Chile's Place in Latin America

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Space Cat
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Space Cat » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:35 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:25 am
I have bern seeing this bullshit all over the place where they try to lump chile in with the rest of the nasket cases.

Not a single one. Not one, has provided an argument with any evidence as to why chile is vulneriable. It is just like the bullshit a few years ago where a bunch of idiots were trying to say chile was part of the fragile five. Everytime they do it, they just burn their own creditability.

There are however finally some investment notes being issued that chile is not as vulerable as other em countries.
Comparing the Chilean economy to the Ukrainian one is definitely idiotic.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:52 am

Here, a well reasoned look at the risk chile faces, without the normal EM histaria.

https://www.latinfinance.com/web-articl ... -peso-bond

That chile can issue these bonds in pesos is a circus trick most EM markets do not have the credit rating to pull off without a massive interest rate to go with it.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:54 am

By the way, a lot of the biggest companies in chile are still able to issue debt in the 2-3% range, and they get over subscribed offers.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:31 am

Here is an interview with chiles economic minister.

https://www.latinfinance.com/magazine/2 ... rra%C3%ADn

Along with a lot of interesting things, He is specificaly stating that chile is issueing debt in pesos, to not depress the currency.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:37 am

The risks i see for chile, is obviously copper coming unglued.

I am also keeping an eye on any chilean companies that are over exposed to the problematic neighbors. Cencosud is one that comes to mind. They have been way to exposed to argentina and brazil.

Latam stock, has been slammed recently in part because of brazil / argentina, but they also have a lot of dollar debt and expenses (e.g. new planes, fuel costs, fx risks). Really i think it is over blown, but still.

Companies that are over exposed to china, but those are typically minimal exposures. If eu, us, and china export markets got wacked at the same time then i would start getting nervious, but copper and other comodities will be first to get clobbered.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:21 pm

Woooooo argentina's stock market dropped 9% and 10% today.

http://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/ ... as/222869/

I am always negative on argentina's economy, but that is a crazy drop.

World cup?

There was actuelly a study of brazilian markets and how liquidity would dry up durring brazil games and super dry up durring a goal.
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Britkid
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Britkid » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:34 pm

Maradona is Argentina's great leader. It must have been the health scare at the football match that did in the stock market.. :)
In 2014/2015 I blogged about my life in Chile. http://web.archive.org/web/201601121940 ... age_id=268

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:45 pm

Seems argentina has entered a recession:

https://www.cronista.com/amp/economiapo ... -0105.html

Not sure anyone noticed
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:56 pm

Ahhh, think i finally found the cause of thar drop.

Seems the goverment is considering a tax on trading:

https://www.eldestapeweb.com/miercoles- ... n45738/amp

Way to shoot the economy in the foot, again.

I am sure the polticians were all leveredged up to short the market just like christian shorted the peso.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:35 pm

This also caught my attention. Argentinians are bouncing checks.

http://www.perfil.com/noticias/economia ... ados.phtml

I started thinking about it. If you can make 40% leaving your money in the bank, or have your money in dollars, and there is some smaller fee for bouncing a check, say for the eletric bill, that takes weeks or months to sort out, bouncing a check is the profitiable thing to do.

In short their entire banking system and economy is siezing up, again.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by Space Cat » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:20 pm

Really, one more import tax? Uh, Argentina has two well-functioning neighboring countries to copy from but too stubborn or proud to actually do it.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:06 am

They got pretty much same explanations i came up with:

https://www.df.cl/noticias/mercados/mer ... 52821.html
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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