Argentine peso on the way to above 70

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frozen-north
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by frozen-north » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:57 pm

And long before people started using the UF, people used US dollars.

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:45 pm

frozen-north wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:57 pm
And long before people started using the UF, people used US dollars.
Tends to depend on the property in Chile. A lot of properties are listed in UF, by commercial companies such as developers. Also, just to simply not have to change your signs every few months. For example a housing development, that might take 5 or 10 years to sell all the houses.

Properties, with an expectation of quicker sale, will be listed in pesos. Really big properties, probably for simplicity, will sometimes be listed in dollars, but dollar listings are still pretty unusual.

The UF, as convoluted as it is, I do believe has a stabilizing effect on the Chilean economy. If I buy my property say for a million UF, I am pretty certain I can unload it later for at least a million UF (or more) in the future. Same with my mortgage, health insurance contract, mobile phone contract, etc.

It does tend to screw the little people, that are payed in pesos or have savings in pesos, but in recent years not by much due to the general stability of the peso.

Every few years there is some sort of debate about eliminating the UF, especially when there are long periods of low inflation and price stability; but, then things like Argentina or Venezuela happen, and everyone stops talking about eliminating the UF.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:56 pm

looks like S&P and moodies are talking about a Argentina downgrade, for whatever that is worth.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by frozen-north » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:03 pm

admin wrote:
And long before people started using the UF, people used US dollars.
Properties, with an expectation of quicker sale, will be listed in pesos. Really big properties, probably for simplicity, will sometimes be listed in dollars, but dollar listings are still pretty unusual.
My comment was not about what is being done now, but to indicate that years ago, before people started using the UF, pricing was done in US dollars.

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by KDnR » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:16 pm

A new base was build at the 37-39 area, move above 40 is about to happen. When daily price will close above 40, the price will shoot up to a higher level. I'm always amazed at how good these controlled collapses are executed. Does not mean I agree with this people and with what they are doing. Obviously, they are very good at what they do.

The most likely scenario is to push the price above 40 and stay there not letting it slide at least for a day. Then come up with some ugly news and imitate panic buying seconds after that "news". Support public opinion with a bunch of articles on the subject, blaming all on scared investors that decided to move out of the peso... Keep on pushing the price of the dollar higher until panic will happen. Sell part of the position they took recently into a buying panic frenzy and stopped out currency traders. Set the new floor and not let it slide below that.

Let's watch this circus called a free market.
(I am not against a free market but it is not free for a long time already. It is controlled to the levels that most people can't comprehend)

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by nwdiver » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:15 pm

KDnR wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:16 pm
A new base was build at the 37-39 area, move above 40 is about to happen. When daily price will close above 40, the price will shoot up to a higher level. I'm always amazed at how good these controlled collapses are executed. Does not mean I agree with this people and with what they are doing. Obviously, they are very good at what they do.

The most likely scenario is to push the price above 40 and stay there not letting it slide at least for a day. Then come up with some ugly news and imitate panic buying seconds after that "news". Support public opinion with a bunch of articles on the subject, blaming all on scared investors that decided to move out of the peso... Keep on pushing the price of the dollar higher until panic will happen. Sell part of the position they took recently into a buying panic frenzy and stopped out currency traders. Set the new floor and not let it slide below that.

Let's watch this circus called a free market.
(I am not against a free market but it is not free for a long time already. It is controlled to the levels that most people can't comprehend)
I don't know a currency trader that would touch the Argie Peso, no liquidity........now the CD to the CP has gone from 485 to 530 over the last 6 months, that is something I was in.........great liquidity.....
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm

Yea their was a big, big currency trader interviewed on bloomberg last week that was shocked by the lack of liquidity in the arg peso market. He said they did a little 10 million dollar trade, and moved the entire market to their price.

For what is allegedly the second largest economy in south america, that is not a lot of money.

I am afraid the 39 / 40 peso official rate is really some sort of gov propaganda number. If there is no liquidity in the market, then the peso is somewhere between dead to worthless right now.

Think about this however. If what that trader said is true, then why does a 500 million dollar intervention in the market by the central bank hardly move the needle?

I suspect the argentinan shuffle is alive and well, and that 500 million dollars, and the rest of the imf money, is just going in someone's pocket.

The last president was caught shorting the peso, while crashing the economy.

Thus, nothing new in argentina.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by nwdiver » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:24 pm

You can't short without a buyer ;)
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by admin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:23 am

nwdiver wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:24 pm
You can't short without a buyer ;)
He, he, true.

But if your friends or family with the guys making the decisions to inject 500 million on a tuesday afternoon or when ever, and want to sell your pesos, you can front run that central bank bounce. Essentialy nutrializing its long-term effect.

Kristiana went out and also bought up properties and other assets, including forcing people to sell to her.
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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by KDnR » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:39 pm

[/quote]

I don't know a currency trader that would touch the Argie Peso, no liquidity...
[/quote]

nwdiver, you would be amazed how many traders make all kind of bets on anything that start moving sharply. And in any directions...
Any sharp move in one direction in most cases will have a pullback and it is a very easy way to collect some profit for a technical trader if he knows what he is doing of course :).
Some always will get caught, unfortunately.
Low liquidity scares away many traders but trades still happening.

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by KDnR » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:49 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm
If there is no liquidity in the market, then the peso is somewhere between dead to worthless right now.

Thus, nothing new in argentina.
Admin, you are right, the peso is somewhere between dead to worthless. And nothing new about that in Argentina. :)

People first have to experience the denial stage, the hope stage and so on, regular process. Big boys take time to play their games, maximizing their profit.

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Re: Argentine peso on the way to above 70

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:32 pm

KDnR wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:49 pm
admin wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm
If there is no liquidity in the market, then the peso is somewhere between dead to worthless right now.

Thus, nothing new in argentina.
Admin, you are right, the peso is somewhere between dead to worthless. And nothing new about that in Argentina. :)

People first have to experience the denial stage, the hope stage and so on, regular process. Big boys take time to play their games, maximizing their profit.
Well, the last time in the Kirchner's administration, one particular voucher fund made a handsome profit.! the $27 billion hedge fund founded by Paul E. Singer the most astute of all vulture fund that bought Argentine bonds from its liquidating investors for mere few cents to a Dollar, ransacked handsome billions when settled with the current administration.

How one hedge fund made $2 billion from Argentina’s economic collapse..NEW YORK –When Paul Singer’s Elliott Capital launched a 15-year battle to wrestle billions out of Argentina for lapsed debt payments, it wasn’t the first time the hedge fund had taken on a foreign government.

But few engagements have turned into such a high-profile international scuffle.

In order to collect the decade-old debt, Singer’s fund tried to claim money deposited by the country’s central bank in the U.S. and Europe. And it sought to seize two satellite launch contracts between Argentina and SpaceX.

Elliott Capital’s arguably most audacious scheme came in 2012, when the Argentine navy’s proud three-masted tall ship pulled into the port of Tema in Ghana with more than 250 crew members on board, recent graduates of the Escuela Naval de Argentina participating in an annual training session. The Libertad was worth a fraction of what the hedge fund claimed that it was owed, but the 100-meter ship quickly became a chip in an international fight over billions in old debt. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/bus ... 54a7fe4179
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