Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

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fraggle092
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:22 am

FrankPintor wrote:Oh Gawd, is there any way to make this relevant to even this Millenium
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.- George Santayana
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:59 am

When the Cold War ended 25 years ago, the Soviet Union vanished into the ash heap of history. That left the West's "useful idiots" — Lenin's term for the ideologues and toadies who could always be relied on to justify or praise whatever Moscow did — in search of other socialist thugs to fawn over.

http://townhall.com/columnists/jeffjaco ... t-n2263571
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:02 am

oh, yes I am aware that this is probably incorrectly attributed to Lenin, as it's use predates Lenin in Russia politics.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by fraggle092 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:52 am

Excellent article. I would take exception to just one statement :
Venezuela since at least the 1970s had been Latin America's most affluent nation.
I worked in Venezuela several times in the '80s and early '90s pre-Chavez.
Even then, in Caracas, there were gun battles in the slums up in the surrounding hills every night. And compared to the relative tidiness of Chile, Venezuelan towns were dirty and run-down. Working on Lake Maracaibo, (an ecological disaster if ever there was one btw),we needed naval protection after one of our vessels was attacked and boarded by armed pirates.

So although plenty of petrodollars were rolling in at the time, Venezuela was still a poverty-stricken, corrupt and violent place, not affluent at all. Guess all that money went "elsewhere", same as now.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:34 am

yep, no crime here. Move it along:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... b2c5b9f2bf

The Venezuela military is making bigger profits off of food than drugs these days, with Maduro's blessing.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:44 am

yep, no crime here either.

A lot more details on the citgo mortgage to the Russians:
http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2 ... ryId=10717
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by seawolf180 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:18 am

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/ame ... =379928553
History kinda repeats itself? Kinda.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by AnciaVagar » Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:40 am

I was waiting for admin to post on that "news." Seems to support your earlier statement that Citgo is vastly over-collateralized. Daniel Urdaneta in the CC gave some welcome analysis of the news as covered by the WSJ:

"One little caveat: the people at PDVSA are no fools. Being short on cash as crude prices nosedived in 2014, and after playing out the implications of this scenario, the company sought to transfer as much value out of CITGO as possible. At the end of that year, they issued a $650mm bond due in 2022 backed by Citgo Petroleum’s assets (among these, refineries and accounts receivable) and transferred more than half of proceeds to PDVSA as a special dividend."

https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2017/ ... ver-citgo/

I can't interpret this as anything but solid evidence of PdV's intention of a coming selective default.

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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:16 am

This was a pretty well rounded eulogy for the socialist revolution in Latin America:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -influence

There is still a very large and strong political left in Latin America, and probably always will be as long as there is massive inequality. I think the difference has been in the last say 20 years or so, is the new generation of the left is becoming more center orientated on the political scales, to model their "utopia" less on broken Marxist rhetoric, and more on a Northern European market model. They want social services, health care, education, development, and so on; but, they also want their iphone.

More moderate socialism, which is really just development in developing countries, is within reach for most of Latin America, if they get the corruption under control. It is corruption in Latin America, that fuels the populace left movements, that in tern creates opportunities for more corruption. Get a handle on that, and development follows; while cutting down on the dissatisfaction and frustration among the population that drives them to support more crazy revolutionary type leftist politicians.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by tiagoabner » Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:48 am

admin wrote:It is corruption in Latin America, that fuels the populace left movements, that in tern creates opportunities for more corruption.
I could not agree more. However, the actual challenge is to get corruption under control. We had a law proposed in Brazil by popular demand (it can be done, as long as you get at least 1% of all voters to sign the petition) intended to combat corruption, simplify lawsuits and combat impunity. But since all laws need to be approved by the congress, it was not approved with its original text. Instead the congressman changed the law to actually favor corruption, as most of them are involved in corruption scandals.

I still have hope Brazilians will someday stop voting at the same old corrupt guys, but it seems this is still something distant, in the far future.

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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Thu Apr 27, 2017 10:49 am

the one the blows me away in Brazil is the tax laws. There was a great article around a couple years ago, can not find it now, about the crazy tax code. Some lawyer, that was pushing for reform, printed it out in these stacks you needed a ladder to climb. He was touring around Brazil giving lectures with the stack of tax law.

It said something like there is on average 130 tax regulations / laws added per day. Can not find it now. Perhaps someone knows where it is and will repost it.

When I was a kid, when I first moved to mexico, my dad use to keep a couple crisp new $100 bills in passport for "solving problems". Years later, when I moved Guatemala, a friend that had lived there for years told me to take $1000 and put it in a book on your shelf and forget about it. Again, for "solving problems".

Somehow, knock on wood, in all the years I have been traveling in Latin America, I have never paid a bribe. It was not for lack of trying on the part of corrupt officials, just most of the time i was too broke to afford to pay a bribe. I typically had more time than money, so I would wait out whomever it was that was trying to squeeze me for a bribe or find a way to work around it. I know that was probably just dumb luck, that no one ever really got me cornered sufficiently with leverage to force me to pay one.

That is however one shift I have seen in Latin America over the years vs. say the 80's in Mexico; bribes and corruption seem to have shifted from the street level up the social chain. I am sure it is direct relationship to how good or bad an economy is doing at any one time, but it is more like corruption has been professionalized and systematized in Latin America over the years.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by Andres » Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:17 pm

Rich and poor in Caracas are banging pots.
When they do that, you know it is near the end (of the regime).
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