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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:44 pm
by admin
This is a fun article with u.s. debt charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... every-year

Yesterday i seen an interview with one of the fed commitee members.

What stopped my heart, was she responded to a question about fed interest rates, unemployment vs. Wage inflation, and the flattening yield curve with, "well, this time appears to be diffrent ..."

What she said after, i dont even remember and does not even mater. The fact those words came out of mouth of a fed commitee member was sufficient for me to go check the price of gold (and i hate gold, for all sorts of reasons).

Look out below.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:56 pm
by admin
The real irony of the recent EM problems (e.g. too much dollar debt), might make those same countries super stars in a colapsing dollar enviroment where they have to repay dollar debt while earning money in 'hard currencies'. By hard currencies i define as generating income by selling commodities. What they are priced in is irrelevant, as long as the country has more commodities to sell, and chile has a lot.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:58 pm
by admin
Here is an article on fed member views on the yield curve inversion:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 068905ec23

By the way, for those that dont know why that is impprtant, when it inverts, recession tend to follow. Like 7 out of 7 of the last yield curve inversions.

So basicaly the fed comittee is saying to hell with the yield curve.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:16 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
The next recessionary massive quantitative easing well be the hyper-inflationary event some of us have been waiting for for a loooooong time.

You are either prepared for it or not as it will be too late to act as the reset wll be over in a matter of days.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:32 am
by mem
Yeah its hard to say, as Admin says, if the dollar collapse is on the slower side, then repaying dollar denominated debt by EM countries getting income from tangible goods it could be great. However if its on the faster/sudden side and the US ends up either repricing the USD (yesterdays debt of 1$ is now 2$) or issuing a new USD to accomplish essentially the same thing. Of course this all seems so implausible for the US to do...venezuela, turkey, sure but not Uncle Sam. It would take a major acute cataclysm for that to happen

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:47 am
by admin
mem wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:32 am
Yeah its hard to say, as Admin says, if the dollar collapse is on the slower side, then repaying dollar denominated debt by EM countries getting income from tangible goods it could be great. However if its on the faster/sudden side and the US ends up either repricing the USD (yesterdays debt of 1$ is now 2$) or issuing a new USD to accomplish essentially the same thing. Of course this all seems so implausible for the US to do...venezuela, turkey, sure but not Uncle Sam. It would take a major acute cataclysm for that to happen
Two words: Donald Trump

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:45 pm
by Britkid
Pound has hit 890 today for first time since 2016, could reach 900.
Dollar also may hit 700 for first time since 2016.
Euro has already hit 800 for first time since 2016.

Peso seems to be weakening lately (I don't know why).

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:45 pm
by frozen-north
Britkid wrote:
Peso seems to be weakening lately (I don't know why).
A similar comment was made this morning in the radio regarding the Canadian dollar. I found an article that tries to explain it. May be there are explanations out there on what affects the movement of the Chilean peso.
Here’s Why the Relationship Between Oil and the Canadian Dollar has Broken Down
20 December 2017

The first of these is to do with the root cause behind the recent rise in oil prices, which have been driven almost exclusively by OPEC policies rather than organic changes in supply and demand.

Patel also notes how monetary policy has taken over as the primary driver of the Loonie, relegating oil prices to second place as an influence on the currency.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/cad/8 ... ian-dollar

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:22 pm
by Britkid
I just remembered that usually the Chilean peso goes up and down quite close to the copper price. I just googled copper price and it has indeed declined this week as well as in recent months. Well, that explains it probably. It's amazing how close the correlation always seems to be between the copper price and the peso. I guess Chile is a stable country and there's just nothing else that can make a big difference. Same story I've noticed in the past.

You know, it just this minute occurred to me if you live in Chile but earn in another currency if you are working remotely you could totally hedge a bit by investing in some copper companies. Whether the copper price is strong it's bad news for you because the peso is strong so you spend more dollars (or whatever foreign currency) to meet your same peso news so your savings get depleted. But at least if you had an investment in copper you would get some good news from your copper investment to hedge it.

It might be a better, more effective hedge than just putting all your savings in pesos.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:14 pm
by paladin
So what’s it going to ve tomorrow- we break the 700 or will there be a taking of profits ?

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:39 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
I guess we can place bets (transfers of plata enough to buy a good bottle of wine?). :P

UPDATED: Had my parameters messed up.

Since Friday is usually rescue day, I vote on further weakening of the currencies referenced over the next two days.
Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 11.50.29 AM.jpg

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:48 am
by Jamers41
I too have lately wondered about the stability of Peru's currency.