Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by admin » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:23 am

what was interesting was the rise in wages outside of Santiago. looks like about a 6 to 8% rise in the regions.

I don't know I buy that the uneducated chileans are hurting that bad. things like the mining, salmon, other industries have been moving along, and the new union law has provided some leverage over wages. If only a small percentage can push wages, that tends to drag all wages up. that however takes time.

but, yea, they never had nor will they ever be able to move wages as fast as the professional class in chile pay.

for them, automation is coming for their jobs in a big way; that will leave them in compition with better educated, and willing to work for lower wages, new arrivals.

we seen this automation issue show-up in the wall mart strike, where the workers were trying to demand some sort of guarantee that their jobs would not be automated away. unfortunately, all they were doing was making the case for it. machines don't strike.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by 41southchile » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:56 pm

Can't remember what thread we talking about growth projections, I think after May I said would be lucky to get to 3 percent, but pinera and Larrin were still crowing it would be 3.5.
Saw this today
ActualidadJosé de Gregorio y proyección económica: "Vamos a crecer entre 2,5 y 3%"
El académico de la U. de Chile y ex presidente del Banco Central aseguró que "hay que mirar la deuda y la evolución de la deuda" del país, dijo que este año habrá menos crecimiento de lo esperado y que "estamos con una economía relativamente débil"
Of course I like being right (and still aren't yet ) but when they continually make BS promises and massaged projections that the average Joe like me can see right through it kind of irks me . Piñeras 3.5 percent was doubtful after the poor results in Q1. But still they spun the bs line rather than being straight up, more egg on their face and more reputation damage that make people more cynical, its reminiscent of MB govt and their continual downgrades of projections in 2015/16, not as bad but the pattern is the same
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by admin » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:01 pm

this article hits a nail on the head, of an idea that I have been sort of scratching in the back of my own head for a while.

namley, do we really care about income inequality, or something else?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... nd=premium

seems people's perception of rising income inequality goes down, when wages are rising (and probably personal wealth).

Do I really care that say bill gates or warren buffet made a billion dollars more than me last year?

not really. Good for them.

I care more about that while Bill and Warren did better last year than the year before, did I also do better last year than I did the year before.

again this is an itch in the back of my head I have not completed scratching, but I think it also is closely tied to populus political movements, tendencies of voters to swing left or right, and perhaps something more useful than merely blaiming income inequality for everything (which I don't think solving, solves anything really).

It is probably the soil communist and socialist movement in the 19th century germinated in, and led to the whole mess that was the 20th century. The industrial revolution, and the deindustrialization and automation now, are very creepy in their similarities.

I have always said all elections are local, as in local to every voters wallet. How is my family and friends doing this year? are we all better off?

In more concreate economic terms, that probably means are real wages rising? is my house going up more in value than my mortgage? are the kids getting a better education? are there more opportunities? etc, etc.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by fraggle092 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:23 pm

They can talk up growth and recovery, but....
.
Screenshot-2019-7-9 Exportaciones caen 16%.jpg
'
Screenshot-2019-7-17 Moody’s Investors advierte impacto negativo en la clasificación soberana de Chile por menores ingresos[...].png
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by 41southchile » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:29 am

Las exportaciones chilenas, indicó Aduanas, sumaron US$36.747 millones en la primera mitad del año en curso, que suponen una merma del 5,9% en comparación con el primer semestre del año pasado, mientras en volumen la baja fue del 11 %, hasta las 30.438.028 toneladas.

Por países, los principales destinos de los productos chilenos fueron, en valor, China, con un 30% del total y una baja del 8,2 %, seguida de Estados Unidos, con un 14,3% y una merma del 13,4 %, Japón, con un 9,6% y un aumento del 2,8%, mientras Corea del Sur tuvo una participación del 7,2% respecto del total y un incremento del 12,6%.

Entre los países de la región, el principal destino fue Brasil, con una participación del 4,3% y una caída del 7,9%, seguido de Perú, con un 2,7% de participación, un 4,3% más que en la primera mitad del 2018, y de México, con un 1,8% de participación, que representa una baja del 2,4%.

Some big falls in there from the two biggest markets China and USA, smaller markets Japan , Sth Korea and Peru the only increases, what was that about all your eggs ? Chile needs to keep growing other countries, with higher value goods, they have a lot to offer outside of minerals
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by 41southchile » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:31 am

https://news.yahoo.com/lithium-rich-chi ... 51132.html

I was just thinking about this the other day after I heard the other company pulled out. Who set up that original deal to bring companies to Chile ? It is typical socialist interfering in Markets with feel good policies that ignore reality. Unfortunately NZ is about to go through what Chile did 2013 to 17.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by fraggle092 » Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:34 pm

I went back and looked at that claim from La Tercera:

Una cifra no muy halagüeña mostraron las exportaciones en junio, totalizando solo US$ 5.303,56 millones. La cifra supone un retroceso de 15,5% en doce meses y su registro más bajo desde abril de 2017 (US$ 5.048 millones).

But checking with Aduanas, the results I get are similar:

April '17 showed an unusually low value compared to the rest of that year.
The monthly comparison for June '18 Vs. June '19 did agree at around 16%, by my reckoning.

But the truth is that the stats vary widely from month to month, so this type of cherry-picking of data is quite misleading, although other sources do indicate a downward trend in Chile's financial position.

Anyone that's interested can find the figures here:
https://www.aduana.cl/aduana/site/docs/ ... o2017.xlsx
https://www.aduana.cl/aduana/site/docs/ ... o2018.xlsx
https://www.aduana.cl/aduana/site/docs/ ... 62019.xlsx

Not fake news, but not the whole story either, and certainly not justifying the headline in that article.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by admin » Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:30 am

41southchile wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:31 am
https://news.yahoo.com/lithium-rich-chi ... 51132.html

I was just thinking about this the other day after I heard the other company pulled out. Who set up that original deal to bring companies to Chile ? It is typical socialist interfering in Markets with feel good policies that ignore reality. Unfortunately NZ is about to go through what Chile did 2013 to 17.
yea i got a bit burned directly on that one. I took a small position in molymet when they were awarded one of three allotments of that lithium from corfo to build a battery plant. they just canceled the contract, because corfo could not pull their head out of their rear.

another half-baked, ideologically driven policy by bachelet. the little commies on the left were screeming "lithium for chile", and wanting codelco to take over the lithium industry. so bachelet came up with the worse of all possible worlds, to make it as hard as possible for anyone to mine lithium. who did they think was going to mine it? like it was just going to magically come out of the ground ready to use.

codelco has been sitting on some of the largest lithium rights in the world for decades, and for over 10 years has not been able to get their act together to mine it.

they awarded Abermal a consecession on lithium, then decided they were going to use that as leverage to punish Ponce (Pinochet's son in law) over at SQM with the personal grudges related to the dictatorship. Ponce ended up punking them anyway. not his first rodeo.

Meanwhile, it came out the socialist party had some 3 million dollars invested in SQM. money they got as reparation from the dictatorship. hummmmm.

It goes on and on. the level of stupidity and ignorance is mind blowing.

one of things that seems to be a theme in the bachelet administration was appointing new young lefties to positions, that had no clue or experience in buisness or economics. If they did, they would not be that far left. she shoved everyone that did have experience in her first administration in front of the bus. why would anyone with any reputation in the buisness world help her, if it was just going to destroy their careers? so she ended up with the B team (more like the Z team), making decisions that were way, way over their heads.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by 41southchile » Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:54 am

admin wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:30 am
41southchile wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:31 am
https://news.yahoo.com/lithium-rich-chi ... 51132.html

I was just thinking about this the other day after I heard the other company pulled out. Who set up that original deal to bring companies to Chile ? It is typical socialist interfering in Markets with feel good policies that ignore reality. Unfortunately NZ is about to go through what Chile did 2013 to 17.
yea i got a bit burned directly on that one. I took a small position in molymet when they were awarded one of three allotments of that lithium from corfo to build a battery plant. they just canceled the contract, because corfo could not pull their head out of their rear.

another half-baked, ideologically driven policy by bachelet. the little commies on the left were screeming "lithium for chile", and wanting codelco to take over the lithium industry. so bachelet came up with the worse of all possible worlds, to make it as hard as possible for anyone to mine lithium. who did they think was going to mine it? like it was just going to magically come out of the ground ready to use.

codelco has been sitting on some of the largest lithium rights in the world for decades, and for over 10 years has not been able to get their act together to mine it.

they awarded Abermal a consecession on lithium, then decided they were going to use that as leverage to punish Ponce (Pinochet's son in law) over at SQM with the personal grudges related to the dictatorship. Ponce ended up punking them anyway. not his first rodeo.

Meanwhile, it came out the socialist party had some 3 million dollars invested in SQM. money they got as reparation from the dictatorship. hummmmm.

It goes on and on. the level of stupidity and ignorance is mind blowing.

one of things that seems to be a theme in the bachelet administration was appointing new young lefties to positions, that had no clue or experience in buisness or economics. If they did, they would not be that far left. she shoved everyone that did have experience in her first administration in front of the bus. why would anyone with any reputation in the buisness world help her, if it was just going to destroy their careers? so she ended up with the B team (more like the Z team), making decisions that were way, way over their heads.
And another one bites the dust, the final battery maker that was supposed to set up shop in Chile drops out, I'm sure the govt and Corfo have a plan🙄
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/chinas-f ... 0725-00924
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by admin » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:40 am

i have the sneaky suspicion that pinera's team had a look at the mess that bachelet's people had put together, and decided to just go with it and let it implode under it's own half baked bullshit. it is probably why two big lithium miners have been dragging their feet to start their expanded operations.

shortly the administration will announce a new revised lithium program, and that bachelet's program failed.
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by 41southchile » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:32 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:40 am
i have the sneaky suspicion that pinera's team had a look at the mess that bachelet's people had put together, and decided to just go with it and let it implode under it's own half baked bullshit. it is probably why two big lithium miners have been dragging their feet to start their expanded operations.

shortly the administration will announce a new revised lithium program, and that bachelet's program failed.
Yeah I think that's what's happening already

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... Chile.html
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Re: Chile Wealth, Inequality, and International rankings

Post by admin » Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:25 pm

41southchile wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:32 pm
admin wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:40 am
i have the sneaky suspicion that pinera's team had a look at the mess that bachelet's people had put together, and decided to just go with it and let it implode under it's own half baked bullshit. it is probably why two big lithium miners have been dragging their feet to start their expanded operations.

shortly the administration will announce a new revised lithium program, and that bachelet's program failed.
Yeah I think that's what's happening already

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... Chile.html
:lol:

I was debating dropping my molymet stock this week, or just riding it out to see where this goes. good thing I have been too busy to give it any serious thought.

I have bigger positions in SQM anyway. Ponce might be a tool; but he is a tool that seems to always comes out ahead. I am sure SQM will end-up with more and cheaper lithium rights.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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