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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:01 pm
by Zenth
Gold pays no dividend. You have to pay to keep it safe.
Unless you’re an active trader, willing to risk thousands for a quick gain of a few dollars, stay away.
If you are fascinated with the element, buy a necklace or ring of 18 or 22 carat gold and enjoy it every day.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:20 pm
by gregf
Thanks for the insights in here. I am very cautious by nature so I think I will take the idea of studying and doung all the research, and observing...

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:23 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
Black swans kill all including trusted reserve currencies.

It is what it is. My crystal ball broke long ago but little birds still speak to me, more often these days than even last year...

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:46 am
by nikotromus
gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm
Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...
I would shy away from a precious metals fund because then what's the difference between that paper and the other paper instruments out there? Plenty I am sure, but at the end of the day they're all still paper. Only buy PM's if you have a strong distrust of the banking and monetary system, and it gives you some feeling of security to hold it in your hands. So, if you need something hard and solid to set your coke can down on metaphorically speaking, buy PM's.

Right now I think Admin is on target with gold being a risky purchase. It will likely dip back down again as it always does. Wait for a buying opportunity if you think it still interests you.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:27 am
by tiagoabner
nikotromus wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:46 am
gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm
Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...
I would shy away from a precious metals fund because then what's the difference between that paper and the other paper instruments out there? Plenty I am sure, but at the end of the day they're all still paper. Only buy PM's if you have a strong distrust of the banking and monetary system, and it gives you some feeling of security to hold it in your hands. So, if you need something hard and solid to set your coke can down on metaphorically speaking, buy PM's.

Right now I think Admin is on target with gold being a risky purchase. It will likely dip back down again as it always does. Wait for a buying opportunity if you think it still interests you.
Quick question: how much of your portfolio is currently allocated to gold and other previous metals?

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:18 am
by admin
gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:20 pm
Thanks for the insights in here. I am very cautious by nature so I think I will take the idea of studying and doung all the research, and observing...
I am not a fan of gold, but if you are sitting on a 1% bond fund for 20 years you might want to find something in a nice, safe, and dull investment that is going to provide some better returns.

Even a dull broadly diversified index fund that has dividends at say 3% to 5% would goose your returns without really adding any real risks over 20+ years substantially. vanguard has some of the cheapest in the world.

honestly, I don't think bonds are any safer than anything else in an absolute risk / return sense; and the risk is you simply make nothing better than inflation or less. guess they are fine if you are an insurance company or something with a trillion dollars is future liability. for small investors, they rarely cover the cost of ownership, and are not risk free.

few years back we were sitting on some CDs as we were looking for a longer term investment property. I calculated they did not even cover the cost of gas to go to the bank to cash them; never mind the time waisted messing with them.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:06 am
by hlf2888
nikotromus wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:46 am
gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm
Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...
I would shy away from a precious metals fund because then what's the difference between that paper and the other paper instruments out there? Plenty I am sure, but at the end of the day they're all still paper. Only buy PM's if you have a strong distrust of the banking and monetary system, and it gives you some feeling of security to hold it in your hands. So, if you need something hard and solid to set your coke can down on metaphorically speaking, buy PM's.

Right now I think Admin is on target with gold being a risky purchase. It will likely dip back down again as it always does. Wait for a buying opportunity if you think it still interests you.
what are PMs?

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:29 am
by papageno
hlf2888 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:06 am
nikotromus wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:46 am
gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm
Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...
I would shy away from a precious metals fund because then what's the difference between that paper and the other paper instruments out there? Plenty I am sure, but at the end of the day they're all still paper. Only buy PM's if you have a strong distrust of the banking and monetary system, and it gives you some feeling of security to hold it in your hands. So, if you need something hard and solid to set your coke can down on metaphorically speaking, buy PM's.

Right now I think Admin is on target with gold being a risky purchase. It will likely dip back down again as it always does. Wait for a buying opportunity if you think it still interests you.
what are PMs?
Precious Metals

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am
by gregf
I don't have any money in gold or metals.

My only investments are my 401k, which I don't touch (with Vanguard) and around 30k cash. Most of the cash is in a savings account that is actually NOT 1% even, but 0.35%.

The money I would invest now would need to be liquid enough to get out in emergency. I just think there has to be something better to do than sit on my cash savings getting 0.35%.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am
by gregf
I am only just starting to get to a place where I am saving and thinking of the future more, unfortunately.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:52 am
by hlf2888
thanks papageno :-)

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:58 pm
by nikotromus
tiagoabner wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:27 am
Quick question: how much of your portfolio is currently allocated to gold and other previous metals?
I like to think of it as more of a collection. Like baseball cards. An investment is synonymous with some level of excitement. PM's are like watching paint dry year after year. Except of course these last couple of months. I don't think what we're seeing is PM's rising, but rather the fiat around it dying.

The really smart investor would brainstorm what the system wants and what the system is pushing, and then make it rain based on those instruments. So, things like fake meat (BYND) and electric vehicles (TSLA) and video conferencing tools (ZM) and the fiat of the future with cryptos and cloud based services (SHOP) and of course the systems golden children in retailing who were chosen to succeed like Walmart and Amazon.

Zoom was at $114 in April, and Tesla and Shopify were at 300 in January. So many opportunities. I made a few hundred bucks shorting zoom down to that level, but missed the big picture. If only I had a time machine.