Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

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41southchile
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:26 am

admin wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:35 pm
my bigger concern for chile, is all the migrants that are in Argentina deciding they are not going to stick around to see the conclusion of this dog and pony show. instead decide to move on to chile all at once
I think this is a possibility that is being overlooked by many.
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41southchile
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:27 am

admin wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:26 am
runs on the bank. who would have thought?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VN220
Going from bad to worse. Btw those are some huge doors on that bank in that photo
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:55 pm

well if you are confused about what is really going on in Argentina, your not alone. Here is a fun story regarding just how delusional Argentina has become about what is happening in Argentina. this guy went to Argentina for months, to learn the truth; he never found it.

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2 ... y-to-find/
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:37 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:35 pm
my bigger concern for chile, is all the migrants that are in Argentina deciding they are not going to stick around to see the conclusion of this dog and pony show. instead decide to move on to chile all at once
650000 Venezuelans in Argentina, that dont want to live through another economic collapse. 🤔
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arge ... SKCN1VQ18X
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:39 pm

well, macri is just digging a bigger and bigger hole.

big foreign investors that hold the majority of bonds are saying it is pointless to negotiate with macri's administration as he a lame duck, and Fernandez will likely just over turn any renegotiation of the debt when they take office.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/internaciona ... 82646.html

that leaves default or default.

i think i seen the current monthly rollover of debt is 30 billion dollars per month. a big problem for a country with around 10 billion in the bank (we think).
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:08 pm

“Many investors thought Argentina was on its way to becoming Chile or Colombia -- stable, investment grade,” said Leo Chialva, a partner at Buenos Aires-based consulting firm Delphos Investment. “Those large funds are horrified by the latest measures.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... -argentina

I think this all falls clearly under "you stupid, stupid morons".

I have to admit I am truly enjoying, in a rather perverse manner, the shear growing body count among foreign investors that got burned by this latest crisis. They all seem to be fairly young money mangers too. what were most of them doing back in 2001? Probably not investing Argentina. Their biggest crisis was probably trying to control their pimples.

Kind of reminds me of that allegory about the frog that gives the scorpion a ride on his back across the river, then gets stung half way across the river. as they are both drowning. the frog asks the scorpion why he stung him. He replies, "I'm Argentinan".

:lol:
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:51 am

so, estimates, 2 days old, that Argentina has under 10 billion dollars left. they burned 8 billion in a week trying to support the peso.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... money/amp/

even if the IMF hands over the next 5 billion, that will perhaps buy a week or two at the current rate.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:09 pm

here is an article on the growth in investment of chilean companies in peru, to put in perspective the Argentina exposure of chile (and the lost potential).

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/ind ... 95505.html

I actually find the numbers suspiciously low. 20 billion, over 27 years?

in the graph they are showing say 600 million to a billion dollars per year; but, i can think of at least a few major chilean companies that each is doing that or more a year. i think copec is in for like 800 million for a copper mind. fallabela announced like 1.5 billion i think.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:01 pm

so, the stock market regulators are asking chilean companies to report their exposure and impact of the exchange rate restrictions for Argentina.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/ind ... 70858.html

the good news is most chilean companies seen this sucker coming years ago, and have all been to this shit show before.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by admin » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:39 am

here it comes. more currency controls.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VX04R

I just keep seeing more and more foriegn investors on stock forums and web sites getting all excited about the "great deal" Argentina is right now. This is just a dead gato bounce, that Argentina always does to sucker in the last dollars they can, before pulling the rug out from under the pyramid scheme. This time is not different. In fact, it is exactly the same.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by 41southchile » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:04 am

admin wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:39 am
here it comes. more currency controls.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VX04R

I just keep seeing more and more foriegn investors on stock forums and web sites getting all excited about the "great deal" Argentina is right now. This is just a dead gato bounce, that Argentina always does to sucker in the last dollars they can, before pulling the rug out from under the pyramid scheme. This time is not different. In fact, it is exactly the same.
My friend who makes prosthetics once explained the difference in the treatment for diabetes patients in New Zealand and tiny poor Pacific island countries. NZ health system supposedly has money and tries their best to accommodate the patient .
In NZ when a diabetic patient presents with circulation problems in their toes they cut the toes off, the patient is devastated, but inevitably doesn't do much to change their lifestyle choices and 6 months or a year later they go back and have to have a foot removed. Now it's a lot more complicated for them and have to adjust, but inevitably in another year or two they are back and have to have the leg cut off at the knee .
In the Pacific islands, with less money the patient comes in the first time and they simply say, we know the eventual outcome let's cut off at the knee right now and they do, the patient in the Pacific islands is emotionally and physically adjusted in a year or so.
Where as the NZ one has cost a fortune for the public health system and three different operations and the emotion and physical issues as well as 4 or 5 years lost to get to the same point as the Pacific islands one in a year.
Argentina should have had its leg cut off at the thigh in 2001.
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Re: Argentina Economy, Election, and possible default?

Post by FrankPintor » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:36 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:39 am
here it comes. more currency controls.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VX04R

I just keep seeing more and more foriegn investors on stock forums and web sites getting all excited about the "great deal" Argentina is right now. This is just a dead gato bounce, that Argentina always does to sucker in the last dollars they can, before pulling the rug out from under the pyramid scheme. This time is not different. In fact, it is exactly the same.
That's just to close a loophole that allowed people to buy Dollars at one rate and sell them at another... there was a 4% profit per transaction, and some people were doing it several times a day. With reference to the toe/foot/knee amputation analogy below, the correct way to stop the Dollar churning would be not to have different exchange rates, but Argentina doesn't seem to work like that. It's always a patch here, plaster there, a little adjustment followed by another one until it all falls apart.
Caracas es Caracas. Lo demás es monte y culebra!

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