Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

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AnciaVagar
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by AnciaVagar » Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:51 pm

admin wrote:...Which is a sort of blame the victim approach...
Or an insight that nothing will improve in Vz until and unless the citizens repudiate their many-generation-old attitudes. (not taking bets on when...)

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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by Andres » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:36 pm

admin wrote:why it has managed to hold up so long, as being really a sort of function of optimism among the masses, that is now breaking down in to riots. Essentially, he said the reason that so many Venezuelans have gone along with the government b.s., even many that do not support the government, is because things have gotten so bad and the alternative options are so few, that there has been a wide-spread sort of 'go with the flow' of the government b.s. programs and solutions for fear that to resist them would have even worse results and even more chaose.

Not sure I did that idea justice, but it was an interesting theory to explain why there has not been more wide-spread resistance, let alone outright attempt to overthrow the government.
If you look around, that is the common theme of almost any government.
Supposedly giving you (usually two) choices which do not differ.
Brainwashing you into thinking there is no other solution.
It keeps the (human) cattle calmer.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:21 am

Here is an interesting take. Bloomberg is putting together a "cafe con leche" index, to track the price of a cup of coffee in hopes of tracking inflation. Currently at around 1600%, or 1100 bolivar, or about $110 at the official rate, or about 0.35 cents at the black market rate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016 ... che-index/

On the one hand, having a cup of coffee at a cafe, seems to not really track much of anything because you would consider it a discretionary purchase in a country where a lot of people are struggling to feed themselves. On the other hand, there is something I believe valuable in tracking a want vs. a need, and a product that is most likely fully domestically sourced (they got coffee and they got some source of milk produced in Venezuela).
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by frozen-north » Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:06 pm

admin wrote:
Here is an interesting take. Bloomberg is putting together a "cafe con leche" index,
Having seen other articles from Bloomberg and other 'well respected' organizations I would think that they will likely compare a cup of actual coffee in Venezuela with a cup of Nescafe in Chile.

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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by FrankPintor » Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:09 pm

frozen-north wrote:
admin wrote:
Here is an interesting take. Bloomberg is putting together a "cafe con leche" index,
Having seen other articles from Bloomberg and other 'well respected' organizations I would think that they will likely compare a cup of actual coffee in Venezuela with a cup of Nescafe in Chile.
Not "cafe con leche", it's "marrón" :wink:

Actually I don't think there are major milk producers in Venezuela, from what I've seen it's always powdered milk, and imported. I think even the coffee is partly imported from Colombia these days, production isn't sufficient to supply the market. And "marrón" is sometimes unavailable, so without milk it becomes "guayoyo". So much for building an index around something that isn't regularly available.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:37 pm

In that case coffee drinkers in venezuela should be able to index the increassingly shitty coffe relative to the price until it become just another cup of 'noescafe' like sold in chile.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:55 pm

So maduro just mortaged off the rest of the u.s. citgo refinery and pipeline assets to guess who?

The russians

Looks like for about 1.8 billion dollars in loans.

Which my back of the napkin calcs make that company leveraged out for at least 3 times it's wildess market value after the recent bond offering, pending law suits, and asset stripping of billions of dollars.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?Article ... ryId=10717
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by AnciaVagar » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:22 pm

Another shoe drops. The Rosneft deal casts a new light on the PdV bond swap. Add to your 3x valuation the probable judgements coming in the ConocoPhillips/Crystallex/ChevronTexaco lawsuits. And a commenter on another site indicates that the deal appears to have violated US securities laws...

I was eager to see what admin would post on this news, but I was slow to repost the article this morning because there's about a year's worth of bad news from Venezuela each week, and I'm becoming numb.

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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:17 am

no I think I mentioned that pending law suit a long time ago, but perhaps not.

Yea, there is pending action by all the U.S. companies that they expropriated to block both the bond swap and most likely this deal with the Russians on the grounds it was intended to stop the companies from collecting against the U.S. assets through stripping the worth of citgo.

One of the reasons I find it interesting that anyone took the bond swap, against an asset that could be seized by the courts in the event of full default by Venezuela.

Venezuela now is acting just like a person that is in over their head in debt. Before filing for bankruptcy, they are trying to borrow as much as they can against remaining assets.
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:22 pm

Why Does Venezuela Think Russia Is Its Friend?

Venezuela is in crisis. Due to the falling oil price, maintaining the complex triple exchange rate system is draining its FX reserves, and President Maduro’s public expenditure plans are fast becoming unaffordable.

In October, the Venezuelan government set a budget which increased public spending by 35%, nearly all of it on social programs. From the independent website Venezuelan Analysis:

The plan, totaling 741.7 billion bolivars (about $117.7 billion at the official exchange rate of 6.3), represents a 35 percent overall increase from the 2014 budget. Proportionally, 34 percent more funds will be invested in social programs in 2015 than this year.

The programs which will see the most growth will be the Amor Mayor mission, which provides elderly pensions, the Barrio Adentro mission, which provides free healthcare and clinics in poor areas, and the Sucre Mission, which funnels money into the country’s Bolivarian community colleges.

It is difficult to see how such a large increase in spending on social programs could be affordable at present. Venezuela’s government is completely dependent on revenues from oil exports: it needs the oil price to be above $100 per barrel to support spending plans. The budget deficit is already at 16.9% and revenues are falling fast due to sharply worsening terms of trade and general economic weakness. The Venezuelan government claimed that its plans had priced in the oil price fall:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescopp ... 5e644651f3
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:26 pm

Should China Let Venezuela Collapse?

Shi ji ping has loaned a big chunk of money to Vz already..But ....

Over the last sixteen years, China has provided over $125 billion to Venezuela ($57 billion since 2007) in the form of direct aid or very favorable loans. Venezuela repays many of these debts by shipping cheap crude oil to China (some estimate the return rate to be around $7 billion a year). In exchange, Venezuela grants Chinese companies priority in government projects sponsored by Chinese loans. In 2008, the China Development Bank launched a $6 billion fund with Caracas to support such projects. One such project was the 470-kilometer Tinaco-Anaco railway, which China financed and supervised with leadership from the China Railway Group Limited. But like many public projects in Venezuela, it was derailed by poor management and corruption. The project is already four years overdue, and there are no signs that it will ever pick up again.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/sho ... apse-16489
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Re: Venezuela Wake, countdown to implosion

Post by admin » Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:23 am

Does not appear there is anything merry about this Christmas in Venezuela.

This is a great video showing people's reaction to the food packages in Venezuela:
https://www.facebook.com/perolike/video ... 404405748/
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