Chile's Place in Latin America

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:48 pm

Now, setting aside the problems with that article, the problem in latin america is the same as the problem everywhere: politicians like to be liked.

That really is not a uniquely Latin American problem. It is more of a problem that naturally comes out of a democracy operating alongside a capital market economy. What is possibly unique to many democracies in Latin America, is they are relatively direct democracies. You spend money on a group of people to put a smile on their face, that group of people directly votes you in to office (as apposed to say the States that connection between voters and goverment spending is way more stretched).

There was an article I seen go by, that the U.S. has dropped something like 5.8 trillion dollars directly on the war on terror since 2001. Talk about spending money badly.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:48 pm

I was just thinking about positives in Latin America today overall, as it is easy to get sucked in to that narrative of Latin America IS perpetual crisis. Again, with the exception of Venezuela (that will end too someday). Which even in that case it might be noted, the region has done a pretty good job so far of keeping that mess contained to its own little corner of South America.

Right now, probably for the first time since the Inca's or the Mayan empire were around, Latin America is war free. yea, there are some very bloody localized conflicts with criminal gangs and organization around, but there are no armies facing off on the boarders. There is no civil wars, with one group angling to overthrow the government in power.

Democracies, as imperfect as they are, and at times as manipulated as they are, are pretty much everywhere in Latin America today; and most are functioning for the most part, with various levels of success.

Yea, there are still socialist to right wing swings in the elections and politics of Latin America, but for the most part every government is elected.

Most every country does at least some sort of lip service to being free market economies, with varying levels of success.

Most of the problems in Latin America are localized, politically, self-inflicted wounds. Argentina for example is an economic mess, but it is hardly spilled over the boarder, beyond a lack of tourist spilling over the boarder.

Peru is making good progress. Colombia is doing good. Bolivia kind of seems like Evo is quickly wearing out his welcome. Ecuador seems to be turning the corner. If Brazil sorts out some reforms, that might come roaring back. Mexico is sort of muddling along, in spite of its issues with the violence. If there is cause for concern, it is in Central America. Which, like it has always been, sandwiched between two sets of political and economic forces to the North and South. Panama is in pretty good shape these days. The Caribbean, has always been a mixed bag.

Overall however, Latin America seems to be finally turning away from the 1918 socialist / communist dance. Ironically, probably more because that generation that thought it might be a good idea is dying out, and even the kids that still think Che shirts are cool, tend to be leaning towards a different sort of leftist ideas as they pine for the latest iphone.

I kind of like to look at Chile right now, and how far it has come in the last 40-50 years, as snapshot of what much of Latin America might look like in another 20 years or so.

It is the middle class stupid!!!

Latin America is quickly reaching escape velocity from the stupidity and poverty of the past, as a middle class forms that is taking root. They want what every middle class in the World wants. Stable economy. Stable jobs. Security. Ability to improve their kids lives, etc, etc.

I am sure there will be a lot of back and forth, ups and downs, along the way; but, Latin America is doing it.
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41southchile
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:51 pm

I heard an interesting piece on the radio driving today, talking about APEC and Piñeras trip there and as Chile prepares to hold it next year, that will mark 25 years since Chile joined, in that time Chile has tripled its per capita income and reduced poverty from 32 percent to 8 percent using the same measurements. Chile is doing it and doing it well, they need to keep up with infrastructure projects though, water storage being one area that needs addressing if Chile wants to keep growing its global trade.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:59 am

41southchile wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:51 pm
I heard an interesting piece on the radio driving today, talking about APEC and Piñeras trip there and as Chile prepares to hold it next year, that will mark 25 years since Chile joined, in that time Chile has tripled its per capita income and reduced poverty from 32 percent to 8 percent using the same measurements. Chile is doing it and doing it well, they need to keep up with infrastructure projects though, water storage being one area that needs addressing if Chile wants to keep growing its global trade.
chile does not have a lack of water. it has a lack of water in the right places, and that is mostly an issue of bad public policy and inefficent alllocation of water rights.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... is/400875/

the article above says 8% of the population does not have access to potable water, or about 1400000 people. which i think is closer to reality.

there was another one out recently that said it was much higher, like 20 or 30% of the population. which did not pass my back of the napkin test, as they had crazy high numbers for like los lagos region.

then i realized what was going on. according to the goverment way of counting potable water, i and my neighbors don't have potable water.

a few years ago, they passed a super stupid law that prohibited rursl water systems that did not have clorine systems, and a registered well, from being certified with health certificates. which also lead to rural, and not so rural developments, being denied building permits in a lot of counties.

the parcilation i live in has been here for 25 plus years, there is like 30 houses. i knew they did not have a registered well when i bought, because when it was originaly formed and sold, there was no such requiment. the water is fine. i have tested it. we have a deep 150 meter well.


finaly we are getting around to registering the well. the community had fumbled around for decade, and finaly my wife decided to take over. i am more interested in it for increasing property value than somehow we are going to run out of water.

but, according to the official stats, i dont have water. in fact my biggest problem is controling where all my water goes (lots of rain). i could take a shovel to my yard and dig a well in a day by myself (water table is less than 5-10 meters down). my neighbor dug a big hole in the ground with an excavator to get water for his cows. ii think it is only 3-4 meters deep. i am only like 30 to 50 meters above the water table of one of largest fresh water lakes in south america. i got plenty of water options.

but, if i dug something as simple as a hand dug well in my yard, never mind drilling a deep well, registered the water rights, i would magicaly be counted as having potable water in the gov statistics.

so this is a case of a well intentioned health law, drafted in santiago, waisting massive resources to solve a what is a none-problem in many parts of the country.

my 3 meter hand dug well would be acceptiable, but my 150 meter professionaly drilled well does not count.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:14 am

here is an article that makes the water crisis sound more like a crisis.

https://aldia24.com/2018/11/6342

67% they say are in rural areas, and 1 in 4 people in the 9th region do not have water. now the 9th region is poor, but i am almost certain it is the majority of the problem is the definitiin they are using. i can not recall running in to a whole lot of people in the 9th region over the years complaining about a lack of water.

also the stats are talking about access to bathrooms / septic systems, but again here is a case of the goverment definition creating a problem that does not exist. if you don't have a certified septic system, the goverment counts you as not having any. in reality the municipalities in most of the country have until recently never put an effort in to inspecting and certifying septic systems.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:44 am

here is an example of how this "crisis" tends to extend or domino in to causing other none-problems.

in our community, for nearly 10 years, no one had building permits. the former socialist mayor, for a variety of reasons, simply was not aproving them. i believe he was juicing the poverty stats, to get more money from the goverment. in fact that pretty much extended to the whole town. somwthing like 80% of the new construction had no building permits.

my wife and i go to buy a house. we call in the bank apraisers to get a mortgage.

the apraiser says the house is worth 180 million, but since it has no building permits, they will only issue a mortgage for 150 million.

we use that as leverage to negotiate the final terms with the seller. among other things, we tell him we want the permits cleared up. we find an aritech that will handle getting the permits aproved retroactively (socialist mayor was voted out of office). the seller agrees to pay for it. ran a million pesos total.

here is the kicker. i meet with architect, and an associate of hers on the property that is some sort of expert in septic and water issues. after about 15 mins of wondering around the property i realize these girls don't know shit about water systems and septic systems. growing up in the rural western u.s., i have probably seen more wells drilled than half the drillers in chile. hell i had friends growing up that had their own drill rigs. never mind septic and water systems installed of all kinds.

these girls could not find the septic system on the property, nor the water line connection to the community well. i took a 10 second glance around the property and pointed out where both were. i just want the building permits, i was planning to replace both systems lock, stock, and barrel anyway just for my own piece of mind. i realy don't want to deal with a septic problem, and by the time you try to upgrade one you could just as well put in a complete new one for a litle more money. same with the water system.

but, i have to hand it to those girls that could not find a septic system or a water line on their own, they got the permits aproved.

to this day, in this house that is like 15 years old, as far as i know, no goverment inspector has ever stepped foot on the property for any reason; yet, i have full building permits, a working septic system, and fine water coming out of my faucits (that taste a hell of lot better than the over chlorinated crap in town).

how does the chilean goverment know that i should be included or excluded from whatever the political loaded stat of the week is, that they are using to make long term policy decisions for my community, my town, and for the entire country?

but it is an example of the problem we are facing. it is mostly political beucratic, and to bring this full circle, self-inflicted wound. take that problem in chile, magnify it by a factor of a 100 or a 1000 across latin america. in many ways the greatest thing holding back latin america is the politicians and ineficent public institutions.

but i am becoming convinced that one of the realy major problems in chile, and latin america overall, is a real lack of accurate statistics and information about the scope of the problems. how do you efficiently allocate resources to solve problems, when you don't know what the problem is?
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:19 am

the sad thing is, there is no excuse for having inacurate statistics these days wity the level tech integration and data bases. the data, for the most part is already collected, in both public and private systems; but their is a shocking lack of proper use, or integration of those data sets by the goverment to realy make the most of the limited resources they have.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:39 am

here is an further example of how bad statistics lead to more bad stastics, in a sort of circular manner.

back when one time when they were conducting the sences, my wife and i happened to be at our office in town. kid that is collecting stats stops by, we get to talking to him about how it is going. we asked where he was going next. he just sort off handed mentions that he has a couple houses out in the sector of town where we live. we said, "you understand there is easily over a 1000 houses out there". his face went white. he thought he was done.

the sences department did not know there was anyone living there, because there were no official building permits filed for the entire area.

to add insult to injury, when they finaly did come around to the area, if they knocked on the door and found no one home, they just estimated that about 4 people lived there. the problem with that is, at the time, most of the houses were second vacation homes. they were double counting households in some cases, and under counting others.

how do you say what the real poverty or wealth levels are in a country, with stats like that? i have covered on the other thread the problems i see with the international wealth stats in chile, but this just an extension of those critisms. not even the chilean goverment knows what the poverty situation is in chile.

the tax authority still thinks i and most my neighbors are sleeping in an empty pastor with the cows, rather than living in houses. a quick glance at a google sat map would show the error.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:48 am

from that article, look at these stats:
agua-1024x373.jpg
does that make sense to anyone that knows los lagos, that there would be such a massive spike in people without septic or water?

that super rainy los lagos, has a bigger water problem than the people living in the driest dessert on earth?

hummmm, yea that did not jump out at the lazy desk jocky in santiago that compiled those stats as something might be wrong?

or that los rios region, between the 9th and 10th region, with a similar climate and rural populations, has such a low statistic?

'one of these things is not like the others. one of these things does not belong.' :lol: :roll:

hell i did not learn how to read those stats in grad school logic classes. i learned thst at 4 years old watching sesame street.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:00 am

admin wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:14 am
here is an article that makes the water crisis sound more like a crisis.

https://aldia24.com/2018/11/6342

67% they say are in rural areas, and 1 in 4 people in the 9th region do not have water. now the 9th region is poor, but i am almost certain it is the majority of the problem is the definitiin they are using. i can not recall running in to a whole lot of people in the 9th region over the years complaining about a lack of water.

also the stats are talking about access to bathrooms / septic systems, but again here is a case of the goverment definition creating a problem that does not exist. if you don't have a certified septic system, the goverment counts you as not having any. in reality the municipalities in most of the country have until recently never put an effort in to inspecting and certifying septic systems.
That is pretty interesting. The statistics make it sound far more bleak than the practical reality on the ground..even in region 9. It certainly is a lack of people caring or having the money/skill to install indoor plumbing, bathroom, etc. Yet even small houses that rent for 150k a month have proper indoor plumbing and septic/sewer.

I know there are people in region 9, even in or near small to midsize towns with no indoor plumbing or bathroom. Basically families that live in a makeshift house and just dig a pit and put some walls around it and a door on the front and call it a bathroom, totally unsanitary. Sometimes if they go to a church the church will organize a work crew to go and remove rotting materials from the house, build a proper bathroom, put in some basic plumbing pro bono. At least enough to make it far safer health wise for the family. Likely the family has little to no basic education to know how unsafe it is.
I have no idea what kind of monthly income these families have and I presume they somehow own the 500-1000meters squared that the shack is on so they stay there rather than rent a house for 150k a month with a proper kitchen, bathroom, etc. Perhaps that is all the income they have and so they spend it on food only and are paralyzed in place.
It just doesn't seem like the stats are accurate, but maybe I am underestimsting how many destitute families there are that live on almost nothing
I often see new apartments going up and they are this cookie cutter places, cramped, maybe 40-70m2, densely packed together. Looked at many of those and thought to myself, why are there so many of these cramped places? Are they just for summer rental? But now it makes a bit more sense. As small as they are they are major upgrades for the lower class in chile with proper plumbing and septic

41southchile
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:39 am

admin wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:59 am
41southchile wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:51 pm
I heard an interesting piece on the radio driving today, talking about APEC and Piñeras trip there and as Chile prepares to hold it next year, that will mark 25 years since Chile joined, in that time Chile has tripled its per capita income and reduced poverty from 32 percent to 8 percent using the same measurements. Chile is doing it and doing it well, they need to keep up with infrastructure projects though, water storage being one area that needs addressing if Chile wants to keep growing its global trade.
chile does not have a lack of water. it has a lack of water in the right places, and that is mostly an issue of bad public policy and inefficent alllocation of water rights.

https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia ... is/400875/

the article above says 8% of the population does not have access to potable water, or about 1400000 people. which i think is closer to reality.

there was another one out recently that said it was much higher, like 20 or 30% of the population. which did not pass my back of the napkin test, as they had crazy high numbers for like los lagos region.

then i realized what was going on. according to the goverment way of counting potable water, i and my neighbors don't have potable water.

a few years ago, they passed a super stupid law that prohibited rursl water systems that did not have clorine systems, and a registered well, from being certified with health certificates. which also lead to rural, and not so rural developments, being denied building permits in a lot of counties.

the parcilation i live in has been here for 25 plus years, there is like 30 houses. i knew they did not have a registered well when i bought, because when it was originaly formed and sold, there was no such requiment. the water is fine. i have tested it. we have a deep 150 meter well.


finaly we are getting around to registering the well. the community had fumbled around for decade, and finaly my wife decided to take over. i am more interested in it for increasing property value than somehow we are going to run out of water.

but, according to the official stats, i dont have water. in fact my biggest problem is controling where all my water goes (lots of rain). i could take a shovel to my yard and dig a well in a day by myself (water table is less than 5-10 meters down). my neighbor dug a big hole in the ground with an excavator to get water for his cows. ii think it is only 3-4 meters deep. i am only like 30 to 50 meters above the water table of one of largest fresh water lakes in south america. i got plenty of water options.

but, if i dug something as simple as a hand dug well in my yard, never mind drilling a deep well, registered the water rights, i would magicaly be counted as having potable water in the gov statistics.

so this is a case of a well intentioned health law, drafted in santiago, waisting massive resources to solve a what is a none-problem in many parts of the country.

my 3 meter hand dug well would be acceptiable, but my 150 meter professionaly drilled well does not count.
Yeah I was coming at it from water storage for agriculture and horticulture use, as well as distribution infrastructure that goes with that, ideally pipes rather than canals which are very inefficient and loose a lot of water. There us a lot of scope for more projects all the way down Chile from Santiago to Temuco, with reliable water supply there is a lot of potential to increase exports, although they probably need to be more water efficient before they start proposing new irrigation schemes, flood irrigation and open canals waste so much water.
As for domestic water and sanitation that's a whole other topic, one that has been completely screwed up, and needs a complete overhaul.
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

41southchile
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:04 am

admin wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:44 am


but i am becoming convinced that one of the realy major problems in chile, and latin america overall, is a real lack of accurate statistics and information about the scope of the problems. how do you efficiently allocate resources to solve problems, when you don't know what the problem is?
That's why you have a census isn't it? They couldn't even do that properly in 2012.
U actually think governments can efficiently allocate resources or solve problems?
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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