inflation, exchange rate, and so on, to beat the all time high back in 2011, the ipsa needs to move north of 6000.

Yet, the economy in Chile is hardly growing, if not already running up against a technical recession (If you use the 2-3 quarters negative GDP, definition). The reported growth has been more or less a rounding error in the stats. Unemployment, at 7-10%, and if they did not mess with the stats, would be much higher. I think it is more like 12-15% in most of the country, if you don't bite on the bachelet administration's fuzzy new use of "self-employment" to hide the real unemployment numbers. Some 12% of the country is "working" without a formal employment contract of any sort. How do you even accurately count that?

Yet, with a few exceptions, almost none of the big IPSA movers are loosing money. They are, for the most part, making the money in some other country.

I seen an interview with a agro / tractor manufacture in the U.S. the other day, that said over 50% of their sales were overseas; but, they are not bringing that money back in to the states. They can report to their shareholders, as having made the money; but, they are not repatriating it for mostly tax reasons.

Similar thing is going on with Chilean companies. They are not investing in Chile right now using their foreign profits. They are however either investing using their low interest loans domestically when they do, and / or, taking their low interest money and investing it somewhere else.

So, very easy to have a strong stock market, and crappy domestic economy these days.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by nikotromus » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:01 pm

admin wrote:so Trump, now that he is president, thinks the American economy is great, and is willing to take all the credit for the stock market run-up.
Alternatively, he is THERE to take the credit for the stock market. This 'big nasty juicy bubble' (like 1000 points ago in the DOW) or whatever he called it while campaigning. And, the people will believe that Trump caused the inevitable crash - by design, as he has gone out of his way to own it.

By design depends on whether you believe that American presidents are selected or elected.

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Re: The Trump Administration

Post by at46 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:11 am

Falabella has just announced a billion dollar investment in logistics and IT over four years to bulk up their operations in view of the apparently imminent entry of Amazon into the country. Not bad, especially the Amazon thing :)

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