at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.
The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.
He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.
His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.
Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
I think the turn event may already be on. It will be the budget battle that is beginning as there is not enough money to even get through the end of September. It may force Trump to beg for an enemy Demo alliance to raise the debt cieling while giving his enemy Repu grounds to dissert him over it. A drawn out gov. shutdown scenario may be in the cards, then we are in fall territory where market crashes tend to happen.
USDI now approaching 52-week lows. If it breaks 90, watch out! Got gold?
This factor and the surprising strength in copper and we've also seen CLP/USD slip from the 660s to 640 despite all the also negative news for Chile.
There was a great article I read recently and can not find it about the real Price to Earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market. They often say that the historical norm for the P/E ratio of stocks is something like around 15. Right now most of the index funds out there, are reporting something like 20-39 or something. They are high, by all standards.
But, that is not the real P/E ratio.
Essentially, over 1/3 of the russel 2000, has negative earnings. Which, when calculating the P/E ratio for index funds, is rounded to zero, because a negative earnings in P/E makes no sense. The real P/E ratio of the russel 5000, however can be calculated by adding up the price of all the stocks in the index, and then adding up the earnings of all those stocks. The real P/E was some absurd 700 or 139 (can't recall the exact number right now), but it was shocking.
I don't buy a stock or index over say 20 P/E, unless they got some dam good story to go with it.
But, up, up and away goes the stock market right. We all know it is over priced, regardless of whatever measure you use. Just keep an eye on the VIX (volatility index), and get ready to hit the panic button in the event things get to crazy.
Well, there was another great interview I seen that argued for why the VIX is broken now. Due to the invention of leverage, anti-vix type etf instruments, there is a massive amount of money out there betting on the lack of volatility. It is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, suppressing the vix indicators, using leverage ETFs.
My favorite indicators of just how over priced market right now is how much cash Warren buffet is sitting on; because, warren buffet's cash pile is my confirmation that he is reading our (me and buffet's) other favorite indicator the way I am: Market cap to GDP ratio.
It is really scary right now. Check out these charts, and look at the 2000 .com bust.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... -indicator
That is all in the midst of central bank tightening going on. Get ready for the hang-over. Historically, sooner or later, they pop whatever bubble the markets have inflated with their easy cash. Historically, there is no such thing as a soft-landing, and this time will be super dupper, hard, simply due to the shear amount of cash pumped in to the system.
As for the dollar, screw that. The last time I had so few dollar assets, I was broke in college (just happened to be around the .com bust by the way). Even if you don't buy all the gold bug stuff, put your money anywhere but the dollar right now.
I won't touch any of the developed markets right now with a 3000 km long pole. Cash in a crash, is king.
My best investment idea right now, is just positioning assets to get ready for the big buy. What i am buying. no idea yet. I will know it when I see it.
As I have said before, opportunity without liquidity, is not an opportunity. I am digging change out of my sofa to get liquid for the big show.