Corona Virus! (OLD)

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tiagoabner
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by tiagoabner » Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:20 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:57 pm
tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:56 am
I think that the main issue here is that there isn't enough data available from a reliable source. The Chinese government is far from being transparent. It's too early to run the numbers, we need to have a large enough sample size to be able to use statistics.

We'll probably take at least 6 months to have better data.
I picked up this link on the BA expat forum: https://www.thailandmedical.news/ Thailand and Singapore have the most Covid-19 cases outside of China, and Thailand should be free of any censorship by China, so maybe this website gives an independent viewpoint. They talk about the transmission mechanisms (presumably like the common cold, which is also a coronavirus), how long the virus can live, and so on.
They're reporting 33 cases in Thailand. Source: https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/t ... ncreasing-

That's really far from enough for good statistical data. A sample size that small simply isn't good enough to get meaningful data. It's also important to remember that Thailand is a military dictatorship, though, and a country with active censorship. They certainly aren't China, but I would adopt a "trust, but verify" stance on anything that comes out of official channels.
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PXYC
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by PXYC » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:29 pm

So I am at the airport in Santiago checking in to Los Angeles and there's a girl asking everyone in line if they went to China lately. And then 2 hours later I'm boarding and the same girl is stamping the boarding ticket person by person. She touches my hands. I immediatly think "great she has been touching everyones hands and now she also touched mine".
Ridiculous! I really hope coronavirus is not deadly. :lol:

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 am

so, it is now confirmed what everyone suspected: massive under reporting by the Chinese.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-of-cases

They changed how they are reporting to "clinical cases" to include unconfirmed / suspected cases and in one day are reporting over 14,000 additional cases, and 242 new deaths in just the hubie province. over 60,000 cases world wide.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:34 am

219 positive test on the cruise ship, but sounds like that cat is out of the bag among the passengers.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:35 am

Speaking at the same hearing, Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, said that China may be limited in its testing and reporting resources, versus simply "a lack of desire on the part of the Chinese government to report."

In public health schools, George said students are taught to assume they don't have complete data and account for cases they don't yet know about.

"We're often taught to multiply by seven or eight times what you've been told. For every one case you see, there are seven or eight out there that you don't," she explained. "So that means actually we'd be looking at hundreds of thousands of cases. I think that's the scale at which we should be planning."
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/12/asia ... index.html
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mem
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by mem » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:50 am

Yesterdays death toll shot up with 253 just yesterday. Not a good sign.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/

The foot note in Feb 12 says:
Feb. 12 data is provisional - 135 new deaths are due to the new diagnosis classification adopted by Hubei starting on Feb. 12

Not sure how deaths (versus cases) are being classified differently still.

mem
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by mem » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:57 am

admin wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 am
so, it is now confirmed what everyone suspected: massive under reporting by the Chinese.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-of-cases

They changed how they are reporting to "clinical cases" to include unconfirmed / suspected cases and in one day are reporting over 14,000 additional cases, and 242 new deaths in just the hubie province. over 60,000 cases world wide.

This is bananas. Did y'all see the previous "change" in metrics where China decided it was a good idea that if someone tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms they would NOT be counted as a confirmed case!

Now they are saying the opposite? And that all just applies to the cases number not the deaths number.

Total bananas trying to measure all of this when the metrics keep changing definition

Zero explanation on why deaths have shot up


Not enough tests...tests that give bad results.

In terms of cases it sounds like this is a more helpful way to count cases. But still it's just 1 province in China.

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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:21 pm

Someone on tv pointed out, this is totally meaningless, as we have no baseline stats related to just ho hum normal deaths or flue, or anything now or prior to the outbreak. They just started lumping everyone that died of anything remotely "flue like" as being the coronvirus.

Meanwhile, they pointed out that no one has been able to get normal medical care, without a test that they had coronvirus. So people are dying at home, of regular old medical conditions. People are also being quarantined, and unable to get medicines. So, people very well might be dying at higher rates, that do not have the virus.

In short, all they have done is muddy the water more.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:38 pm

o.k., so now the CDC is confirming that people can transmit the virus without showing symptoms, and many people that have tested positive showed little more than a mild soar throat.

https://cnnphilippines.com/world/2020/2 ... toms-.html
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by admin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:49 pm

well, this is encouraging. The mess related to the Who announcing a new name for the virus, while at the same time another group issued a different name; only it seems the name does not refer to the virus, but to the diese it causes, but not really, but kind of, while not trying not to stigmatize anyone or thing or animal or....

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02 ... -confusion
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FrankPintor
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by FrankPintor » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:41 am

This article gives some insight into counting or miscounting coronavirus infections: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/m ... story.html

“This looks to be a bad, heightened cold — I think that’s a rational way of thinking about it”

And about the difficulties in counting:

“The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from SARS, it’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.”

So yeah, neither the Chinese nor anyone else can produce an accurate count without testing everyone who has flu-like symptoms, which is a bit impractical, and it would probably cause the virus to spread even more were they to try. That's just the way it is. Other countries with travel restrictions and health checks at immigration might have a better chance of counting infections, but more probably not, given that the virus may not show any symptoms, and people have been traveling from China in December and January already.

The recommendations so far seem to be lots of hand-washing, get the normal flu vaccine (available here in March I believe) to avoid the possibility of going to a doctor and being around other sick people, masks aren't much good, and it seems people with mild symptoms are encouraged to self-isolate. It seems like over 80% of people with symptoms recover without any medical attention, the real recovery rate is probably much higher given the counting problem.
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Re: Corona Virus!

Post by herrybraun » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:06 pm

This is really a terrible epidermic virus and Corona has been spread about 30 countries and many people are dyeing due to this. On drone view, all Buhan and surrounding areas become to desolate. I pray that scientist to create an anti-corona vaccine soon.

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