The trade wars, they have begun

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:35 pm

chump is talking about withdrawing from the WTO.

Yea, that will be good.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:16 am

Well there you go. 36 billion against china, now lets see if the other shoe drops.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:36 am

I am sure this will all majicaly go away by the end of the november elections in the states, but it will probably be too late.

We have confluencia of facyors for the perfect economic storm.

Qe coming to an end, with fed interest rate rise. All the companies and countries with way too much debt will get slammed with higher interest rstes and stringer dollar, just as the uncertanty of the trade war hits their income making it even harder to pay back that more expensive debt. Throw on some higher fuel prices and a few other things, and look out below.

We get to see which emperors are really wearing no clothes.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:43 am

The only way i see this whole mess not turning in to a major global disaster is for the u.s. to take the hit.

Essentially some sort of stagflation in the states seriously weakening the dollar. Basically the trade war could become an fx war, and long as the dollar looses, the rest of distortions can be absorbed.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:17 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:43 am
The only way i see this whole mess not turning in to a major global disaster is for the u.s. to take the hit.

Essentially some sort of stagflation in the states seriously weakening the dollar. Basically the trade war could become an fx war, and long as the dollar looses, the rest of distortions can be absorbed.
The problem with this is many commodities such as steel are sold world wide in the USD so if it goes down, the say CD goes up the Canadain steel producers lose on top of the 25% tariff........
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:27 pm

Yea i have been thinking about that too recently. There is a lot of trade, in fact most trade, is done in dollars but has nothing to do with the u.s.; which leaves Trump to take the hit. In other words, there is no good end to this.

So we are left with who has the bigger boot on their population and economy. China has more practice, or at least more efficient mechanism, to just order their people to shutup and suck it up. The u.s., ironically, would probably need to resort to more extreme measures to have the same effect.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:05 am

admin wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:27 pm
Yea i have been thinking about that too recently. There is a lot of trade, in fact most trade, is done in dollars but has nothing to do with the u.s.; which leaves Trump to take the hit. In other words, there is no good end to this.
Quite a bit of oil is now traded in golden yuan, and they're about to start metals trading in Shanghai and London in yuan as well. Russia-China are switching to their currencies, Iran is switching to Euros and barter, Russia-India are also switching to barter, 10% of Chile-China trade is done in peso/yuan, etc. etc. The trillions upon trillions sitting in derivatives on someone's books will obviously have to go puff sometime soon, but they're purely financial assets, numbers on a computer screen.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:19 pm

The similarity of corporate profit charts and bitcoin pre Jan 16th is uncanny.

https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:32 pm

Read a piece in, can't remember maybe a British paper that the biggest market for new crypto currencies is bit coin holders getting out........
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by AnciaVagar » Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:44 pm

Too bad these countries will never sit down and negotiate new trade agreements.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:27 pm

Things that happen in Silicon Valley and also the Soviet Union:
- living five adults to a two room apartment
- being told you are constructing utopia while the system crumbles around you
- waiting years to receive a car you ordered, to find that it's of poor workmanship and quality
- promises of colonizing the solar system while you toil in drudgery day in, day out
- 'totally not illegal taxi' taxis by private citizens moonlighting to make ends meet
- everything slaved to the needs of the military-industrial complex
- mandatory workplace political education
- productivity largely falsified to satisfy appearance of sponsoring elites
- deviation from mainstream narrative carries heavy social and political consequences
- networked computers exist but they're really bad
- Henry Kissinger visits sometimes for some reason
- elite power struggles result in massive collateral damage, sometimes purges
- failures are bizarrely upheld as triumphs
- otherwise extremely intelligent people just turning the crank because it's the only way to get ahead
- the plight of the working class is discussed mainly by people who do no work
- the United States as a whole is depicted as evil by default
- the currency most people are talking about is fake and worthless
- the economy is centrally planned, using opaque algorithms not fully understood by their users
https://twitter.com/atroyn/status/1014974099930714115

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:51 pm

Here great article on the sort of damage the chinese can inflict on the u.s. economy via the chinese consumers:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/arti ... e-consumer
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