Market crash! We have another Black Monday

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scandinavian
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by scandinavian » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:57 pm

I think that is highly optimistic and way too rational in this situation. What will happen when companies start to fire people and report losses or bankruptcy?

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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:45 pm

how do you price in the unknown?

france and spain have shutdown all none essential commerce. three of the largest economies in europe are offline, and more are coming.

The u.s. is going to start shutting down, probably city by city first, then state by state, by the end of next week, mas o menos; which if they don't, will cause even more problems.
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by gregf » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:33 pm

By the end of the week there will be more drastic measures taken. If we are starting to test more, and several days further along our hockey stick path, the data will not be good and hysteria will crank up.

In two weeks, worse.

In three...

As we seem to still not be doing anything to try to mitigate the disaster... if this is bad enough could it up end the global markets totally as we know it? How bad can this get (economic/trade/social stability wise)?

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tiagoabner
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by tiagoabner » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:46 pm

gregf wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:33 pm
By the end of the week there will be more drastic measures taken. If we are starting to test more, and several days further along our hockey stick path, the data will not be good and hysteria will crank up.

In two weeks, worse.

In three...

As we seem to still not be doing anything to try to mitigate the disaster... if this is bad enough could it up end the global markets totally as we know it? How bad can this get (economic/trade/social stability wise)?
How bad can it get? It's up to your imagination. Expect massive hits to the GDP of all countries in the world this year. Say, up to 5% for countries that have an efficient response and get through this relatively unscathed, and the sky is the limit for those who are hit really badly.

Let's say the Indian government screws this up as badly as they seem to be doing. There are 1.4 billion Indians, so there's easily the potential for 20+ million people dead there by the end of the year. How will their economy react to that many people dying? How many others will die when their public health system collapse?

The bad case here has really dire prospects, and any government that isn't taking this seriously is working against the interests of its citizens.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:41 pm

The one investment that I keep thinking about making, and I never had much interest in it before, is video games.

years ago I read this article on why Israeli spend so much per person on video games compared to the rest of the world.

The reason was simple: terrorist.

Parents give their kids big budgets to spend on games, because it keeps them and their friends out of malls, off bus stops, etc.

well, if you are going to lock down hundreds of millions of kids, never mind all the adults that play, video game companies are going to do very, very well.

I already see the movie industry is skipping theaters and sending new movies directly online.
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tiagoabner
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by tiagoabner » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:19 pm

admin wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:41 pm
The one investment that I keep thinking about making, and I never had much interest in it before, is video games.

years ago I read this article on why Israeli spend so much per person on video games compared to the rest of the world.

The reason was simple: terrorist.

Parents give their kids big budgets to spend on games, because it keeps them and their friends out of malls, off bus stops, etc.

well, if you are going to lock down hundreds of millions of kids, never mind all the adults that play, video game companies are going to do very, very well.

I already see the movie industry is skipping theaters and sending new movies directly online.
There's a running joke on my friend group that we're all going to start our kids on collectible card games when they're kids so they don't have spare money down the line to do drugs. :lol:

I guess video games work as well.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:53 pm

Fed dropped interest rates to 0.0 to 0.25%

That is just going to blow the market with panic, after perhaps the initial sugar rush in the morning.
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:55 pm

700 billion quantitative easing program launched by the fed on a sunday.

yea, that makes me feel good.

well over a trillion was wiped off the economy, not even wall street, over this weekend.
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:53 pm

markets have already hit their limit down in futures.

the fed just burned the largest pile of dollars in history, and got nothing in return.
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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by Space Cat » Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:57 pm

...but try to propose public healthcare or college and every US right-winger* goes full "HOWUGONPAYFORIT" mode.

* including the "moderate democrats"

By the way, still no US elections thread this time!

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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:43 am

Popcorn time.
There are two ways to be fooled.

One is to believe what isn't true;

the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

- Søren Kierkegaard

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Re: Market crash! We have another Black Monday

Post by admin » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:28 am

preview of the coming global recession/ depression out of china.

https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... my-warning
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