The trade wars, they have begun

Chile Investment, how to invest in Chile, what to watch out for when investing, economic issues, currency exchange in Chile, and more.
HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3690
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by HybridAmbassador » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:53 pm

Canada out of NAFTA? That is what Mr. Trumpf is saying. Saying US does not need to do business with Canada but the Canadian need the US badly ! That is really bad, Toyota has factory there and exports hundred of thousand vehicles into the US...We will see many factories closures there in Canada in near future soon?
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:46 pm

Ha, ha, guess i am not the only one.

The chilean economy minster just showed up on bloomberg TV in an interview to attack exactly the naritive that chile has a high debt to gdp being shoveled by the international media (including by bloomberg).

His big point was chile's net debt is only 4%, and gross debt is somewhere in the 20 to 30% range (i expect this to be higher also over the 24% reported at the end of 2017).

On top of which, chile has the economic stabilization fund to tap for emergencies.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:22 am

Well this is obviously a sign that chile is in economic trouble. Central bank raises estimate of chile pib to 4.5% growth this year.

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p ... 83329.html
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:01 pm

and like clock work, the news ticker on bloomberg is reporting that the conclusion from the central bank is that "growth is slowing" in Chile.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
Space Cat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 1175
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:20 pm
Location: Valdivia

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by Space Cat » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:09 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:01 pm
and like clock work, the news ticker on bloomberg is reporting that the conclusion from the central bank is that "growth is slowing" in Chile.
Bloomberg recently published "We May Be Facing a Textbook Emerging-Market Crisis" where Chile is lumped together with other EM countries just for being an EM itself.

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 7240
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:07 pm

Dammit to hell, Chile targeted by Fake News!!
Generally, just a SPAM KILLER. You are on your own in this forum. My personal mission here is done.

BUT when necessary, by way of ridicule and truth revelation we shalt do war.

--eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:26 pm

Hey, another fictional article on zh about a report from sogen claiming chile is at risk:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... currencies

Nowhere have i been able to find any documented evidence to support these numbers, and i would be very happy to give a read if anyone can find any official numbers from a reputiable source that even comes close to supporting this conclusion about chile's economy.

Strangly they leave out most of the rest of latin america.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
nwdiver
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 2889
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:45 pm
Location: Vancouver, BC and Chile where ever it's Summer
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by nwdiver » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:30 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:26 pm
Hey, another fictional article on zh about a report from sogen claiming chile is at risk:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... currencies

Nowhere have i been able to find any documented evidence to support these numbers, and i would be very happy to give a read if anyone can find any official numbers from a reputiable source that even comes close to supporting this conclusion about chile's economy.

Strangly they leave out most of the rest of latin america.
I think part of this upsurge in negativity about Chile is the fact, some traders are exposed to the Chilean Peso, not so with the neighbors currencies, they are not liquid enaugh to trade much so not many people have any exposure, now Brazilian industrials are taking a hit......
It's all about the wine.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:10 am

You know i have been nursing a similar pet theory about the media beatings by foreign brokers towards chile. Notice they all come out of major brokers. Almost never do you get an article from say some smaller anylist that does not work for a major bank.

Basicaly,

1) chile is a small country and economy, that can be pushed around. For example, hard to push the brazilian economy around with some articles. Similar to how penny stocks can be manipulated with a flood of articles about a small company.

2) chile's markets are far more liquid and open than most emerging markets for foriegn investors. Especially over the last few years as rules have been relaxed for foreign investors to particpate. Basically the laws of economic physics work in chile vs. Other Em markets. Up is up, down is down. Liquidity is good.

Now, as hard as they have tried, chile's markets have gotten away from them in recent years. The volumes have grown in the last couple of years, and domestic investors are in. Chilean companies are starting to delist their adrs in the states, and just trade in chile now that the volumes are there. Companies can reliably do bond and stock offerings that are over subscribed. The depth and breath has been improving.

So say you bought in to chile 3 years ago in dollars, like around 2015, and caught the good run from bachelets economic disaster, and now want to exit, a strong peso is not very helpful.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:50 am

well chump did it. 200 billion in tarrifs of 10% on sept 24th, rising to 25% on january 1st.


i am quickly coming to the comclusion this is going to be good for latin america.

1) before china, where was the united states factory and cheap labor?

latin america

2) if you need to shift global supply chains, where are the trade agreements, logistics, materials already established?

latin america

in fact i expect the chinese companies to also switch to countries that can act as proxies for them to continue supplying to the u.s. without the tarrifs.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 262
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by mem » Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:10 pm

Yeah I was reading an article that put Chile in with Turkey and 3 other countries as the highest risk group of 5 for EM fragility. Then it had Argentina in the second highest group. I just couldn't understand why chile was being seen as higher risk/fragility than Argentina. This study came out last year or so I think

Then I realised...its because of the percentage of dependence on copper that chile relies on. I understand that in principal, but to say that because of Chile's dependence on copper makes it more fragile to an economic collapse than Argentina seems incredibly myopic

I mean what is the worst case scenario? Let's say copper just nose dives for 7 straight years...no rebounds..say usd/clp goes to 900...is that really going to cause Chile to collapse like we see in terms of Venezuela/Argentina/Turkey?

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: The trade wars, they have begun

Post by admin » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 pm

copper is only like 20% of the gdp now.

when copper dropped last time, miners started focusing on other things like gold.

chile has been through plenty of low copper price markets, and why there is an economic stabilization fund, which the morons seem to neglect to count when checking if chile has sufficient money to pay the bills going forward. chile has plenty of levers to pull economicaly.

the big one chile has to pull is energy. chile could be 100% self-sufficient for energy in 5 to 10 years if it put the renewable energy program on steriods. without the baggage related with importing gas and oil, the trade balance would look very diffrent, and chile should be the renewable energy king. eletric cars only in santiago, wind, solar hydro across the country, and serious lithium battery industry.

chile has the three things that the eletric vehicals need. copper, lithium, and cobalt.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Post Reply