Brexit

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Brexit

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:34 pm

Last weekend was with a friend at a English styled pub and encountered a group of British and Scots in the midst of a very heated debate about stay in EU or exit.

Some Brits were pro exit then, but the Scots were saying, if people vote for the exit, then so the Scots also wanting separation from the Brits..? Topic of discussion were that 10 years ago, only about 80 thousand Polish in the UK. But now 10 years later, that number almost 1 million. Too many free ingress from east Europe into Britain and taking available jobs from Brits.

Some of the Brits in the heated discussion heard from my booth next to them, hearing talks that the UK has many commonwealth associated countries that speak the same lingo so Britain can go independent and benefit doing a direct commerce with them. German and the French making all the rules and Britain has a no say in the EU policy making?

The Pro s and the Cons of leaving the EU. The referendum. Personally, hoping that the UK should stay within EU though.




The greatest uncertainty associated with leaving the EU is that no country has ever done it before, so no one can predict the exact result. Nevertheless, many have tried.

Membership fee
Leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving, as the country would no longer contribute to the EU budget. Last year, Britain paid in £13bn, but it also received £4.5bn worth of spending, says Full Fact "so the UK's net contribution was £8.5bn". That's about 7 per cent of what the Government spends on the NHS each year.

What's harder to determine is whether the financial advantages of EU membership, such as free trade and inward investment (see below) outweigh the upfront costs.

Trade
The EU is a single market in which no tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between member states. "More than 50 per cent of our exports go to EU countries," says Sky News, "and our membership allows us to have a say over how trading rules are drawn up."

Britain also benefits from trade deals between the EU and other world powers. "The EU is currently negotiating with the US to create the world's biggest free trade area," says the BBC, "something that will be highly beneficial to British business."

Britain risks losing some of that negotiating power by leaving the EU, but it would be free to establish its own trade agreements.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage believes Britain could follow the lead of Norway, which has access to the single market but is not bound by EU laws on areas such as agriculture, justice and home affairs. But others argue that an "amicable divorce" would not be possible.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum
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Re: Brexit

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:55 pm

The economist. The reaal danger of Brexit.

THE battle is joined, at last. David Cameron has called a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union for June 23rd, promising to campaign hard to stay in. What began as a gambit to hold together his divided Tory party is turning into an alarmingly close contest. Betting markets put the odds that Britons opt to leave at two-to-one; some polls suggest the voters are evenly split; several cabinet ministers are campaigning for Brexit. There is a real chance that in four months’ time Britain could be casting off from Europe’s shores.

That would be grave news—and not just for Britain. A vote to leave would damage the economy, certainly in the short term and probably in the long run. (As financial markets woke up to the prospect, the pound this week fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 2009.) It would imperil Britain’s security, when threats from terrorists and foreign powers are at their most severe in years. And far from reclaiming sovereignty, Britons would be forgoing clout, by giving up membership of a powerful club whose actions they can influence better from within than without. Those outside Britain marvelling at this proposed act of self-harm should worry for themselves, too. Brexit would deal a heavy blow to Europe, a continent already on the ropes. It would uncouple the world’s fifth-largest economy from its biggest market, and unmoor the fifth-largest defence spender from its allies. Poorer, less secure and disunited, the new EU would be weaker; the West, reliant on the balancing forces of America and Europe, would be enfeebled, too.

Dreams, meet reality
The Brexiters’ case is that Britain is held back by Europe: unshackled, it could soar as an open economy that continued to trade with the EU and all round the world. That is possible in theory, but as our briefing (see Briefing) explains, it is not how things would work in practice. At a minimum, the EU would allow full access to its single market only in return for adherence to rules that Eurosceptics are keen to jettison. If Norway and Switzerland (whose arrangements with the EU many Brexiters idolise) are a guide, the union would also demand the free movement of people and a big payment to its budget before allowing unfettered access to the market.

Worse, the EU would have a strong incentive to impose a harsh settlement to discourage other countries from leaving. The Brexit camp’s claim that Europe needs Britain more than the other way round is fanciful: the EU takes almost half Britain’s exports, whereas Britain takes less than 10% of the EU’s; and the British trade deficit is mostly with the Germans and Spanish, not with the other 25 countries that would have to agree on a new trade deal.

To some Eurosceptics these hardships would be worth it if they meant reclaiming sovereignty from Europe, whose bureaucrats and judges interfere with everything from bankers’ bonuses to working-time limits. Yet the gain would be partly illusory. In a globalised world, power is necessarily pooled and traded: Britain gives up sovereignty in exchange for clout through its memberships of NATO, the IMF and countless other power-sharing, rule-setting institutions. Signing up to treaties on trade, nuclear power or the environment involves submitting to regulations set jointly with foreigners, in return for greater gains. Britain outside the EU would be on the sidelines: notionally independent from, but in fact still constrained by, rules it would have no role in formulating. It would be a purer but rather powerless sort of sovereignty.

One exception is immigration, the area over which many Eurosceptics most long for control. Half of Britain’s migrants come from the EU, and there is little the government can do to stop them. If Britain left the union, it could. But doing so would have a double cost. Gaining the right to stop immigration from the EU would almost certainly mean losing full access to the single market. And reducing the numbers of immigrants would hurt Britain’s businesses and public services, which rely on French bankers, Bulgarian builders and Italian doctors.

A global concern
The longer-term costs would go beyond economics. Brexit might well break up the United Kingdom itself. Scotland, more Europhile than England, is again agitating for a divorce; if Britain decides to leave Europe, then the Scots may at last have a point. Brexit could also dangerously unsettle Northern Ireland, where the peace process over two decades has depended on the fact that both Ireland and Britain are members of the EU. The Irish government is among the most vocal foreign supporters of the campaign for Britain to stay in.



In graphics: A guide to “Brexit” from the European Union
Ireland is not the only country that would suffer. European leaders know Brexit would weaken a club already in deep trouble over such issues as migration and the euro crisis. And Europe would be poorer without Britain’s voice: more dominated by Germany; and, surely, less liberal, more protectionist and more inward-looking. Europe’s links to America would become more tenuous. Above all, the loss of its biggest military power and most significant foreign-policy actor would seriously weaken the EU in the world.

The EU has become an increasingly important part of the West’s foreign and security policy, whether it concerns a nuclear deal with Iran, the threat of Islamist terrorism or the imposition of sanctions against Russia. Without Britain, it would be harder for the EU to pull its global weight—a big loss to the West in a troubled neighbourhood, from Russia through Syria to north Africa. It is little wonder that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is keen on Brexit—and that America’s Barack Obama is not. It would be shortsighted for Eurosceptics to be indifferent to this. A weakened Europe would be unambiguously bad for Britain, whose geography, unlike its politics, is fixed.

A lot thus rests on the tight race now under way. For those who believe, as this newspaper does, in free trade and freedom of movement, the benefits to Britain of its membership of the EU have never been in much doubt. What more sceptical sorts must now recognise is that Brexit would also weaken Europe and the West. The stakes in Mr Cameron’s great gamble are high; should he fail, the losses would be widely felt.
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Re: Brexit

Post by admin » Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:16 pm

Can I vote "who cares"?

If I had to take a position, from a personal stand-point, with a dead uncle still buried in the Netherlands, after all that blood that was spilled over centuries of war in Europe, it seems pretty short sighted to withdraw from the EU because a few people are ticked about this petty regulation, or that petty regulation, or they don't like immigrants, or whatever the gripe of the month is about the EU. Fix it. Yea, there is a lot of things the EU that needs fixing; but, fix it. Too many people died to get Europe to this point, and a lot of them were not even European.

Don't think it is going to mean that much one way or the other. Likely just crush the Euro / Pound, but that will likely be a short-term issue.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dosedmonkey » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:49 am

Its not that simple Admin. There are laws passed on nearly weekly basis by an EU parliament that no one in the UK actually knows about. And that the UK parliament can't reject the ruling of.

Certain names have been thrown of other powerful leaders who had their own plans on how they would unite Europe, and in fact blood was spilt keeping peace, by removing the uniting force. In this case there is some truth, slowly law and agreements have changed, so the EU as it started 20 years ago is so completely different to what it is becoming. I'm all for free trade.

The other part is the size of the EU is ever expanding, pulling in people of much differing cultures and attitudes. As well as there being a lack of monitoring who is moving between the borderless lines. You can freely move, and your criminal record does not go with you. Recently a Romanian murderer, served his time and traveled to the UK where he murdered again. the police were totally unaware of him in the country and thus community, nor would flag him if stopped immediately after said crime. Now copy that thousands of times to the hundreds of Romanian copper theifs police are struggling to get enough evidence on to prosecute under UK laws and fill UK paid, no EU paid, prisons.

I means this is just a scratch on the surface of all the issues.
I think USA and mexico should remove the boarder and see how that goes.

As for how media coverage and politicians have been on the debate, its been biased and full of rubbish, from people who can't even remember how things were not so long ago. Telling people if the UK left the EU British people would need to go to embassies to get visas to visit France. I mean get real, that's not going to happen. But that is what the politicians want to tell Fred who works at the Steel works and goes on holiday once every couple of years to the continent. Having control of our own laws, which is what has made us great, will be an inconvenience to Fred.

There would be temporary economic effects of leaving yes. But is this a short term question, no.

For me, I wish the EU hadn't expanded so fast, and some unknown ministers in the EU parliament hadn't taken power away from individual nations so fast.

Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Although these countries are not members of the EU, their nationals can work in the EU on the same footing as EU nationals, since they belong to the European Economic Area. And that sounds great to me.

What doesn't sound great, is all the Expats including my father living in the EU, who it will massively complicate, just because the politicians of the EU have gotten ahead of themselves, maybe they think they know better then the governments we've elected, I don't know.

Anyway, that is my quick dribble on the whole thing. Not many facts there, but trying to find truthful statistics on the whole thing seems to be impossible. So much miss information out there. But what do you expect when the whole of the EU wants the UK to stay, as they benefit from the UK. Time to decide does the UK benefit from the EU, or is it just convenient.

Ok this is quite amusing article about EU laws.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ho ... ly-7420612

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Re: Brexit

Post by admin » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:18 pm

I am totally with you on the expansion. I was living in the Netherlands when they just flipped the switch over night to add a pile of countries that were barely qualified as developing countries as they had just shifted gears back to capitalism from Russian communism. It was a crazy move, that should have been done in a much slower drip, drip, test and add another one sort of way, rather than just throwing them all in the mix.

I am also with you on the lack of democracy in the EU. That is also crazy. The EU needs direct elections, that are the same across the whole EU.

The crazy tax system is obviously a mess. Greece collects almost nothing, and the northern countries are paying through the nose. They need to unify their tax base before unifying anything else.

I am sure we could go on for days listing everything that is broken. Still don't think it is worth throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Had they spun this more however as a "suspension" of membership, it might have been a more valuable shot across the bow to the EU to get their shit together, without going the full way to leaving.
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Re: Brexit

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Jun 10, 2016 3:38 pm

One of them, a Brit gent I presume in the high 60's as myself said to me, when I was growing up in the 60's in GB, I could notice perhaps a few Jamaican, then in the 70's bunch of Arabs came in, or was it the 80's? Now all kind of EU member nationality comes in freely to Britain cause English is much easier to learn than the German or French, besides, in the UK the pay is way more attractive than the rest of EU and so is public services and so on. The Polish people prefer GB above Germany and France...

Then the Scottish gent said, if Brexit occurs, we are going for the separation of Scotland from the British
then we can start aging our whiskeys not only in Oak casket but Chesnut and other woods as was before Britain implemented that all Scotch whiskey must be aged in Oak casket..And we consider that all Scottish people are European and not British.
Didn't understand his polemic but interesting despite....We all will know how the referendum went in a couple of weeks.
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Re: Brexit

Post by john » Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:00 pm

Key Brexit advocates appear to have an ulterior motive which is a hard-right political agenda aimed at cutting workers rights and public services. Boris Johnson, their public persona, is a political hack whose main objective is in replacing David Cameron as PM. The "leave campaign" is using scare tactics (e.g., the immigration issue) to gain support for their position as they have no factual information on their side...they ignore the reality that huge job losses and market mayhem would inevitably follow a Brexit. The overwhelming majority of UK business leaders and economists think it would be a disaster for the UK to leave the EU. The "leave campaign" contention that the UK would be able to continue its current trade policies with the EU single market, should it exit the EU, is just not believable .

I am no apologist for the EU and concur that many of its institutions are decided anti-democratic. However, the UK is much better positioned to influence positive changes to the EU charter from inside, rather than outside the EU. Admin's assessment is correct when he opines, "Still don't think it is worth throwing out the baby with the bath water".
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Re: Brexit

Post by Andres » Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:51 pm

The real problem with the EU is that, as usual, it is the wrong solution for a problem the EU-proponents created in the first place.
(Typical government SOP.)

The problem of trade barriers, financial barriers and immigration barriers, all created by governments, is NOT more government, with an even more dictatorial, paternalistic, bureaucratic, regulatory attitude.
The solution is to demolish the entire EU bureaucracy and get rid of all national laws controlling trade, finance and immigration.
It's the same old game, similar to TTP: pretend to solve a problem but covertly make the problem worse by implementing more control and theft.
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Re: Brexit

Post by john » Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:46 pm

An inconvenient truth for the "leave" campaign?

Top economists warn sterling could fall by a third if Britain leaves the EU
'Complacent markets are underplaying' the risks to shares and living costs
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ng-markets
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Re: Brexit

Post by FrankPintor » Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:59 pm

Dosedmonkey wrote:You can freely move, and your criminal record does not go with you. Recently a Romanian murderer, served his time and traveled to the UK where he murdered again. the police were totally unaware of him in the country and thus community, nor would flag him if stopped immediately after said crime. Now copy that thousands of times to the hundreds of Romanian copper theifs police are struggling to get enough evidence on to prosecute under UK laws and fill UK paid, no EU paid, prisons.
Dosed, you do realise that the UK is not part of the Schengen Agreement? There are passport controls between the Schengen Area and countries outside it (unless they're too lazy to check passports, in which case please don't blame the EU). So leaving the EU would change your scenario how, exactly?
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Re: Brexit

Post by FrankPintor » Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:01 pm

admin wrote:I am also with you on the lack of democracy in the EU. That is also crazy. The EU needs direct elections, that are the same across the whole EU.
Charles, there are direct elections. I have an MEP. What's your point?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dosedmonkey » Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:04 pm

How does passport control allow them to check a residents criminal history?

When my wife got visa for the UK they dod all sorts of checks. But a romanian can just stroll in and live in your community with none. Where is the equality and security.

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