The trade wars, they have begun

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nwdiver
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:30 pm

Yeh, the econdudes are stuck in the 70s when Chile had 75-80% of gdp in copper, tourism is giving copper a run these days and agriculture surpassed it years ago......you gotta eat something.....
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:35 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 pm
copper is only like 20% of the gdp now.

when copper dropped last time, miners started focusing on other things like gold.

chile has been through plenty of low copper price markets, and why there is an economic stabilization fund, which the morons seem to neglect to count when checking if chile has sufficient money to pay the bills going forward. chile has plenty of levers to pull economicaly.

the big one chile has to pull is energy. chile could be 100% self-sufficient for energy in 5 to 10 years if it put the renewable energy program on steriods. without the baggage related with importing gas and oil, the trade balance would look very diffrent, and chile should be the renewable energy king. eletric cars only in santiago, wind, solar hydro across the country, and serious lithium battery industry.

chile has the three things that the eletric vehicals need. copper, lithium, and cobalt.
I can see a time when every house in the 5th region has 3-5kw of solar that is grid tied to use and help the commercial buildings during the day.........BUT.....they would need Patagonian dams to get through the night and in winter......the dams are the backup batteries not the complexity of home storage, which I know lots about, the good and bad.........
It's all about the wine.

mem
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by mem » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:55 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 pm
copper is only like 20% of the gdp now.

when copper dropped last time, miners started focusing on other things like gold.

chile has been through plenty of low copper price markets, and why there is an economic stabilization fund, which the morons seem to neglect to count when checking if chile has sufficient money to pay the bills going forward. chile has plenty of levers to pull economicaly.

the big one chile has to pull is energy. chile could be 100% self-sufficient for energy in 5 to 10 years if it put the renewable energy program on steriods. without the baggage related with importing gas and oil, the trade balance would look very diffrent, and chile should be the renewable energy king. eletric cars only in santiago, wind, solar hydro across the country, and serious lithium battery industry.

chile has the three things that the eletric vehicals need. copper, lithium, and cobalt.
I think what is scary to some of the pundits, is that sales of copper exports apparently accounts for at least 50% of all export sales in Chile. That is as of August 2018

https://tradingeconomics.com/chile/exports

at46
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:54 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 pm
eletric cars only in santiago
Electric public transportation - trams, trolley-buses, maybe electric buses of all sizes - and making car ownership insanely expensive, that's what's doable now and should be done.

Alternatively, I should just stop examining the contents of my vacuum cleaner bag.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:23 am

nwdiver wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:35 pm
admin wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 pm
copper is only like 20% of the gdp now.

when copper dropped last time, miners started focusing on other things like gold.

chile has been through plenty of low copper price markets, and why there is an economic stabilization fund, which the morons seem to neglect to count when checking if chile has sufficient money to pay the bills going forward. chile has plenty of levers to pull economicaly.

the big one chile has to pull is energy. chile could be 100% self-sufficient for energy in 5 to 10 years if it put the renewable energy program on steriods. without the baggage related with importing gas and oil, the trade balance would look very diffrent, and chile should be the renewable energy king. eletric cars only in santiago, wind, solar hydro across the country, and serious lithium battery industry.

chile has the three things that the eletric vehicals need. copper, lithium, and cobalt.
I can see a time when every house in the 5th region has 3-5kw of solar that is grid tied to use and help the commercial buildings during the day.........BUT.....they would need Patagonian dams to get through the night and in winter......the dams are the backup batteries not the complexity of home storage, which I know lots about, the good and bad.........
there are plenty of solutions for that. chile has wind. pass through hydro. many other options. even just getting down to where natgas fired power plants are filling in the gaps. the big lithium batteries are coming along also. the tech is there, chile is making progress, it just needs a serious push.

as for moving chileans to eletric cars, cars are already so expensive in chile, they could get their by eliminating the iva and other taxes on ev vehicals. that is a bigger tax break than china was providing.

the good thing about chile is that more or less all the country is within 200 km of route 5. well within range of most ev cars now. hot wire the copecs with charging stations. the patagonia will probably be gas for a while, but vast majority of people live within a couple hundred km of rout 5. in fact i bet something like 80% of the country is less than 50 km from route 5.

getting down to a few thousand gas vehicals in remote areas is more than acceptiable compromise.
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at46
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by at46 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:17 pm

A more realistic, cheaper and easier alternative to electric vehicles would be natural gas vehicles. A large segment of the existing fleet can be converted at relatively low cost, and they have no issues with EV battery recycling.

But equally important in terms of improving air quality in Santiago would be draconian enforcement of no wood burning for home heat, and dust suppression, i.e. a fleet of road/sidewalk cleaning machines that use water.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:56 pm

So did Mr Trumpf imposed the whoppingly huge US$200 Billion Dollars tariff on top of already levied US$60 billion? If that happened, it will equal 50% of all imports from China last year. Oh and if Xi Jinpin wants to retaliate doing the same to US export, Trumpster says he will bring total tariff to more than US$500 Billion Dollars! How long can China endure its punishment? Hearing stocks there going in spiral to the tune of minus 15%~20% already...Trumpster is vociferating, we will win this war, America's stocks at all time high and economy as no tomorrow. Rejoice America, the EU is eyeing it with cool view...And Germany finishing its NG pipeline into its first point Germany. But then the Ukraine balking off loudly, if and when the pipeline starts pumping NG flow, the Ukraine will be hanged dry, no more passage fee to the existing pipeline...
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:08 pm

inspite of the media spin, here is the real translation

trump put 260 billion of new taxes on products and components to products, for the most part, americans can not live without.

xi, put 60 billion of taxes on products that most chinese either can not afford, can live without, or dont even like. much of what the u.s. sells to china are not essential to chinese. do you think most chinese can tell the diffrence between a bottle of california wine vs. chilean wine? or an american soy bean vs. a brazilian soy bean? how about bmw's made in german vs. the u.s.?

good luck with that trump.

chinese are just start shipping products in to 3rd countries, slap a made in where ever sticker on it, and continue on as normal.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:49 am

so china is dropping tarrifs on everyone, but the u.s.

now even american companies will be motivated to move out of the u.s. to eother china or third countries to get the lower tarrifs selling in to china. kiss those trump jobs good bye (dont think there was any anyway, but pat yourself on the back trump while you can).
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:24 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:49 am
so china is dropping tarrifs on everyone, but the u.s.

now even american companies will be motivated to move out of the u.s. to eother china or third countries to get the lower tarrifs selling in to china. kiss those trump jobs good bye (dont think there was any anyway, but pat yourself on the back trump while you can).

No PRC is apparently dropping tariff to all imports, = Including the ones from the USA as well...They want to portrait themselves as the "good guy" to the rest of the world..
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:41 am

i found this interesting.

the u.s. will pass 1 trillion dollars debt per year, LAST YEAR!!!

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ ... idden-debt

not catching that falling knife.

but, can the u.s. stop or reverse it?

well, if it cuts off trade and closes up, recovery from the next crisis may not be as swift or complete, if you want to call the post-2008 a recovery.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ ... y-immunity

what is interesting about the above article is how much chile has seemed to follow that formula of increasing international trade, and trade sofistication in those agreements (depth, not just breath of trade agreements) now at over 26 trade agreements, and has bounced back from crisis faster than most countries in the world.

Argentina, with basicaly only the broken mercosur agreement, and brazil with not much more, have basicaly never recovered fully. read somewhere the global average is 5 trade agreements.

i think there is protection from both international but also domestic crisis. in 2010, we had people calling us wanting to invest in chile or do biz in chile within days of the earthquake, as soon our phones started working. 2008, was one of the biggest booms for chile we have ever seen. the global financial crisis lit a fire under everyone to ramp up biz to offset the effects, and chile was open for biz (well, after everyone sobered up from the sept 18th holiday a couple weeks later).

even bachelet's nuckleheaded attempts at crippling the chilean economy, were quickly reversed; and the foreign investment money almost instantly started flowing in again. It was like hitting yourself on the head with a hammer; it feels so good when it stops.

point is chile's trade agreements are getting more valuable, in a world where many countries are actively breaking down trade relationships. in fact a better armchair economist could probably put a dollar / euro / rmb whatever value on that increase due trade tension elsewhere in the world.

In short, more trade for us. Thanks Trump!
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:59 pm

Well here in Vancouver saw my first marked up bottle of US whiskey, up 45% the store said they are dropping most products as nobody will buy them and the agencies importing won't bring them into Canada.......
It's all about the wine.

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