Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:58 pm

just a little fuel on the fire, hurricane season set to meet pandemic season in the southern United States.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/i-was-a-m ... ep-trouble
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by Huelshoff » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:54 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:52 pm
There is another phenomenon that happens during a deep recession that I keep seeing pop-up, but almost no economist I have seen try to address.

people that downgrade their employment and their income. I guess generally you could call it "under employment"; but, that does not really capture it. In under employment someone say has their hours cut back.

what I am talking about is say the school teacher with a diploma, taking whatever work they can get. say a greeter at wall mart.

They take both a social productivity hit and an income hit, but are otherwise counted as employed.
In the US, that is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as U6. Regular unemployment is U3. Here is their latest quarterly report on it: https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:30 pm

Huelshoff wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:54 pm
admin wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:52 pm
There is another phenomenon that happens during a deep recession that I keep seeing pop-up, but almost no economist I have seen try to address.

people that downgrade their employment and their income. I guess generally you could call it "under employment"; but, that does not really capture it. In under employment someone say has their hours cut back.

what I am talking about is say the school teacher with a diploma, taking whatever work they can get. say a greeter at wall mart.

They take both a social productivity hit and an income hit, but are otherwise counted as employed.
In the US, that is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as U6. Regular unemployment is U3. Here is their latest quarterly report on it: https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
yea, i am aware of that stat, but it is one of those fuzzy political stats that are at best a laggard.
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Huelshoff
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by Huelshoff » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:43 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:30 pm
Huelshoff wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:54 pm
admin wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:52 pm
There is another phenomenon that happens during a deep recession that I keep seeing pop-up, but almost no economist I have seen try to address.

people that downgrade their employment and their income. I guess generally you could call it "under employment"; but, that does not really capture it. In under employment someone say has their hours cut back.

what I am talking about is say the school teacher with a diploma, taking whatever work they can get. say a greeter at wall mart.

They take both a social productivity hit and an income hit, but are otherwise counted as employed.
In the US, that is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as U6. Regular unemployment is U3. Here is their latest quarterly report on it: https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
yea, i am aware of that stat, but it is one of those fuzzy political stats that are at best a laggard.
I disagree. The BLS is a pretty serious place. The Trump Administration tried to suggest that their data was politically biased recently, and got smacked down by both liberals and conservatives. Underemployment may be hard to measure, but they give it their best. Granted, all stats are inexact, but we like to hope that the errors are at least randomly distributed. That assumption is implicit in all the stats that we reference all the time: GDP, unemployment, etc.They all lag, and they all get updated with (hopefully) more accurate data. Regarding the specific example, underemployment, BLS and other economists send a lot of time trying to refine their measurement techniques. Having worked with economic and social data all my life I am under no illusions that their measurements are perfect, but they are all we have. By the way, a quick look at Google Scholar showed 127,000 articles that had the word underemployment in their title, 3800 published in 2020 alone.

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:23 am

so the u.s. now has in the pipe,

a massive surge in covid cases.

end of unemployment benfits baked in, as even if Congress got its act together it will be a while before more money started flowing again.

eviction moratorium ending
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/2 ... nds-381394

over 40 million student loan borrowers need to start paying again

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/2 ... iff-381373

and unemployment numbers on the rise again

I am betting the markets are not going to like any of that through the second half of the year. probably going to last in to January or February, at least.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by Huelshoff » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:37 am

To that you could add probably a half dozen more problems, including a stock market that seems increasingly untied to reality, a president seemingly hell bent on creating violence in cities (3000 protesters in the streets of Portland last night), an election campaign guaranteed to be one of the dirtiest in a long time, a high probability of electoral instability after 3 November, .... I think the US economy will be in a world of hurt for some time.

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:42 pm

and

first hurricane makes land fall in the middle of a pandemic in texas today.

just a little cat 1 to warm-up, but more on the way as this is one of the earliest hurricanes on record.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by nikotromus » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:27 pm

Son of a gun, not a bad time to be in gold and silver aye? Not nearly as good as Beyond Meat or Tesla, but still better than sitting on a 1% savings account and watching king dollar get flushed down the tiolet.

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:28 pm

yea, my copper miners ran so far so fast I actually started taking some money off the table. as most produce a respectable amount of gold, the gold price probably did not hurt them either. gold and copper are not suppose to move together, according to folk lore.

I will probably regret that later, but I'm happy results for being just mid-year.

Kind of expecting a short-term reality check on these markets anyway. willing to rinse and repeat if there is a pullback.
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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by gregf » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm

Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:14 pm

This is not investment advice and I do not hold any kind of financial license to operate in Chile.

With that said, it's hard to go wrong with a dumb "index funds + bonds" portfolio. I'm invested 75% in stocks, 20% in bonds and I have 5% in what I call "fun/what if" money. That's the only part that I invest in anything other than index funds and bonds. I'm not a fan of speculative investments, such as bitcoin, but I would use part of that 5% to invest in it.

You might as well make sure that you have all your ducks in a row before doing anything "fancy". Don't risk your retirement going all in on pretty much anything. Diversification is the name of the business.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Post by admin » Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:23 pm

gregf wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:37 pm
Outside of a 401k that is totally invested in a Vanguard vehicle for retirement in like 25 years, I don't have investments and haven't ever done it before. I have done some reading but never dipped my toe in. I also don't have tons of funds.

I have around 20k in a "high yield savings account" that gets like 1% interest. I am wondering about putting some of that into a gold ETF and -- god forgive me -- possibly some bitcoin...
I don't think now is a good time to start learning about the markets with real money. Perhaps a good time to study the market, as this might be a once in a lifetime type situation. Just the learning curve could be very steep right now.

Buying gold was possibly a good idea back in like Feb or March. Now, you would just be setting yourself up to catch a falling knife, as the upside is much less than that down side. There is a better chance it goes to $1,500 an ounce before it get's to $2,500 an ounce, and $2,000 plus change might be all that is left in that play.

Gold is just too slow for my taste. People have been sitting on bad gold bets from 2008 financial crisis, waiting to get their $1800 an ounce back or whatever they over paid for their gold.

This market has gotten ahead of itself. Wait until a few more rounds of political B.S. related to the next stimulus package freaks the markets out over the next few weeks (months). The longer it all goes on, the more jittery the markets will get as the election approaches.

I am playing industrial related stocks and commodities. Copper miners and oil pipelines mostly. Sooner or later someone is going to want to build something, or move something, or both. In the meantime a falling U.S. dollar tends to boost both. I also like to stick to fat dividen payers (8 to 20% is nice), in the event I have to sit on the investment a while.

When I pick an investment, I like to find one with a short, middle, and long term thesis behind it, in the event I make a mistake.

I look at the charts, momentum, etc, and see if there is a good chance of a short-term pop over weeks or a few months. Say a stock is at a new 52 week low or better, for no fault of its own.

Then, I look at both charts and the company, to see is there something that will have a good chance say pop over a year or more.

Then I look for a long-term thesis, typically related to the industry, such as copper demand going up while supply is going down. Some mega trend.

I often do that in reverse. Starting with some mega trend, and drill down through various potential stocks until I find one with a short-term pop potential.

Finding one with a big, relatively safe dividend helps me hang in there and not get an itchy sell finger, if the short-term or mid-term thesis does not happen.

I have also quit buying ETFs, if I am chasing a mid to long-term thesis. No sense in paying the fees. I will however look at an ETF that fits my objective, dig in to the top say 10 holdings, and then buy those directly. Sort of build my own ETF, to cover an industry or corner of the market that might be a long-term play.
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