Chile's Place in Latin America

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:33 pm

i was thinking about it. i bet argentina's real deficit is north of a trillion dollars. infrastructure, pensions, education, etc.

which means, argentina has either decades of stable long-term growth coming to pay it off :lol: , or the mother of all defaults still in the works.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by HybridAmbassador » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:44 pm

Argentina what a fiasco country but admitted to be in the G20 with about $600 billion GDP along South Afrika which has mas o menos GDP. So Chile got to step up a gear or two in order to close in on Argentina. And to add, why isn't Poland listed in G20 when their GDP is better than the Argies, go figure?
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:10 pm

well, if my back of the napkin calculations are somewhere close to realty, chile's economy is as least as large as argentina (without a trillion dollars in debt).

my guestimate, with all the reasons and much more i listed in the below thread, is that chile's GDP is at least 3x bigger than reported.

in short, chile is the best deal on the planet, simply due to bad statistical practices by the goverment and private sector under reporting the value of assets.

i won't go over those again:

viewtopic.php?t=16758&start=36

however, chile's economy, wealth, and gdp is 3x times bigger than believed. that puts chile's REAL gdp at about 750 billion per year.


here is an investment tip: someday, someone, besides me, is going to correct for that mistake in the stats, and everyone is finaly going to wake-up and realize just how under valued chile is relative to other international standards. perhaps it will be the goverment. perhaps a credit rating agency. perhaps it will be the IMF, the U.N., the world bank, the OECD, etc. someone that the world listens to, will finaly do the math (literally) from the ground up.

when that happens, every asset in chile will also triple over night.

that magic number 3 cuts both ways. the peso should probably be closer to 200 - 300 pesos to the dollar.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:42 pm

Pinera's G20 speech in BA

Summary:

Opening - US/China, please stop fighting and let the copper price soar again. End the trade/tariff war!
Middle - Pinera gets rapid fire reporters question covering every hotbutton issue active in chile , except copper (yawn)
Closing - US/China, please come back to the table, the G20 is a good place to announce an end to the trade tariff war!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK5KGwt4Z14

Conclusion - It is all about the copper price.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Britkid » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:16 pm

Admin, that seems a bit over the top, you can't really think 200-300 is a fair value for the Peso, or that this could actually happen?

The opposite possibility also remains China stops growing = copper tanks = peso going in opposite direction.

Copper is still the king. Peso jumped a few days ago. I checked copper price and sure enough the usual similar jump in the copper price to explain.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm

mem wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:42 pm
Pinera's G20 speech in BA

Summary:

Opening - US/China, please stop fighting and let the copper price soar again. End the trade/tariff war!
Middle - Pinera gets rapid fire reporters question covering every hotbutton issue active in chile , except copper (yawn)
Closing - US/China, please come back to the table, the G20 is a good place to announce an end to the trade tariff war!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK5KGwt4Z14

Conclusion - It is all about the copper price.
A lot of positive comments about Pinera in the comments

"That is MY president"
"Pinera is the best president"
"The best president in latin america"
"I am so proud he is my president"
"What a great man Pinera is"

In some ways it is refreshing to see people actually happy with their president

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Space Cat » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:46 pm

mem wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm
In some ways it is refreshing to see people actually happy with their president
Oh yes, for all the "he's literally Trump" scaremongering from the left during the presidential race, he's actually not even truly right-wing and keeps showing his Christian Democratic roots with all the social programs and public projects.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:22 pm

Britkid wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:16 pm
Admin, that seems a bit over the top, you can't really think 200-300 is a fair value for the Peso, or that this could actually happen?

The opposite possibility also remains China stops growing = copper tanks = peso going in opposite direction.

Copper is still the king. Peso jumped a few days ago. I checked copper price and sure enough the usual similar jump in the copper price to explain.
3x GDP?
yes
Peso x 3
Perhaps, someday.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:25 pm

think the Last stat I seen had copper at 10% of chile's export.

Copper is not the King it use to be in Chile.

my point is chili's asset's are under valued.

all of them.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:52 pm

here is quick list off the top of my head of things that are way under valued in chile.

1. people. with better education system, chile's people would be way more productive. at least 3x as productive. get wonen and young people fully employed and the opertunities they need. that is 3x the productivity right there.

2. real estate. i have beat that horse too many times, but comes down to an ineffecient tax system. easily 3x the value of what is reported as "legal" value, most of it just in raw land.

3. mineral resources. chile has a lot more in the ground than just copper, and only now is starting to exploit lithium, cobalt, etc. at least 3x what is reported, but probably way more. never mind the gold and other goodies that no one has the time to dig out, because copper has been so easy.

4. farm land. chile has some of the most productive land in the world. just wait until the farm land in the northern hemisphere turns in to a big dust bowl. yes, chile has plenty of fresh water too, just they are only now getting around to using it correctly. not drilling for it, or not putting in pipes to move it, is not the same thing as not having it.

5. most of the top ten, if not 20 companies in chile have turned in to monster multinational companies / conglomerates over the last 10 years. no one has noticed. at least 3x times, if not more.

i think they (the big families that control them) like it that way. keeps their taxes down, and no bitchy activist hedge funds to deal with.

in fact that is realy my best explanation so far for why chile is under valued: the people that own it like it that way.

i'll work on some more.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Space Cat » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:06 pm

I just finished the "Los dueños de Chile" overview by CIPER.
Además, el estudio de los académicos de la Universidad de Chile revela que la participación del 1% más rico del país es de 30,5% del ingreso total. El 0,1% (la milésima parte) se lleva el 17,6%, y el 0,01% (la diezmilésima fracción de los chilenos) acapara el 10,1% del total.

La progresión de las cifras marea. El 1% más rico se lleva 43 veces más por persona que el 99% restante. Pero dentro de ese 1% la mayor tajada se la lleva solo el 0,1%, que gana 12 veces más que el restante 0,9%. Y a su vez, dentro de ese ya privilegiado 0,1%, los que en verdad dominan son los que pertenecen al 0,01%, que se llevan 8 veces más que los del restante 0,09%.

Dicho de otra manera, y a riesgo de producir vértigo a medida que subimos: el 0,1% más rico de la población tiene ingresos per cápita 214 veces superiores al 99,9% restante. Y el 0,01% más adinerado concentra ingresos por persona 1.122 veces superiores al 99,99% que le sigue, y que incluye a gran parte de lo que convencionalmente llamaríamos «clase alta».

Si consideramos que el tamaño medio del hogar chileno es de 3,28 personas, y que la población total (a falta de un censo actualizado, claro) se estima en 17.819.054, podemos calcular que ese 0,01% de la punta de la pirámide son poco más de 500 hogares (543, para ser exactos).

Son esos 543 hogares entonces, los que concentran cerca de la décima parte del total de los ingresos del país.
Yeah, a bit extreme for my taste. No idea what's the way out of this except for those folks becoming a bit more generous on their own to prevent the public unrest when the economy's growth will slow down in the future.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:13 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:25 pm
think the Last stat I seen had copper at 10% of chile's export.

Copper is not the King it use to be in Chile.

my point is chili's asset's are under valued.

all of them.
I am not sure how one can arrive at copper as only 10% of Chile's export. Maybe they are using a different metric to show a lower number (maybe by volume or "orders" or something?), but it seems to me what really matters is the percentage of Export Sales that Copper accounts for. Because that is the amount of money yielded from Exports regardless of any other characteristic of the exports

This has information as of Dec 2018 saying 50% of all export sales are still Copper.
Chile's economy relies heavily on exports of copper (50 percent of total sales) and the state owned firm CODELCO is the world's largest copper producer in the world. Manufactured products account for 38 percent of total exports and include chemicals and metals, machinery and equipment and processed food....Chile Exports - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.
Citation: https://tradingeconomics.com/chile/exports

What compounds the pain, is 28% of all export sales are to China, followed by 14% with the US.

Which explains why Pinera couldn't stop cheerleading the US and China to end the trade/tariff war at the G20, because Copper and Chile are collateral damage of their spat

I agree Chile has asset's that are under valued and given the right series of world events Chile could see prices rise in undervalued areas.

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