The State of the States

Anything at all (keep it clean) goes here that does not fit in to any of the other forums.

Moderator: eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 7944
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: The State of the States

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:20 pm

at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
I think the turn event may already be on. It will be the budget battle that is beginning as there is not enough money to even get through the end of September. It may force Trump to beg for an enemy Demo alliance to raise the debt cieling while giving his enemy Repu grounds to dissert him over it. A drawn out gov. shutdown scenario may be in the cards, then we are in fall territory where market crashes tend to happen.

USDI now approaching 52-week lows. If it breaks 90, watch out! Got gold?

This factor and the surprising strength in copper and we've also seen CLP/USD slip from the 660s to 640 despite all the also negative news for Chile.
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19659
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The State of the States

Post by admin » Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:05 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
at46 wrote:The States are running out of time: too much money printed by the Western central banks.

The big turn will probably take place around Christmas time. Till then, Trump has to hold on even if he has to continue exacerbating the military psychosis and throwing out ballast bags such as his advisers who are especially badly hated by the elite.

He would have no chance had he been alone against the Chinese and neocon globalists. But he’s backed by the nationalists, not only in the USA, but now also in Israel.

His counter-play with the Ukrainian-North Korean rocket engine contract following the revelations of Ukrainian intervention in the US elections on the side of Hillary has been pretty effective. Over the fall the two sides will probably reach some kind of secret compromise removing mutual accusations.

Then, if Trump survives the last desperate attempt at his impeachment which will take place in December, the logic of the financial situation going forward will begin to prevail over political intrigues.
I think the turn event may already be on. It will be the budget battle that is beginning as there is not enough money to even get through the end of September. It may force Trump to beg for an enemy Demo alliance to raise the debt cieling while giving his enemy Repu grounds to dissert him over it. A drawn out gov. shutdown scenario may be in the cards, then we are in fall territory where market crashes tend to happen.

USDI now approaching 52-week lows. If it breaks 90, watch out! Got gold?

This factor and the surprising strength in copper and we've also seen CLP/USD slip from the 660s to 640 despite all the also negative news for Chile.
There was a great article I read recently and can not find it about the real Price to Earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market. They often say that the historical norm for the P/E ratio of stocks is something like around 15. Right now most of the index funds out there, are reporting something like 20-39 or something. They are high, by all standards.

But, that is not the real P/E ratio.

Essentially, over 1/3 of the russel 2000, has negative earnings. Which, when calculating the P/E ratio for index funds, is rounded to zero, because a negative earnings in P/E makes no sense. The real P/E ratio of the russel 5000, however can be calculated by adding up the price of all the stocks in the index, and then adding up the earnings of all those stocks. The real P/E was some absurd 700 or 139 (can't recall the exact number right now), but it was shocking.

I don't buy a stock or index over say 20 P/E, unless they got some dam good story to go with it.

But, up, up and away goes the stock market right. We all know it is over priced, regardless of whatever measure you use. Just keep an eye on the VIX (volatility index), and get ready to hit the panic button in the event things get to crazy.

Well, there was another great interview I seen that argued for why the VIX is broken now. Due to the invention of leverage, anti-vix type etf instruments, there is a massive amount of money out there betting on the lack of volatility. It is a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, suppressing the vix indicators, using leverage ETFs.

My favorite indicators of just how over priced market right now is how much cash Warren buffet is sitting on; because, warren buffet's cash pile is my confirmation that he is reading our (me and buffet's) other favorite indicator the way I am: Market cap to GDP ratio.

It is really scary right now. Check out these charts, and look at the 2000 .com bust.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... -indicator

That is all in the midst of central bank tightening going on. Get ready for the hang-over. Historically, sooner or later, they pop whatever bubble the markets have inflated with their easy cash. Historically, there is no such thing as a soft-landing, and this time will be super dupper, hard, simply due to the shear amount of cash pumped in to the system.

As for the dollar, screw that. The last time I had so few dollar assets, I was broke in college (just happened to be around the .com bust by the way). Even if you don't buy all the gold bug stuff, put your money anywhere but the dollar right now.

I won't touch any of the developed markets right now with a 3000 km long pole. Cash in a crash, is king.

My best investment idea right now, is just positioning assets to get ready for the big buy. What i am buying. no idea yet. I will know it when I see it.

As I have said before, opportunity without liquidity, is not an opportunity. I am digging change out of my sofa to get liquid for the big show.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The State of the States

Post by mem » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:44 pm

Russia and China are the defacto world powers minus the US. NK is the plausibly deniable attack dog of the Russian/Chinese axis. They are already playing ball as if the US no longer exists. It's like unhappy wife with a husband. She goes along to get along until suddenly BOOM! Real kicks in. Husband is aghast and penniless. Buh buh honey!?!? The husband is shock and awed and the wife makes the move. Call me crazy, call me prescient. You gotta hand it to Putin, so well played...as if he is crying over the "friend" of the US not keeping up to snuff. He bends over backwards to play the remorseful friend card on the US, while he full well knows he is playing to cover his butt in the UN down the road and doing it perfectly. I don't have much respect for Poroshenko. Methinks he is just a US puppet and overrated.

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by at46 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:32 pm

mem wrote:Russia and China are the defacto world powers minus the US. NK is the plausibly deniable attack dog of the Russian/Chinese axis.
It's actually Berlin/Russia/China axis. Tokio is still haggling over price of axis membership, let's see what happens after Christmas. https://www.rt.com/news/399775-germany- ... eze-korea/

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 7944
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: The State of the States

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:53 am

Definitely popcorn and adult beverage times if one is fortunate to be watching the northern hemisphere from a somewhat safe distance. Seems we all might have a different perspective but know the end game is nearer than near and now measured in months rather than years.
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

at46
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by at46 » Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:44 pm

eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:Definitely popcorn and adult beverage times if one is fortunate to be watching the northern hemisphere from a somewhat safe distance. Seems we all might have a different perspective but know the end game is nearer than near and now measured in months rather than years.
Interesting quote from the Chinese re. Japan. It's what the Russians have been saying for years:
Japan isn't behaving as it should as the world's third largest economy. It has been 72 years since the end of World War II, and Japan is still far behind its goal of becoming a politically important power. Japanese politicians are smart in using tactics. But they are usually strategically twisted and short-sighted, which is unfortunate for Asia.

Japan tightly binds itself to the US, and rejects China's peaceful rise to power. Such a choice is based on its simplistic understanding of power relations and inevitably results in a dilemma: It disorients itself when China-US relations improve, but fears the deterioration of China-US ties. The rise and fall of China-US ties creates a continuous nightmare for Japan. It could have lived more easily, as long as it erases its dark intentions on China.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063207.shtml

HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3804
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sat Aug 26, 2017 4:54 pm

mem wrote:Russia and China are the defacto world powers minus the US. NK is the plausibly deniable attack dog of the Russian/Chinese axis. They are already playing ball as if the US no longer exists. It's like unhappy wife with a husband. She goes along to get along until suddenly BOOM! Real kicks in. Husband is aghast and penniless. Buh buh honey!?!? The husband is shock and awed and the wife makes the move. Call me crazy, call me prescient. You gotta hand it to Putin, so well played...as if he is crying over the "friend" of the US not keeping up to snuff. He bends over backwards to play the remorseful friend card on the US, while he full well knows he is playing to cover his butt in the UN down the road and doing it perfectly. I don't have much respect for Poroshenko. Methinks he is just a US puppet and overrated.
Putin is very terrified of NATO's military parade just celebrated in Peroshenko's front yard. Seen ex-general er, Mr.Mad dog Mattis telling Peroshenko that Ukraiina is guaranteed a spot for NATO member state..So Putin is indeed worried..
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3804
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sat Aug 26, 2017 5:07 pm

at46 wrote:
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:Definitely popcorn and adult beverage times if one is fortunate to be watching the northern hemisphere from a somewhat safe distance. Seems we all might have a different perspective but know the end game is nearer than near and now measured in months rather than years.
Interesting quote from the Chinese re. Japan. It's what the Russians have been saying for years:
Japan isn't behaving as it should as the world's third largest economy. It has been 72 years since the end of World War II, and Japan is still far behind its goal of becoming a politically important power. Japanese politicians are smart in using tactics. But they are usually strategically twisted and short-sighted, which is unfortunate for Asia.

Japan tightly binds itself to the US, and rejects China's peaceful rise to power. Such a choice is based on its simplistic understanding of power relations and inevitably results in a dilemma: It disorients itself when China-US relations improve, but fears the deterioration of China-US ties. The rise and fall of China-US ties creates a continuous nightmare for Japan. It could have lived more easily, as long as it erases its dark intentions on China.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063207.shtml
Hah, western opinion er, China and Russia lover ones. Japan has got to go where US is going. Japan can do nothing but engage if and when an aggression is imminent. Constitution implemented by US back 1945 and pushed upon defenseless Japan by the allied force. We can do nothing, as is written in the 9th article of Japanese constitution.

Fast forward 72 years after US~Japan WWII ended. For good or worse, we have to abide by that dreaded Japanese constitution..We are under the nuclear umbrella of the US and can do nothing unless the US approves of any action from Japan...It is so sad for a country that received 2 A-bombs that decimated hundreds of thousand people and flattened the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but in the UN assembly against the Nuclear proliferation, we have to take an absence due to US~Japan security pact. Another way, we can not bite the hands that feed us. Sad but true...
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

frozen-north
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1877
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:28 am

Re: The State of the States

Post by frozen-north » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:34 am


Donald Trump set to lift ban on military gear for police

US President Donald Trump's administration on Sunday was preparing to halt restrictions on miltary hardware for local police departments, multiple US news outlets reported.

Trump was planning to sign an executive order reversing a directive from former President Barack Obama that restricted police agency's access to military gear such as grenade launchers,....


http://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-set-t ... a-40262419
grenade launchers ???

The briefing reportedly cited two academic articles that found the program had reduced crime rates and did not increase deaths involving police. It said the equipment was "entirely defensive in nature,"

HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3804
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:24 pm

at46 wrote:
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:Definitely popcorn and adult beverage times if one is fortunate to be watching the northern hemisphere from a somewhat safe distance. Seems we all might have a different perspective but know the end game is nearer than near and now measured in months rather than years.
Interesting quote from the Chinese re. Japan. It's what the Russians have been saying for years:
Japan isn't behaving as it should as the world's third largest economy. It has been 72 years since the end of World War II, and Japan is still far behind its goal of becoming a politically important power. Japanese politicians are smart in using tactics. But they are usually strategically twisted and short-sighted, which is unfortunate for Asia.

Japan tightly binds itself to the US, and rejects China's peaceful rise to power. Such a choice is based on its simplistic understanding of power relations and inevitably results in a dilemma: It disorients itself when China-US relations improve, but fears the deterioration of China-US ties. The rise and fall of China-US ties creates a continuous nightmare for Japan. It could have lived more easily, as long as it erases its dark intentions on China.

apan tightly binds itself to the US, and rejects China's peaceful rise to power. Such a choice is based on its simplistic understanding of power relations and inevitably results in a dilemma: It disorients itself when China-US relations improve, but fears the deterioration of China-US ties. The rise and fall of China-US ties creates a continuous nightmare for Japan. It could have lived more easily, as long as it erases its dark intentions on China.
Such a derisory comment. Now convinced this Dude is Chinese or Putin's envoy?. For a long time I thought this individual to be an Anglo saxon but I was wrong.

China's peaceful rise to power? Don't make me laugh. Where is China's rise to power freaking peacefull? Looking to South China sea making of Paracel, Sratly, Scarborough into China's military bases, with airfield longer than 2km long and battery of missile silos on its reclaimed islets, where is the world "peaceful" comin' from? Ramming wooden fishing boats then sinking them from Vietnam, Philippine poor fisherman ..
Yeah, China's rise to power economically and militarily, but when world tribunal verdict comes upon them that they don't own those shoals, but then they initiated the land reclaiming despite.

China is a bandit state and they are expanding to the extent that 10 years from now, US~Japan has to contain them or else...China lures and invites to the free world to putting mortars to dirt erecting factories but then once put, they extort free transfer of the western or Japanese technology to their benefit. Germany will learn sooner or later that their honeymoon won't last long. But by the time the Germans awaken it may be too late for them. Japan is not joining the bandwagon unless China shows that they can assimilate western democracy...Wishing that Japan starts piling up in smart A-Bomb arsenal,we can silently build a thousand of them, we have enough nuke power spent fuel to build more than 4 thousand of them. it seems only way to deter the arrogant and perilous Red China bulling real peaceful nation and those in south east country as well.

Excerpt: Island-building 'Causing trouble'..Japan does not claim the South China Sea, a 3.5 million-square-kilometer body of water prized for fisheries and possible undersea fuel reserves.

Six other governments call all or part of it their own, creating friction since the 1960s. Over the past decade China has angered the others by using landfill to expand tiny islets and built military installations on some to fortify its claim to about 95 percent of the sea.

Japan, which does have maritime territorial disputes with Beijing in the East China Sea, will send the ship as part of a longer-term effort to vie with China’s influence in Southeast Asian coastal states while cooperating with the United States to bolster a broader power base in Asia, analysts say.

“Like China and the U.S., Japan is trying to consolidate its role as a leader in the region,” said Jonathan Spangler, director of the Taipei-based South China Sea Think Tank. “Part of this effort involves demonstrating that it has the capacity and courage to operate in areas well beyond its own borders.”

The United States hopes to stop Chinese island-building in the South China Sea and ensure freedom of navigation, an agenda that has angered Beijing but found a match in Tokyo.

Japan also cares about the safety of undersea communications infrastructure and China’s compliance with international laws.

https://www.voanews.com/a/japan-player- ... 73376.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349
https://www.forbes.com/sites/outofasia/ ... 4c79ed1c3b
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 724
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The State of the States

Post by mem » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:14 pm

My thought is that Japan will be taken off the board. Either through natural (ahem yes totally natural) cataclysm or the China axis will take over whatever is left if anything. China already disliked Japan deeply and now that Japan is in cahoots with the US, it has only gotten worse.

HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3804
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: The State of the States

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:57 pm

mem wrote:My thought is that Japan will be taken off the board. Either through natural (ahem yes totally natural) cataclysm or the China axis will take over whatever is left if anything. China already disliked Japan deeply and now that Japan is in cahoots with the US, it has only gotten worse.
In cahoot with the US, it is a destiny all precedence to 1945 at the deck of USS : Signing of the Japanese surrender document aboard the U.S.S. "Missouri" in Tokyo Bay, Sept. 2, 1945. Gen. Douglas MacArthur is shown broadcasting the ceremonies as Japanese Foreign Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu signed for the emperor Hirohito..

Yeah, the ungrateful China disliking Japan, when from back in the 70's we thought them ( wrong doing but the rest is history)
They stole HST technology from us and the Germans as well. All electric/electronic manufacturing plants and everything else..Now they wanting to export High speed train and rail road tech to outside world?
The US gave the modern democracy and ordered and prohibited Japan to never arm itself, instead the US alliance to which protects under the nuclear umbrella extends to today. Well, between the US, GB, and Japan axis vs the China~Russo and whomever from EU, must go against the Chinese threat, it is interesting to see which side will prevail. Japan is not that easy of a push over...We can be accumulating, 10s, 100s, 1000 of nuke war heads without external world to know, only the US knows about ,have enough spent fuel weapon grade plutonium to making 4000 A-Bomb, .It happened before, a-la-Israel !

But YES, as "mem" says, the Nankai through erupting under sea volcanoes provoking a 10 plus earthquake can engulf all 30% flatland of Japan only living the Mount Fuji visible..! bad thing is mem, it will reach all of Chile too, so be closer to the Andes!! ha,ha,haaa...
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

Post Reply