Chile's Place in Latin America

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nwdiver
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by nwdiver » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:15 pm

admin wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:12 pm
uruguay, often gets great ranking at the top of the various development indexs along side chile.

it is all an illusion. if argentina or brazil ever got a handle on their corruption, or uruguay ever cracked down on the money laundering, the economy would colapse.
Yeh, every sizeable real estate transaction for BA takes place over a steak on the water front in Montevideo......with bags of cash under the table and 2-3 plainclothes but obviously arms guards around.....once two deals where obviously happening and one group thought the other group were there to rips them off, we moved along.......
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:44 am

nwdiver wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:15 pm
admin wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:12 pm
uruguay, often gets great ranking at the top of the various development indexs along side chile.

it is all an illusion. if argentina or brazil ever got a handle on their corruption, or uruguay ever cracked down on the money laundering, the economy would colapse.
Yeh, every sizeable real estate transaction for BA takes place over a steak on the water front in Montevideo......with bags of cash under the table and 2-3 plainclothes but obviously arms guards around.....once two deals where obviously happening and one group thought the other group were there to rips them off, we moved along.......
my wife and i were in lima. we are having lunch on the patio of the hotel. next to us are three chinese buissmen, and a young argentinan. probably about 30 years old.

the argentinan is just spewing this line of shit to sell something to the chinese. the chinese looked pretty bored, like this was not their first rodeo; but they were politly listening.

my wife and i were having a good laugh at the argies expense under the table via text message. i sent a text to my wife, "we both know what this is".

then he made the big ameture hour mistake. he told the chinese that he was well connected and trusted by the chinese central goverrment. that they would send him millions a dollars without a problem. my wife and i both cringed at the same time when he said it.

even our friends in china that were super well connected and worked for the goverment (including a governor of a province), would run from anyone that said they were well connected to the central goverment in a buisness deal. if xi, the president of china, was sitting across the table, he probably would not want to hear that. probably the fastest way there is to end a buisness deal, and to never hear from a chinese national again.

argie gets up from the table to go to the bathroom. as soon as he was out of ear shot, the table just errupted in chinese. i dont speak much chinese, but i can sure tell when they are upset. it was the big eyed chinese, 'is he f$%&ken serious'? followed by, 'let's bail just in case he is".
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:34 am

that is the thing i dont think most foreigners get about how argentinan's operate. it is realy facinating to watch, once you put on your argentinan bullshit filter.

they will play this incrediable 'long game', and along the way to sucking you in, do little confidence or trust building moves. often those confidence building plays will have no apperent connection to money or buisness. they will do things to just build trust to put in the bank for later use, and sort of break down your resistence to reason or looking too hard at the big picture. they will even take a loss or otherwise hurt their own position (at least on the surface) to make themselves appear to be sympathic, as they are showing that they are in the same boat as you. what they are realy doing is building leverage.

i don't think they often even have some sort of master plan when they start. they will just build trust until an opertunity arrises to take advantage of their mark (and everyone is a mark).

chileans trying to scam a foreigner, will often get greedy and jump the gun. they will sort of grab what they can and run at the first opertunity. not the argentinans. it is why i question how chileans ever win at poker game. they realy suck at lying. the argentinans in contrast will sell you a lie, and to not give it away, convince themselves it is true.

once they got you conditioned to not question their motives, they will move in for the kill. only then do words like 'opertunity', 'investment', 'paternership', 'trust', etc creep in to the conversation. they will slowly shift the conversation to things that apeal to your own greed, and over ride your reason and better judgment. they will position themselves in a savior sort of position, or otherwise appear indispensable.

now, all over the world there are con artist; but, it comes super naturaly in argentinan culture in a way i dont think i have seen any other culture do it.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:52 pm

Well, Bolsonaro wins...
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:57 pm

not sure he is the cure for what is wrong with Brazil . the Guy pretty much did Nothing while in the senate.

then also, I guess having a big mouth these days is all that is Required to Be President of anything.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by tiagoabner » Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:21 am

Bolsonaro won due to him running against the PT guy in the second run: he would've list in all other scenarios. I'll post a more detailed breakdown later today, as well as some notes about his plans for regional politics.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:52 am

bolsonaro says his first international trip will be to chile. not sure chile should hook its international rep to that guy.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:38 am

Very interesting article in the economist over the weekend, a bit of the history of the economic reforms in Chile done under Pinochet in there too.

Brazil’s election

Jair Bolsonaro and the perversion of liberalism
The probable president is reviving Latin America’s unholy marriage between market economics and political authoritarianism

In july, at a convention of his small and inaptly named Social Liberal Party, Jair Bolsonaro unveiled his star hire. Paulo Guedes, a free-market economist from the University of Chicago, has done much to persuade Brazil’s business people that Mr Bolsonaro can be trusted with the country’s future, despite his insults to women, blacks and gays, his rhetorical fondness for dictatorship and the suddenness of his professed conversion to liberal economics. At the convention Mr Guedes praised Mr Bolsonaro as representing order and the preservation of life and property. His own entry into the campaign, he added, means “the union of order and progress”.

That prospect seems poised to make Mr Bolsonaro, a former army captain, Brazil’s president in a run-off election on October 28th. A survey by Ibope, a pollster, gives him around 52% of votes, to 37% for Fernando Haddad, his opponent from the left-wing Workers’ Party (pt); 9% of respondents said they would abstain. Mr Bolsonaro has benefited from a public mood of despair over rising crime, corruption and an economic slump caused by the mistakes of a previous pt government.

In the PowerPoint slideshow that passes for his manifesto, Mr Bolsonaro promises “a liberal democratic government”. Certainly Mr Guedes champions some liberal economic measures. He proposes to slim Brazil’s puffed-up, ineffective and near-bankrupt state through privatisations and public-spending cuts, and to undo the country’s serpentine red tape.

Yet Mr Bolsonaro’s words are often neither liberal nor democratic. He stands for “order”, but not the law. He urges police to kill criminals, or those they think might be criminals. He wants to change human-rights policy to “give priority to victims”, though presumably he does not mean the victims of extra-legal killings by police. He lacks a liberal regard for the public good in his plans to favour farmers over the environment and withdraw Brazil from the Paris agreement on climate change.

Whereas Mr Guedes proposes economic deregulation, Mr Bolsonaro wants moral re-regulation. He vows “to defend the family”; to “defend the innocence of children in school” against alleged homosexual propaganda; and to oppose abortion and the legalisation of drugs. As a congressman, he proposed birth control for the poor. He calls the generals who took power as dictators in Brazil in 1964 and ruled for two decades “heroes”. In July one of his sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is a congressman, said “a soldier and a corporal” would be enough to shut down the supreme court. (The candidate distanced himself from these “emotional” comments, saying “the court is the guardian of the constitution.”)

When Comte hijacked liberalism
The combination of political authoritarianism and free-market economics is not new in Brazil or Latin America. Indeed, Mr Guedes’s phrase at the convention harks back to the point in the history of Latin American thought when the notions of economic and political freedom became divorced. “Order and Progress” is the slogan stamped across Brazil’s flag. There is no mention of “freedom” or “equality”. The slogan was dreamed up when Brazil became a republic in 1889 under the influence of positivism, a set of ideas associated with Auguste Comte, a French philosopher. Positivists believed that government by a high-minded “scientific” elite could bring about modern industrial societies without violence or class struggle.

Positivism was little more than a footnote in Europe. But it was hugely influential in Latin America, especially in Brazil and Mexico. It combined a preference for strong central government with a conception of society as a hierarchical collective, rather than an agglomeration of free individuals. Positivism hijacked liberalism and its belief that progress would come from political and economic freedom for individuals, just when this seemed to have become the triumphant political philosophy in the region in the third quarter of the 19th century. According to Charles Hale, a historian of ideas, positivism relegated liberalism to a “foundation myth” of the Latin American republics. It was to be paid lip service in constitutions but ignored in political practice. In a sentiment to which Mr Bolsonaro might subscribe, Francisco G. Cosmes, a Mexican positivist, claimed in 1878 that rather than “rights” society preferred “bread…security, order and peace”.

The divorce between the ideas of political and economic freedom in Latin America was in part a consequence of the region’s difficulty in creating prosperous market economies and stable democracies based on equality of opportunity. But it has also been one of the causes of that failure.

Liberalism had struggled to change societies marked by big racial and social inequalities, inherited from Iberian colonialism, especially in rural Latin America. Liberals abolished slavery and the formal serfdom to which Indians were subjected in the Andes and Mexico. But the countryside remained polarised between owners of latifundia (large estates) and indentured labourers. Missing were yeoman farmers, or a rural bourgeoisie. André Rebouças, a leader of the movement to abolish slavery in Brazil (which happened only in 1888), envisaged a “rural democracy” resulting from “the emancipation of the slave and his regeneration through land ownership”. It never happened.


Positivists rejected the liberal belief in the equal value of all citizens and imbibed the “scientific racism” and social Darwinism in vogue in late 19th-century Europe. They saw the solution to Latin American backwardness in immigration of white European indentured labourers, which initially prevented a rise in rural wages for former slaves and serfs.

The ignored lesson of Canudos
The high-minded positivists who ran the Brazilian republic were humiliated by a rebellion in the 1890s by a monarchist preacher at Canudos, in the parched interior of Bahia in the north-east. It took four expeditions, the last involving 10,000 troops and heavy artillery, to crush Canudos, at a cost of 20,000 dead (some of the defenders had their throats cut after surrendering). Euclides da Cunha, a positivist army officer-turned-journalist who covered these events, wrote in “Os Sertões” (“Rebellion in the Backlands”), which became one of Brazil’s best-known books, that the military campaign would be “a crime” if it was not followed by “a constant, persistent, stubborn campaign of education” to draw these “rude and backward fellow-countrymen into…our national life”.

That was a liberal response from a positivist writer. Again, it didn’t happen. Veterans from the Canudos campaign would set up the first favelas in Rio de Janeiro, which soon were filled with migrants from the north-east. Their descendants may end up as victims of Mr Bolsonaro’s encouragement of police violence.

Liberalism never died in Latin America, but in the 20th century it often lost out. With industrialisation and the influence of European fascism, positivism morphed into corporatism, in which economic freedom yielded to the state’s organisation of the economy, as well as society, in non-competing functional units (unions and bosses’ organisations, for example). Corporatism, with the power it awarded to state functionaries of all kinds, appealed to many of the region’s military men.

That became clear when many countries suffered dictatorships in the 1960s and 1970s. The Brazilian military regime would intermittently adopt economic liberalism, especially under the aegis of Mario Henrique Simonsen, a brilliant economist (and one of Mr Guedes’s tutors). He twice tried to impose fiscal and monetary squeezes to curb inflation. His nemesis was Antonio Delfim Netto, who favoured expansion through debt and inflation, which would cost Brazil a “lost decade” in the 1980s. The dictatorship that Mr Bolsonaro so admires ignored Da Cunha’s plea: it left to civilian leaders a country in which a quarter of children aged seven to 14 were not at school. Only in the current democratic period, under the constitution of 1988, has Brazil achieved universal primary education and mass secondary schooling.

The exception to military corporatism was General Augusto Pinochet’s personal dictatorship in Chile from 1973 to 1990. Pinochet sensed, rightly, that corporatism would require him to share power with his military colleagues. Instead, he called on a group of civilian economists, dubbed the “Chicago boys” because several had studied at the University of Chicago, where the libertarian economics of Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman held sway.

Trial and error from the Chicago boys
The Chicago boys applied these principles in Chile, whose economy had been wrecked by the irresponsibility of Salvador Allende, a democratic socialist overthrown by Pinochet. Their programme would eventually lay the foundations for Chile to become Latin America’s most dynamic economy at the turn of the century. But it was akin to a major operation by trial and error and without anaesthetic. They slashed import tariffs and the fiscal deficit, which fell from 25% of gdp in 1973 to 1% in 1975. They privatised hundreds of companies, with no regard for competition or regulation. Worried that inflation was slow to fall, they established a fixed and overvalued exchange rate. The result of all this was that the economy came to be dominated by a few conglomerates, heavily indebted in dollars and centred on the private banks.

In 1982, after a rise in interest rates in the United States, Chile defaulted on its debts and the economy slumped. Poverty engulfed 45% of the population and the unemployment rate rose to 30%. Pinochet eventually dumped the Chicago boys and turned to more pragmatic economists, whose policies contributed to Chile’s post-dictatorship prosperity.

Something similar happened in Peru under the presidency of Alberto Fujimori, who governed from 1990 to 2000. He sent tanks to shut down congress and pushed through a radical free-market economic programme. Again, that laid the basis for a dynamic economy but carried heavy costs. Mr Fujimori’s regime engaged in systematic corruption, and his destruction of the party system and of judicial independence had consequences that are still being felt. In Guatemala and Honduras, Hayekian anti-state libertarianism has led to dystopias from which citizens migrate en masse to escape from weak governments unable to provide public security or encourage economic opportunity (see next story).

Mr Bolsonaro is a fan of Pinochet, who “did what had to be done”, he said in 2015. (This included killing some 3,000 political opponents and torturing tens of thousands.) So is Mr Guedes, who taught at the University of Chile in the 1980s, when the dean of its economics faculty was Pinochet’s budget director. Mr Guedes wants a flat income tax, a libertarian but not liberal measure. (Adam Smith, the father of liberal economics, favoured a progressive tax.)

So is Brazil in for a dose of pinochetismo? Mr Bolsonaro is not the army commander—indeed he was eased out of the army for indiscipline in 1988. And he is not a convincing economic liberal. At heart, he is a corporatist. As a congressman for 27 years, he repeatedly voted against privatisation and pension reform, and for increases in the wages of public servants.

Many of Mr Guedes’s proposals are vague, but sensible in principle and overdue. They include cutting the deficit and the public debt and reshaping public spending. Many of his proposed privatisations are necessary. As he told Piauí, a newspaper, Brazil is “paradise for rent seekers and hell for entrepreneurs”. He rightly wants to change that. But in many of these things Mr Bolsonaro may be his opponent. Mr Guedes may not last long.

Under a Bolsonaro presidency, Brazil could hope for a reformed, faster-growing economy and a president who keeps his authoritarian impulses in check. But there are plenty of risks. Perhaps the biggest is of illiberal democracy in which elections continue, but not the practice of democratic government with its checks and balances and rules of fairness. That could arise if a Bolsonaro presidency descended into permanent conflict, both within the government and between it and an opposition inflamed by Mr Bolsonaro’s verbal aggression. Frustrated, he might then lash out against the legislature and the courts. Separating economic and political freedom may seem like a short cut to development. But in Latin America it rarely is: the demand for strong government has vied with a persistent yearning for liberty.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Space Cat » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:21 am

Ha, I was going to post it too. Really great summary.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:46 pm

admin wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:52 am
bolsonaro says his first international trip will be to chile. not sure chile should hook its international rep to that guy.
Bolsonaro is a great admirer of Chile and Pinochet, while the centre right here are having to walk a bit of a tight rope walk with Bolsonaro, trying to please the middle (and the left and the right sometimes it seems, and of course keeping a close eye on the polls) and of course their good standing in Latin America.
The centre right are always in a bit of a dilemma too as they are so two faced when it comes to Pinochet, as they treat Pinochet like the drunk uncle at a wedding (in public don't mention him and try not to talk about him , and don't argue with anyone who says he is disgraceful , but in private have a great affection for him)
The further Right you go in Chile they are more open and can't get enough of Bolsonaro and want to jump into bed with him to see if some of his "magic" could possibly rub off on them.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Internaci ... ileno.html
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:46 pm

Space Cat wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:21 am
Ha, I was going to post it too. Really great summary.
:D it is a great summary
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by HybridAmbassador » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:52 pm

tiagoabner wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:21 am
Bolsonaro won due to him running against the PT guy in the second run: he would've list in all other scenarios. I'll post a more detailed breakdown later today, as well as some notes about his plans for regional politics.
So Bolsanaro is promising to the masses that he won't be accepting any sorts of "bribes" from the internationals, Ha! No "regalos" to the poh classes either, and he has well educated his offspring that they would never dates the "Pretos". Then his political only beneficiaries are the Military personnel's and the middle class, the rest can starve to death.. I wanting to find out how he intends to re-develop this mammouth country that with the right governance, it can really become an international powerhouse!
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