Argentine peso on the way to above 70

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:55 pm

Well beyond a rather impressive track record of argentinans behaving badly in chile, for us it is most the time way too high risk to take on argentinan clients relative the amount of revenue they might generate.

Especialy back when Kirchner was cracking down on argentinans taking money out of the country. Doing buisness with an argentinan in chile was almost by definition committing tax fraud or assisting with money laundering. At one point they had dogs on the boarder sniffing for dollars leaving argentina.

That is all before even trying to sort out ones that were legit vs. Those that are up to no good in chile. Just way too much hassle, for the pay.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:29 pm

Here is some closly related food for thought.

Why do you think argentinans love uruguy for stashing their money more than chile?

Uruguay's biggest industry is laundering the neighbors' money.

Chile on the other hand has put serious effort in to keeping money laundering out and not be seen as a tax haven (even if the taxes were less than the original country).
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:07 pm

Now with explosive strengthening of Dollars vs Argie Pesos. The expats living there in Dollars are seeing the hard facts that their transfers from the US to Argentina Banks, even transfers concluded they are not seeing their money in their accounts. Seems the Argie Banks are holding customers sent Dollars for further Pesos devaluation so they can make more money quickly...Catastrophe for the Argie living expats in the horizon..
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:36 pm

If anyone would like a preview of what is coming for argentina in the next year or so, here is the brazilian election:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-brazil

As with brazil, it will most likly be a far far right vs far far left election; and either extreme will be an economic disaster.

By the way, brazil lost its 200 year old national museum last night. Why? Because of budget cuts did not allow for sprinklers or even working fire hydrants outside.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:43 pm

Brazil shares a similar problem (well, among many) to argentina. Hard wired constitutional spending.

Argentina has the provinces spending it can not control. Brazil has around 90% of its budget it can not cut.

Imagine, say iowa, could take out debt in the name of the u.s. fed. Now imagine all 50 states did it.

I am working on my pet theory that modern capitalism is fundementaly incompatiable with modern democracy. Both suffer from terminal 'short-termism'; but, in opposit directions.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by FrankPintor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:28 pm

Interesting thread... I'm still in BA, I guess living through the crisis, though it doesn't behave like a city in meltdown, there are still cranes and construction sites everywhere. Things are certainly getting cheaper though, $35 for lunch for 3 at La Clothilde in Reocoleta at the weekend, about the same at a Peruvian restaurant for dinner a day before. Electronics are very expensive, annoyingly.

Anyone know if the big Chilean construction companies operate here? Socovesa apparently don't. Apparently if you bought an apartment in Belgrano 10 years ago it's worth 140% of that now. Crises notwithstanding.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:24 am

I dont think a 140% return is all that great over 10 years, but given the context probably pretty good. You could have gotten something like that in some chilean real estate, in the right place, without the associated risk.

Argies like to stash their money in real estate as protection from inflation. An argentinan friend (yea i do have a few of those) has been dumping all her money for years in to her property to protect it. She has been in perpetual staye of constructiin for a decade on her hotel. That was long before the current crisis.

In fact i read venezuela has a bit of a building boom going on, as constructiin was one of the few places to park large sums of money.

The one that really takes off durring these crisis in arg or brazil is construction in uraguey, as money from both run for cover in a safe haven. This time they got both going on.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by FrankPintor » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:35 pm

Well, this is the article about the 140% return (which I understand to mean the apartment is worth 2.4 times as much as it was 10 years ago, and rental income isn't mentioned):

"El que compró un departamento hace diez años en Belgrano hoy ganó en dólares un 140%"

https://www.clarin.com/arq/inmobiliario ... X3rP7.html

I don't know about Brazil, but when I went across to Colonia it looked very expensive there, I think pretty much everything that was available was bought up by Argentinians in the past few crises. You'd need strong nerves to invest in Venezuela, I'm thinking about getting another apartment there, prices are absolutely rock bottom (less desirable areas, but even so in gated and guarded condominiums outside of Caracas start around $3500), but it's not straightforward getting title.

Building here in Buenos Aires seems to be very inefficient, you see gangs of Paraguayans and Bolivians everywhere who do everything by hand and take forever to get anything finished, I'm not surprised your friend is in a constant state of reconstruction. Chilean construction companies seem to be much more efficient.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by HybridAmbassador » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:39 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:35 pm
Well, this is the article about the 140% return (which I understand to mean the apartment is worth 2.4 times as much as it was 10 years ago, and rental income isn't mentioned):

"El que compró un departamento hace diez años en Belgrano hoy ganó en dólares un 140%"

https://www.clarin.com/arq/inmobiliario ... X3rP7.html

I don't know about Brazil, but when I went across to Colonia it looked very expensive there, I think pretty much everything that was available was bought up by Argentinians in the past few crises. You'd need strong nerves to invest in Venezuela, I'm thinking about getting another apartment there, prices are absolutely rock bottom (less desirable areas, but even so in gated and guarded condominiums outside of Caracas start around $3500), but it's not straightforward getting title.

Building here in Buenos Aires seems to be very inefficient, you see gangs of Paraguayans and Bolivians everywhere who do everything by hand and take forever to get anything finished, I'm not surprised your friend is in a constant state of reconstruction. Chilean construction companies seem to be much more efficient.

Hey Frank long time no readin' from you, an Expat there in BA told me, with this devaluation going on pretty soon one to find a great property somewhat underpriced ?
So he says wait till next year and buy a property there..What do you think about my friend's advise?
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by HybridAmbassador » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:59 pm

Argentina in the 60's, https://youtu.be/YhTrmYzp4gE?t=38
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by FrankPintor » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:52 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:39 pm
Hey Frank long time no readin' from you, an Expat there in BA told me, with this devaluation going on pretty soon one to find a great property somewhat underpriced ?
So he says wait till next year and buy a property there..What do you think about my friend's advise?
I've been quietly enjoying the crisis over the last year or so here :-)

It seems that properties are priced in USD, which seems pretty unusual to me, and really I don't see the justification... what part of building a house or apartment is priced in USD? So if that's the case, then there won't be any great property bargains to be had.

Pricing real estate and property in USD is a great way to make sure any devaluation feeds straight into inflation, and as well as that, rental contracts are either in USD, or pesos with automatic 20% hikes every 6 months or so. Property prices in Chile are in CLP, prices in Colombia are in COP, etc, the market in Argentina is the odd one out it seems.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by Space Cat » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:44 pm

FrankPintor wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:52 pm
Property prices in Chile are in CLP
I always see them in UF which is not exactly CLP and was introduced because of the similar problems with inflation.

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