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Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:40 pm
by admin
permanent unemployment in many industries is coming:

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEB ... id=US%3Aen

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:32 pm
by nikotromus
It will be interesting to see if government keeps track of these deaths.

"Here’s the paragraph from Thomas’ book that applies: “According to one study a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate will be associated with 37,000 deaths including 20,000 heart attacks, 920 suicides, 650 homicides, 4,000 state mental hospital admissions and 3,300 state prison admissions.”

https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explainin ... ronavirus/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:14 am
by admin
nikotromus wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:32 pm
It will be interesting to see if government keeps track of these deaths.

"Here’s the paragraph from Thomas’ book that applies: “According to one study a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate will be associated with 37,000 deaths including 20,000 heart attacks, 920 suicides, 650 homicides, 4,000 state mental hospital admissions and 3,300 state prison admissions.”

https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explainin ... ronavirus/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM
yea, I would not put too much stock in those sound bites and click bait statistics.

yes, I am certain there are all sorts of secondary effects of unemployment, but no one has stats that accurate on any of those social ills.

a 1% unemployment rate in say Beverly hills is not the same as a 1% increase in unemployment in Bangladesh or Iowa or wherever.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:41 am
by admin
Then there is the whole 'exponential cumulative' thing. being unemployed with say a 8% unemployment rate is a whole different animal from 20% plus unemployment, with no real ETA on the end of all this.

I have some distant relatives that have always struggled to make ends meet. We don't stay in touch much. however, I just heard that out of 4 adults in the household, all 4 lost their jobs at the same time. I think back in 2008 just one of them was briefly laid off.

hard to just polish up the old resume and hit the pavement in the middle of a pandemic with everyone else unemployed too.

Then you got the whole 'how long does it last' problem, and we do have lots of data on the damage caused by people being unemployed for longer periods.

na, I think this time really is different.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:31 am
by admin
on the one hand this is interesting that this researcher nailed the date of crisis; on the other hand, I want to say this was too frigen obvious to give him much credit.

https://time.com/5852397/turchin-2020-p ... /?amp=true

The real test will be when the extra unemployment benefits run out at the end of july in the United States.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:28 pm
by admin
here is the reason, rich people make up 2/3 of consumer spending in the united states, that don't need government stimulus, are simply not spending; especially on services.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/87894630 ... he-economy

That is probably very similar in Chile.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:50 pm
by Jamers41
admin wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:28 pm
here is the reason, rich people make up 2/3 of consumer spending in the united states, that don't need government stimulus, are simply not spending; especially on services.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/87894630 ... he-economy

That is probably very similar in Chile.
Although exports are likely more important for a small market such as Chile......I doubt consumer spending sustains close to 70% of the economy here.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:17 am
by admin
Jamers41 wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:50 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:28 pm
here is the reason, rich people make up 2/3 of consumer spending in the united states, that don't need government stimulus, are simply not spending; especially on services.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/87894630 ... he-economy

That is probably very similar in Chile.
Although exports are likely more important for a small market such as Chile......I doubt consumer spending sustains close to 70% of the economy here.
The economy. no; but, jobs possibly.

I have not seen the breakdown of jobs numbers recently. Especially in the informal sectors, service sector is massive.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:44 am
by tiagoabner
admin wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:17 am
Jamers41 wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:50 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:28 pm
here is the reason, rich people make up 2/3 of consumer spending in the united states, that don't need government stimulus, are simply not spending; especially on services.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/87894630 ... he-economy

That is probably very similar in Chile.
Although exports are likely more important for a small market such as Chile......I doubt consumer spending sustains close to 70% of the economy here.
The economy. no; but, jobs possibly.

I have not seen the breakdown of jobs numbers recently. Especially in the informal sectors, service sector is massive.
I don't have data to back it up, so take this as an anecdote. But my perception is that Chilean stores and service providers are grossly overstaffed.

I went to a Sodimac today to get some items for my move. They had five people cleaning fallen leaves in front of the store, ten-ish working on setting items close to the store's entrance and there were employees idly chatting all over the place.

I haven't ever seen so many people idle in stores, even in other Latin American countries. It always looks like stores are overstaffed in order to lower unemployment statistics.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:39 am
by nikotromus
tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:44 am
It always looks like stores are overstaffed in order to lower unemployment statistics.
If stores like Sodimac are for profit entities, then why would they care about a country's unemployment statistics? Perhaps there is some sort of government incentive for it? At any rate, government can manipulate unemployment stats however they wish.

Even before the crisis this can be seen all over the place at businesses like the gas stations. Like I really need someone to pump my gas. Or the overwhelming number of security guards who are never fighting crime. It's not just the private sector. The amount of government employees that are literally sweeping garbage in the streets with a hand held broom is staggering. If these are some of the "filler jobs" that we can see, just imagine what we can't see.

I don't think this is a bad thing. In a world of increasing automation, where the hell are people going to find work? It's better than a welfare check or massive amounts of people on the streets with no purpose.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:20 am
by tiagoabner
nikotromus wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:39 am
tiagoabner wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:44 am
It always looks like stores are overstaffed in order to lower unemployment statistics.
If stores like Sodimac are for profit entities, then why would they care about a country's unemployment statistics? Perhaps there is some sort of government incentive for it? At any rate, government can manipulate unemployment stats however they wish.

Even before the crisis this can be seen all over the place at businesses like the gas stations. Like I really need someone to pump my gas. Or the overwhelming number of security guards who are never fighting crime. It's not just the private sector. The amount of government employees that are literally sweeping garbage in the streets with a hand held broom is staggering. If these are some of the "filler jobs" that we can see, just imagine what we can't see.

I don't think this is a bad thing. In a world of increasing automation, where the hell are people going to find work? It's better than a welfare check or massive amounts of people on the streets with no purpose.
I'm not sure why they are so grossly overstaffed. But the fact stands that they are overstaffed. Maybe they are trying to compensate for the fact that the average Chilean isn't too productive...?

Haven't you ever seen a grossly overstaffed Chilean store? It's such a common sight that it's most likely not due to chance.

Re: Global Economy, recession, depression, or...

Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:48 am
by nikotromus
Yes. Of course. I'm agreeing with you. It's mind blowing to see it. I like to think it's done with good intentions, but we'll likely never know why.

What happens after this crisis when/if the system can no longer afford to float all of those poor souls? It might make the riots in October look like a bible study prayer session with a late afternoon bonfire to roast some marshmallows. :-(