The trade wars, they have begun

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at46
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:30 pm

HybridAmbassador wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:17 pm
Luckily for Trumpf, US economy still going strong
I kinda feel US propaganda is about the only thing that's still going strong over there. Shadowstats.com gives US inflation at 6% and unemployment at 21.5%.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:17 pm

Yeah but the stock market is rallying high everyday! And all money in the developing countries, is making its way back to US financial sector so to speak.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:21 pm

This a tail of three kids. Myself, a 20 something millenial, and one that was born way before both of us.

For a very brief moment last week, i was questioning my 30+ year investment thesis, that i have followed in one form or another: short the UNITED STATES.

It has paid off well for me over the years. Got a million reasons why I do it and why it works, but mostly comes down, in total sum, the united states has been consistently wrong. Just wrong. They have been doing the wrong things, for the wrong reasons, for a very long time; and, i see no signs they are going to start doing the right thing anytime soon. Even if they did, they have been doing the wrong things for so long, they are not going to fix the things they have done wrong in my life time.

But, I was getting sucked in to the fantasy island cry of "the fed, the fed, the fed".

And everything that is typically associated with the fed doing what the fed does. Strong dollar. Weak emerging markets. Bla, bla, bla, and more bla bla.

Then as i am watching bloomberg, they are interviewing this kid. Perhaps 24 or 25 year-old milennial, running some new fangled hedge fund with a gazzilan dollars under manegment, and a realy spiffy new suit.

He is spouting off about how the market is going to do x, y, and z because that is what it has done for over 8 whole years, and thus investors should do A,B, C because investors have made money doing it for 8 whole years.

I chuckled to myself and thought, "that kid was in frigen high-school or juinor high durring the (last) financial implosion".

In fact, that is a well known fact that most the people now working on wall street were not even out of high school back in 2008. Never mind 1987, 90s, .com bust, etc. Hell, i'm so old i even vaguelly remember the 1970s / 80s inflation mess. It was a classic, everyone and their dog is frigen genious when the market is going up.

Then, just as I thought the kid could not get any stupider, he starts tossing out really famious (to the point they are cliches) quotes, and atributing them to the wrong people, to argue that now was the time to invest in the u.s. market.

Who said, "invest when there is blood in the street"?

The kid seems to think it was warren buffet. Sure buffet got a chuckle out of that. Ill let everyone that does not know google that.

I wonder if he knows about the other famious quote / alegory, about another young kid on wall street, and if he can correctly atribute it to its famious source.


http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fo ... /index.htm

Irony is, that other kid with the shoe shine box was wrong, in large part, exactly because someone started a protectionist trade war.

I dont think i want to find out if this new kid, on the same wall street block, is right.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:11 pm

Suprise, suprise.

Trump is running the global economy just like his real estate biz: in to the ground.

Lets see how long he last now that he is hitting global economic powers that be in the pocketbook.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:45 am

The apex American company Harley Davidson announced the opening of a plant in Europe to build motor bikes for the EU market, they are laying off in the US and hiring in Europe........tariffs made exporting too expensive so they moved to the market, mister Trump it's called business, something you don't know much about........
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:36 am

Interesting article: how trumps trade war could cause a great depression.

http://warisboring.com/54284-2/

That is a geo political / military blog, so the ovetall article is sort of historical / strategic theme that is covered by a billion other articles and not a particularly great rehash of the subject.

What is interesting is this:
A recent report by Andy Stoeckel and Warwick McKibbin for the Brookings Institution analyzed just such a future trade war scenario and found that, if global tariffs were to rise just 10 percent, the gross national product of most countries would fall by between one and 4.5 percent — the U.S. GDP by 1.3 percent, China’s by 4.3 percent. A 40-percent rise in tariffs would ensure a deep global recession or depression.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:42 am

Here is the original report:
https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/public ... ic-program

I have not had time to read it yet.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:48 am

Here is the thing. Even if trumps basic claim is true, and other countries are taking advantage of the u.s., i see no way in which what he is doing does not cause more damage to u.s. and the world than the current situation.

It is like a fly landed on your soup in a restaurant. Rather than calling over the waiter and politly asking for another bowl of soup, you instead nuke the entire city and every fly in it to make sure a fly never lands in your soup again.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:58 am

Well, i do have to say that how this ends is pretty obviously not good; but, on the other hand the "not good" is so obvious i am battening down the hatches, getting liquid and building a war chest, and waiting for something like a bottom (hopefully there is a bottom).

Someone once said, opertunity without liquidity, is not an opertunity.

This is not so much a black swan, as a brightly colored neon swan with smoke trails, flashing lights, and a blonde come over.

Unusual, but easy to spot.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:22 am

Here is an interesting article on currencies flows. The chart at the end puts thing in context a bit.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/mercados/mer ... 13853.html
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:32 am

Here is the article that goes with that report.

I had this idea that in the long-run this whole mess would be good for emerging markets, that were otherwise in good shape. Well these guys seem to spell out the mechanism by wich foreign investors dump u.s. debt, and then put it to work in other countries.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/how- ... trade-war/
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by frozen-north » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:03 am

nwdiver wrote:
The apex American company Harley Davidson announced the opening of a plant in Europe to build motor bikes for the EU market, they are laying off in the US and hiring in Europe..
admin wrote:
Here is the thing. Even if trumps basic claim is true, and other countries are taking advantage of the u.s.,...
Europe is taking advantage of the US.

So. if Caterpillar were to close its Canadian plant and move it to the US, Canadians could claim that the US is taking advantage of Canada?

Caterpillar closes plant because of economics, not unions

Unions aren’t to blame for the Caterpillar plant closure—they’re collateral damage.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/busines ... ot-unions/

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