The trade wars, they have begun

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HybridAmbassador
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:30 pm

at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:17 pm
HybridAmbassador wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:35 pm
at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:02 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:00 am
Come on? Ford and gm should have been put down 2008 (at least gm). They have been producing crap for decades, and living on their reputation from their 1950's /60's glory days, back when almost no one else had a auto industry to compete.

Ford has all the signs of a company in trouble with the desperate moves they have been making recently like selling off their south america division, ending production of sedans, etc.
Ford still sells almost double the number of trucks than all the Japanese companies combined. https://www.statista.com/statistics/204 ... ober-2011/
But I agree that's a waste of materials and effort.

Since the car business is inextricable from the oil politics, and the oil politics are inextricable from the petrodollar based financial system, you kinda have to start fixing things in New York and Houston before knocking down Detroit.
Ha,ha,haa. Ford F150 truck may outsell the Toyotas but if I'm to put my hard earned, er, saved Dollars in which company should I park my money?

Why Toyota Is More Valuable Than GM, Ford & Honda Combined -- Part 1

Toyota Motor has a greater market capitalization than that of General Motors , Ford and Honda combined. While this might appear striking, this is true primarily because of Toyota’s cash rich position. On comparing the enterprise value of the automakers, one sees that Toyota’s EV stands at just over $100 billion, which is about $30 billion higher than its next biggest competitor. In this two part article series, we try to explain this fact by looking at the average transaction price per unit sold commanded by each company and the operating margins for each company. Both of these angles reveal a lot about the recent performance of these companies and the directions in which they’re heading.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... db7af96ae7
What baffles me is why Toyota, with all its money and technical knowledge, can't come up with a really desirable truck for North Americans. It is their biggest market after all.

But then I remember the words of one of Toyota's top executives who said Toyota is not really a car company, it's a transportation solutions company. So they're not even looking to stir my emotions and make my eyes shine. All they want is my money.

In which case I'll pay them back with their own coin - indifference - and a hundred different reasons to poop on their entire boring line-up.
Bwahaha, in another topic you mentioned the superiority of Toyotas and German cars there in Canada that deserves your Dollar?
What ever, when I feel driving thrill in need, I drive the Lexus line of Toyota brands...Oh what a feelin' to drive a Toyotaaaa ...

Oh just heard in the news, Ford stock valued to one notch above the " junk " status. Is there any Canadians there buying Ford stocks?
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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:15 pm

Updated through today the 30th.

Appears we are at a critical junction here for EM, they either make it bounce on Friday or there will be a lot of fear and dread over the weekend.

Screen Shot 2018-08-30 at 6.12.09 PM.jpg
Generally, just a SPAM KILLER. You are on your own in this forum. My personal mission here is done.

BUT when necessary, by way of ridicule and truth revelation we shalt do war.

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:19 pm

mem wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:16 am
at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:17 pm
HybridAmbassador wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:35 pm
at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:02 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:00 am
Come on? Ford and gm should have been put down 2008 (at least gm). They have been producing crap for decades, and living on their reputation from their 1950's /60's glory days, back when almost no one else had a auto industry to compete.

Ford has all the signs of a company in trouble with the desperate moves they have been making recently like selling off their south america division, ending production of sedans, etc.
Ford still sells almost double the number of trucks than all the Japanese companies combined. https://www.statista.com/statistics/204 ... ober-2011/
But I agree that's a waste of materials and effort.

Since the car business is inextricable from the oil politics, and the oil politics are inextricable from the petrodollar based financial system, you kinda have to start fixing things in New York and Houston before knocking down Detroit.
Ha,ha,haa. Ford F150 truck may outsell the Toyotas but if I'm to put my hard earned, er, saved Dollars in which company should I park my money?

Why Toyota Is More Valuable Than GM, Ford & Honda Combined -- Part 1

Toyota Motor has a greater market capitalization than that of General Motors , Ford and Honda combined. While this might appear striking, this is true primarily because of Toyota’s cash rich position. On comparing the enterprise value of the automakers, one sees that Toyota’s EV stands at just over $100 billion, which is about $30 billion higher than its next biggest competitor. In this two part article series, we try to explain this fact by looking at the average transaction price per unit sold commanded by each company and the operating margins for each company. Both of these angles reveal a lot about the recent performance of these companies and the directions in which they’re heading.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... db7af96ae7
What baffles me is why Toyota, with all its money and technical knowledge, can't come up with a really desirable truck for North Americans. It is their biggest market after all.

But then I remember the words of one of Toyota's top executives who said Toyota is not really a car company, it's a transportation solutions company. So they're not even looking to stir my emotions and make my eyes shine. All they want is my money.

In which case I'll pay them back with their own coin - indifference - and a hundred different reasons to poop on their entire boring line-up.
Well, I would say the desirable trucks for North America are either the Toyota Tundra or the Toyota Tacoma (hillux). In fact I know quite a few friends there that have such trucks and love them. The tundra for a big truck and the tacoma for a little truck

I dont think the problem is desirability. It is more or less a combination of stupidity and/or the illusion of loyalty to an "American brand". Results be darned! The same people that will buy a Ford Fiesta or Focus over a Honda civic, accord or toyota Corolla/camry while thinking they are keeping their US dollars in the US. So they buy inferior products but they have their principles, such as they are
If you look at the Ford and GM camp, month after month their relentless "buy mine & will give you more" drive campaign. They are offering 12%~15% discount from MSRP + giving thousand more in cash rebate to lure in the bargain hunters. Meaning their trucks are way over priced to start with.! It is unbelievable but reality is, with those whopping discount plus cash rebates, they still making money.. Figure that out.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:35 pm

at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:17 pm
HybridAmbassador wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:35 pm
at46 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:02 pm
admin wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:00 am
Come on? Ford and gm should have been put down 2008 (at least gm). They have been producing crap for decades, and living on their reputation from their 1950's /60's glory days, back when almost no one else had a auto industry to compete.

Ford has all the signs of a company in trouble with the desperate moves they have been making recently like selling off their south america division, ending production of sedans, etc.
Ford still sells almost double the number of trucks than all the Japanese companies combined. https://www.statista.com/statistics/204 ... ober-2011/
But I agree that's a waste of materials and effort.

Since the car business is inextricable from the oil politics, and the oil politics are inextricable from the petrodollar based financial system, you kinda have to start fixing things in New York and Houston before knocking down Detroit.
Ha,ha,haa. Ford F150 truck may outsell the Toyotas but if I'm to put my hard earned, er, saved Dollars in which company should I park my money?

Why Toyota Is More Valuable Than GM, Ford & Honda Combined -- Part 1

Toyota Motor has a greater market capitalization than that of General Motors , Ford and Honda combined. While this might appear striking, this is true primarily because of Toyota’s cash rich position. On comparing the enterprise value of the automakers, one sees that Toyota’s EV stands at just over $100 billion, which is about $30 billion higher than its next biggest competitor. In this two part article series, we try to explain this fact by looking at the average transaction price per unit sold commanded by each company and the operating margins for each company. Both of these angles reveal a lot about the recent performance of these companies and the directions in which they’re heading.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... db7af96ae7
What baffles me is why Toyota, with all its money and technical knowledge, can't come up with a really desirable truck for North Americans. It is their biggest market after all.

But then I remember the words of one of Toyota's top executives who said Toyota is not really a car company, it's a transportation solutions company. So they're not even looking to stir my emotions and make my eyes shine. All they want is my money.

In which case I'll pay them back with their own coin - indifference - and a hundred different reasons to poop on their entire boring line-up.
Now is no more a "transportation company" it is a "mobility company" title and naming changes with passing time. Toyota with its massive cash on hand spends in R&D in future mobility such as: Autonomous drive everything from road going to air personal crafts.

Just seen Tokyo's autonomous drive taxi ready to move all incoming tourist for the 2020 Olympics, 2 years ahead, with real passengers. Then there is this fad going on that seemingly everyone is or will be driving the Electric thingy called cars of future. But current Lithium Ion technology not enough to drive long distances in one charge.

Then here comes the Toyota's Monmouth cash horde to be spent in research and development for much advanced battery technology. The Toyota solid state battery! For a given dimension, 3~4 times the travel lengths than the Li Ion of today. Also, it doesn't take 6~8 hours charge to drive misery 300 or so miles, but only requiring 3~4 minutes charge time.!

That is where Toyota's money is being spent. Plus if anything else fails such as the electric cars, Toyota already has the Fuel cell technology ready.. Come on world, Toyota is ready to take on whomever challenging them, be it from Germany or from America. That is the mission of Toyota's new mobility company.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:44 pm

So i just seen another round of articles (all coming fast and ferious now) throwing chile in with all the the other basket cases the EM vulutures are hunting.

One claimed chile's debt was 66% of gdp, with of course no source sited.

First to be clear, the only sources i could find of any reputation, call chile debt at 24% of GDP at the end of 2017. The rest of this is just a reverse engineering exercise to see if the jp morons of the world are seeing something no one else in chile does, including the central bank.

So i set out to have a look, at how they could possibly get there. Using the central banks stability report.

Well, in short they cant.

If you add consumer debt at 47% plus goverment debt at 25%, you sort of get something like that number.

What these ass hats however trying to say is that chile owes that in dollars, like argentina is vulnerable because of the strong dollar and their pile of dollar debt.

However, looking at the goverment debt. Subtrack around 56 billion is peso denominated bonds, then find for the amount that is due in the next four years, i come up with something like 11 billion dollars, mas o menos, that is in foreign currency and due in the next 4 years. Only slightly more than half of that is in dollars (rest is mostly in euros), and 44% of the total debt of chile is due in over 10 years.

Because i am a crappy economist, lets double that 11 billion, justto deal with any rounding errors.

Chile needs to worry about 20 billion dollars in debt, if the dollar or fed has a meltup or down.

The consumer debt, even if that was the way you do debt evaluation for a country, is still NOT DOLLAR DEBT!

Unless all the chileans took that debt out on their credit cards while overseas, i am not aware of a whole lot of banks that lend to people in dollars in chile.

Keep trying guys.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:53 pm

Here is one of the articles claiming 66% of gdp:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stron ... 2018-08-23

Someone please try to get to that number in some real published stats.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:57 pm

This article kind of does a better job of unpacking the concer for chile, but still far from explained with data:
https://theprint.in/opinion/not-just-ar ... sk/110706/

Even they put the debt at some vague 20 to 50% of gdp.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:06 pm

Here is a nice comparison chart of national debts by percent of gdp.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/c ... ominal-gdp

Chile is not even in the ball park of high debt countries.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:31 am

Of all the EM b.s. right now going on, the real threat to chile in the short run is copper.

China - u.s. trade war translates to drop in copper prices. Copper price translates in to peso.

We are probably going to take a run above 700 pesos to the dollar.

Hopefully most of that is a knee jerk reaction to political b.s.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by mem » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:48 am

admin wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:06 pm
Here is a nice comparison chart of national debts by percent of gdp.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/c ... ominal-gdp

Chile is not even in the ball park of high debt countries.
Nice link. Curious how Venezuela seems to have some of the lowest percent debt to GDP, along with Russia, Estonia, Azerbaijan. Paraguay is pretty low too. I guess i would think the lower the debt % to gdp the healthier/more stable the nation is, but not sure what to make of these outliers

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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:07 am

The one thing i have been doing to keep this all in perspective is just about every single EM related chart (chile stocks, argentina, copper, etc.) Still has not come close to the 2015-16 lows when china screwed up its rmb adjustments and spooked the EM / commodities market.

At least from bargain hunting perspective, we are still not at the bargain basement prices.
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Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:10 am

mem wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:48 am
admin wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:06 pm
Here is a nice comparison chart of national debts by percent of gdp.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/c ... ominal-gdp

Chile is not even in the ball park of high debt countries.
Nice link. Curious how Venezuela seems to have some of the lowest percent debt to GDP, along with Russia, Estonia, Azerbaijan. Paraguay is pretty low too. I guess i would think the lower the debt % to gdp the healthier/more stable the nation is, but not sure what to make of these outliers
Yea venezuelas numbers will never make any sense considering how far gone they are. They quit reporting data i believe about 5 or 6 years ago, and then the numbers were cooked by the maduro regime to the point of being useless.
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