The State of the States

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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:20 pm

Instead of creating a topic page, just borrowing the State of state page.
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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:38 pm

Another US destroyer collides.!

SINGAPORE, Aug. 20, 9:10 p.m. HST - The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) has arrived at Changi Naval Base following a collision with the merchant vessel Alnic MC while underway east of the Strait of Malacca and Singapore on Aug. 21 (local date).

The collision was reported at 6:24 a.m. Japan Standard Time. Significant damage to the hull resulted in flooding to nearby compartments, including crew berthing, machinery, and communications rooms. Damage control efforts by the crew halted further flooding.

There are currently 10 Sailors missing and five injured. Four of the injured were medically evacuated by a Singapore Armed Forces helicopter to a hospital in Singapore for non-life threatening injuries. The fifth injured Sailor does not require further medical attention.

http://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/130185
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Re: The State of the States

Post by admin » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:11 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:Another US destroyer collides.!

SINGAPORE, Aug. 20, 9:10 p.m. HST - The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) has arrived at Changi Naval Base following a collision with the merchant vessel Alnic MC while underway east of the Strait of Malacca and Singapore on Aug. 21 (local date).

The collision was reported at 6:24 a.m. Japan Standard Time. Significant damage to the hull resulted in flooding to nearby compartments, including crew berthing, machinery, and communications rooms. Damage control efforts by the crew halted further flooding.

There are currently 10 Sailors missing and five injured. Four of the injured were medically evacuated by a Singapore Armed Forces helicopter to a hospital in Singapore for non-life threatening injuries. The fifth injured Sailor does not require further medical attention.

http://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/130185
Yea, we already started making fun of that somewhere else; although, the number of sailors lost is not funny. In fact, I think we are on course for the largest number of sailors lost in a long time.

Meanwhile, in to the breach once more: Trump decides to try and win the unwinnable war. Not sure what makes him or any of his generals think they can win in Afghanistan, when some of the greatest generals and armies in history got their rears handed to them in Afganistan over the centuries. When the first troops hit the ground in afganistan, 17 years ago, there was this long stream of retired generals saying it was a bad idea. Not sure where they all are now.

It is not like the Taliban are going to say, 'screw this we are going home'. They already are home. I think sun tzu called it "dispersive ground", but for diffrent reasons:
So called because the soldiers, being near to their homes and anxious to see their wives and children, are likely to seize the opportunity afforded by a battle and scatter in every direction. "In their advance," observes Tu Mu, "they will lack the valor of desperation, and when they retreat, they will find harbors of refuge."
Which means, in Afghanistan, after a hot meal, and a good nights sleep, they can come back the next day, or when the poppies are all harvested.
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Re: The State of the States

Post by at46 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:53 am

The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.

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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:05 pm

Israeli cyber security firms who works with Jewish state suspects " spoofing " as present GPS location manipulation by possible PRC and or NK hackers responsible for US ships not able to avoid collision with another ships at high sea. It seems those hackers found a way to infiltrate to receiving US GPS signals and tweaking it by using the method as "spoofing" so the ships computer confusing itself of real present location ?

___Itar Glick, head of the Israel-based international cybersecurity firm Votiro, said the spate of incidents suggested that U.S. Navy ships’ GPS systems could have been tampered with by hackers, causing them to miscalculate their positions.
“I think that hackers could try to do this, and if they are state-sponsored they might have the right resources to facilitate this kind of attack,” he said.___

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/ ... Z2oKtjkVPY

Glick, who says he used to work on cybersecurity for Israeli intelligence, said that China and North Korea would be the most likely culprits.

Fourth US Navy collision this year raises suspicion of cyber-attacks.

There are only a few reasonable explanations for the increase in US Navy-involved collisions that appear to be isolated to this one particular region of the map. The crashes could be due to a lack of proper training, an act of war, terrorism, or coincidence.

The first US Navy collision this year occurred in January, when the USS Antietam ran aground near Yosuka, Japan.

The USS Champlain was the next ship to crash, colliding with a South Korean fishing vessel in May. According to reports Navy personnel spotted the fishing craft and tried to contact it, but it lacked a radio and GPS. It’s pretty strange to think that a South Korean fishing boat wouldn’t have GPS — almost beyond belief.

When the USS Fitzgerald — operating near Yokuska — collided with a container ship from Philippines on June 17th seven US sailors died. They weren’t found until the following day when damage control personnel gained access to flooded compartments. The commanding officer, executive officer, and command masterchief were relieved of command on August 17th, after 7th Fleet Admiral Joseph P. Aucoin determined that “the bridge team lost situational awareness.”

Could a military vessel be hacked? In essence, what if GPS spoofing or administrative lockout caused personnel to be unaware of any imminent danger or unable to respond?
https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/08/ ... w_yRVzyyPH
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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:19 pm

at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
Ukraiina president: Peroshenko is so firmly believing that the current NK prodigious missile engine development speed is due
to hundred of engines Ukraina produced then sent to then USSR. Those rockets been sold to NK from current RUssia to faciliate tech transfer to NK. If believing this story, it makes complete sense that those rockets produced or tweaked by NK, reaching the entirety of NA continent.
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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:25 pm

admin wrote:
HybridAmbassador wrote:Another US destroyer collides.!

SINGAPORE, Aug. 20, 9:10 p.m. HST - The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) has arrived at Changi Naval Base following a collision with the merchant vessel Alnic MC while underway east of the Strait of Malacca and Singapore on Aug. 21 (local date).

The collision was reported at 6:24 a.m. Japan Standard Time. Significant damage to the hull resulted in flooding to nearby compartments, including crew berthing, machinery, and communications rooms. Damage control efforts by the crew halted further flooding.

There are currently 10 Sailors missing and five injured. Four of the injured were medically evacuated by a Singapore Armed Forces helicopter to a hospital in Singapore for non-life threatening injuries. The fifth injured Sailor does not require further medical attention.

http://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/130185
Yea, we already started making fun of that somewhere else; although, the number of sailors lost is not funny. In fact, I think we are on course for the largest number of sailors lost in a long time.

Meanwhile, in to the breach once more: Trump decides to try and win the unwinnable war. Not sure what makes him or any of his generals think they can win in Afghanistan, when some of the greatest generals and armies in history got their rears handed to them in Afganistan over the centuries. When the first troops hit the ground in afganistan, 17 years ago, there was this long stream of retired generals saying it was a bad idea. Not sure where they all are now.

It is not like the Taliban are going to say, 'screw this we are going home'. They already are home. I think sun tzu called it "dispersive ground", but for diffrent reasons:
So called because the soldiers, being near to their homes and anxious to see their wives and children, are likely to seize the opportunity afforded by a battle and scatter in every direction. "In their advance," observes Tu Mu, "they will lack the valor of desperation, and when they retreat, they will find harbors of refuge."
Which means, in Afghanistan, after a hot meal, and a good nights sleep, they can come back the next day, or when the poppies are all harvested.
Ha,ha.. But Trmpfster is changing his pledge of yesterday. He is now against at once US military withdrawal from Afghanistan. But then increasing the number of US personnel in the area by 6k more soldiers into the hot contested battlefield dominated by Taliban, why is he changing his stand now?
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Re: The State of the States

Post by at46 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:51 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:Those rockets been sold to NK from current RUssia to faciliate tech transfer to NK.
That's a pretty bold statement. Is it the two Kuril islands that Putin is not giving Japan that cloud your judgement? What sense does it make for Russia to arm Chinese puppet Kim with nukes? Ukrainians, on the other hand, would be more than happy to sell whatever Soviet technology they have left before it completely rusts away. And if they can also point fingers and somehow blame Russia for that, so much the better.

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Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:07 pm

at46 wrote:
HybridAmbassador wrote:Those rockets been sold to NK from current RUssia to faciliate tech transfer to NK.
That's a pretty bold statement. Is it the two Kuril islands that Putin is not giving Japan that cloud your judgement? What sense does it make for Russia to arm Chinese puppet Kim with nukes? Ukrainians, on the other hand, would be more than happy to sell whatever Soviet technology they have left before it completely rusts away. And if they can also point fingers and somehow blame Russia for that, so much the better.
Kuril island back to Japan? Why in hell you bringing these into this? Iam starting to lose respect for you, at46. Always reading your posting with respect but this time your post and comment is clouding my impression about you.

Sell those Ukraina made rockets from Russia's obsolete arsenal makes sense. Putin wants to irritate the US, so nothing wrong to give the North Koreans with those rusting yesteryear technology. There was revelation photos of NK rocket test and the Ukraiina made ones, extremely resembling the Russia's rocket.

(Kiev Says Engine Type 'Used in NKorea Missiles' Made for Russia..).

Ukraine's space agency said Tuesday that an engine type reportedly used in North Korean missiles was made at a Ukrainian factory, but solely for use in space rockets supplied to Russia.

The development came after an expert report published Monday said Pyongyang's recent rapid progress in developing a long-range missile appeared to have come after it refurbished rocket engines procured from a plant in the former Soviet Union.

These could have been bought from corrupt workers at arsenals in Russia or Ukraine and smuggled to North Korea by criminal networks at some point between the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and Ukraine's current crisis, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

"Such engines were made up to 2001 by Ukraine's Yuzhmash (plant),", Ukraine's acting space agency chief Yuriy Radchenko told journalists. He said the RD-250 engines were used in Cyclone-2 and Cyclone-3 space rockets supplied to Russia.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017 ... ussia.html

The speed at which North Korea has ramped up its missile and nuclear defense programs within the last two years is reportedly due to purchases Kim Jong Un’s regime has made on a weapons black market linked to Ukraine and Russia, as the United States and the globe fret over a potential military conflict.

A new report released Monday by the International Institute for Strategic Studies explains the North has made “astounding strides” in missile development, and it could not have done so without a high-performance liquid-propellant engine, or LPE, provided by a “foreign source.”

“Claims that the LPE is a North Korean product would be more believable if the country’s experts had in the recent past developed and tested a series of smaller, less powerful engines, but there are no reports of such activities,” the report, penned by missile expert Michael Elleman, reads.

http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-nor ... les-650504

North Korea’s success in testing an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears able to reach the United States was made possible by black-market purchases of powerful rocket engines probably from a Ukrainian factory with historical ties to Russia’s missile program, according to an expert analysis being published Monday and classified assessments by American intelligence agencies.

The studies may solve the mystery of how North Korea began succeeding so suddenly after a string of fiery missile failures, some of which may have been caused by American sabotage of its supply chains and cyberattacks on its launches. After those failures, the North changed designs and suppliers in the past two years, according to a new study by Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Such a degree of aid to North Korea from afar would be notable because President Trump has singled out only China as the North’s main source of economic and technological support. He has never blamed Ukraine or Russia, though his secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson, made an oblique reference to both China and Russia as the nation’s “principal economic enablers” after the North’s most recent ICBM launch last month.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/worl ... ml?mcubz=1
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Re: The State of the States

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:20 pm

at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
I think the turn event may already be on. It will be the budget battle that is beginning as there is not enough money to even get through the end of September. It may force Trump to beg for an enemy Demo alliance to raise the debt cieling while giving his enemy Repu grounds to dissert him over it. A drawn out gov. shutdown scenario may be in the cards, then we are in fall territory where market crashes tend to happen.

USDI now approaching 52-week lows. If it breaks 90, watch out! Got gold?

This factor and the surprising strength in copper and we've also seen CLP/USD slip from the 660s to 640 despite all the also negative news for Chile.
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Re: The State of the States

Post by admin » Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:05 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
I think the turn event may already be on. It will be the budget battle that is beginning as there is not enough money to even get through the end of September. It may force Trump to beg for an enemy Demo alliance to raise the debt cieling while giving his enemy Repu grounds to dissert him over it. A drawn out gov. shutdown scenario may be in the cards, then we are in fall territory where market crashes tend to happen.

USDI now approaching 52-week lows. If it breaks 90, watch out! Got gold?

This factor and the surprising strength in copper and we've also seen CLP/USD slip from the 660s to 640 despite all the also negative news for Chile.
There was a great article I read recently and can not find it about the real Price to Earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market. They often say that the historical norm for the P/E ratio of stocks is something like around 15. Right now most of the index funds out there, are reporting something like 20-39 or something. They are high, by all standards.

But, that is not the real P/E ratio.

Essentially, over 1/3 of the russel 2000, has negative earnings. Which, when calculating the P/E ratio for index funds, is rounded to zero, because a negative earnings in P/E makes no sense. The real P/E ratio of the russel 5000, however can be calculated by adding up the price of all the stocks in the index, and then adding up the earnings of all those stocks. The real P/E was some absurd 700 or 139 (can't recall the exact number right now), but it was shocking.

I don't buy a stock or index over say 20 P/E, unless they got some dam good story to go with it.

But, up, up and away goes the stock market right. We all know it is over priced, regardless of whatever measure you use. Just keep an eye on the VIX (volatility index), and get ready to hit the panic button in the event things get to crazy.

Well, there was another great interview I seen that argued for why the VIX is broken now. Due to the invention of leverage, anti-vix type etf instruments, there is a massive amount of money out there betting on the lack of volatility. It is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, suppressing the vix indicators, using leverage ETFs.

My favorite indicators of just how over priced market right now is how much cash Warren buffet is sitting on; because, warren buffet's cash pile is my confirmation that he is reading our (me and buffet's) other favorite indicator the way I am: Market cap to GDP ratio.

It is really scary right now. Check out these charts, and look at the 2000 .com bust.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... -indicator

That is all in the midst of central bank tightening going on. Get ready for the hang-over. Historically, sooner or later, they pop whatever bubble the markets have inflated with their easy cash. Historically, there is no such thing as a soft-landing, and this time will be super dupper, hard, simply due to the shear amount of cash pumped in to the system.

As for the dollar, screw that. The last time I had so few dollar assets, I was broke in college (just happened to be around the .com bust by the way). Even if you don't buy all the gold bug stuff, put your money anywhere but the dollar right now.

I won't touch any of the developed markets right now with a 3000 km long pole. Cash in a crash, is king.

My best investment idea right now, is just positioning assets to get ready for the big buy. What i am buying. no idea yet. I will know it when I see it.

As I have said before, opportunity without liquidity, is not an opportunity. I am digging change out of my sofa to get liquid for the big show.
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Re: The State of the States

Post by mem » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:44 pm

Russia and China are the defacto world powers minus the US. NK is the plausibly deniable attack dog of the Russian/Chinese axis. They are already playing ball as if the US no longer exists. It's like unhappy wife with a husband. She goes along to get along until suddenly BOOM! Real kicks in. Husband is aghast and penniless. Buh buh honey!?!? The husband is shock and awed and the wife makes the move. Call me crazy, call me prescient. You gotta hand it to Putin, so well played...as if he is crying over the "friend" of the US not keeping up to snuff. He bends over backwards to play the remorseful friend card on the US, while he full well knows he is playing to cover his butt in the UN down the road and doing it perfectly. I don't have much respect for Poroshenko. Methinks he is just a US puppet and overrated.

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