Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

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Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:09 am

I am seeing some early signs of life in interest in international investors in Chile. Still early, but from individuals looking to buy land and move to Chile to international corporations trying to position by expandung in to Chile, there is some suprising amount of action given the circumstances.

Now, can Chile capitalize on that?

I am seeing some stick their neck out for calls for copper in the $12,000 a ton (about double current price) or about $8-9 per pound from the current about $4,3 per pound, and a 10 year bull run on prices due to increased demand for copper for renewable / development on the one hand, and lack of new mines on the other. There is also the inflation trade, as people run for commodities.

on the dollar front, I don't see any way the fed can tighten for a very long time, and seems not even in the face of mild inflation.

The u.s., and every other country, is going to be stimulus spending for a very long time; while blowing up the balance sheet. sovereign debt around the world will set new records.

even though chile has spent a lot in recent years, including the pandemic, the budget debt is still light years ahead of, well, just about every country on the planet. definitely in latin america.

There is going to be a lot of money sloshing around the world as this pandemic ends, for a very long time.

I could see the peso taking a run at sub-500 to the dollar again. definitely going to revisit 600 again.

Ironically, what Chile needs to do is spend too. time to make those long term development investments, such as fixing the education system, snuffing out the last of the extreme poverty, get off the oil tit once and for all, etc. Basically all the reforms the left has been screeming about for years; just this time, they might get the economist on the right to agree with them.

Chile has a chance to reach escape velocity from the middle income trap over tge next 10 years.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:27 am

oh, and fix the dam pension system.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by ghibli » Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:19 am

What you say is surely a good analysis of a possible future, but chances of success will be greatly improved if people will refrain from throwing out the "commie" and "fascist" labels. Forgive me for stating the obvious: what chile (and the world) needs is long term planning and some respect for others. Not likely in an environment of name calling and rock throwing . Those words "long term planning" don't figure in many people's equation, alas.

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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:28 pm

ghibli wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:19 am
What you say is surely a good analysis of a possible future, but chances of success will be greatly improved if people will refrain from throwing out the "commie" and "fascist" labels. Forgive me for stating the obvious: what chile (and the world) needs is long term planning and some respect for others. Not likely in an environment of name calling and rock throwing . Those words "long term planning" don't figure in many people's equation, alas.
well, the "commie" label typically applies well to the far left, because there is literally a "comunist party" in chile; plus, a large slice of the left at one time or another were active members of the communist party of chile. Many are simply in the socialist party. They just moved to another party name because the Communist simply don't win elections. That is besides the kids in the streets that just love the branding. everything from the actual communist flag to the che t-shirts.

As for the "Fastist", there are few of them too on the far right. They actually think hitler and nazi party is a thing still.

but, yea, randomly assigning some shade between those two extreames is complicated, probably not fair, and almost impossible to do accurately because of the tendency to swap party labels in chile as soon as one wears out from bad press and no longer can get elected.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by scandinavian » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:46 pm

Talking about communists:
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... cion.shtml
Apparently he is "candidato constituyente".
Seriously hope that Chileans realize that he is so not needed for writing a new constitution

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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:47 pm

As long as the two extremes dictate it is our way or no way and their refusal to even sit down at the same table due to past injustices real or imagined, then Chile will always be Chile and by chance might just muddle through with an above average for the region step forward if the center can hold the day or perhaps not...and we get a front row seat to watch and comment as resident foreigners.
Que será, será.

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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:51 pm

scandinavian wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:46 pm
Talking about communists:
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... cion.shtml
Apparently he is "candidato constituyente".
Seriously hope that Chileans realize that he is so not needed for writing a new constitution
Remember, all these elected commies (OK I said it) refused to condemn the violence with some egging the antifa playbook foot soldiers on behind the scenes.
Que será, será.

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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:15 pm

scandinavian wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:46 pm
Talking about communists:
https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nac ... cion.shtml
Apparently he is "candidato constituyente".
Seriously hope that Chileans realize that he is so not needed for writing a new constitution
Even the communist don't deserve him. He is just frigen nut job.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:43 am

so pinera announced his new pension / social security plan.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... ierno.html
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:01 am

so more details on the pinera pension.

no pension below the poverty line, with a minium pension equal to the minum wage.

6% increase from employers, 3% goes to a general pension fund to subsidize people with low pensions.

estimated cost 4 to 4.5 billion dollars through 2030 (not sure I am.buying that number), but if accurate, chile can more than handle that.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... iones.html

establish a noneprofit brokerage to compete with private pension system, with profits returned to investors. guess they are shooting for jack bogle / vanguard model here. I have been saying this was needed for a while.

private pensions will have to refund 20% of their commission, in years they have negative returns (they are already screaming about this).
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:10 pm

so, IMF is now estimating 6% growth for Chile for 2021.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Global Post-pandemic Economy and Chile

Post by admin » Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:55 pm

copper reaches 10 year high, and is flirting with its all time high.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N2L80WF

with the new stimulus bill out of the states, there is talk of a U.S. infrastructure bill following in the range of 3 trillion. just about every other country is going to have stimulus of some form also as the pandemic end clmes in to sight.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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