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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 4:33 pm
by HybridAmbassador
I have a compatriot living in Buenos Aires and he is in fear of high inflation there. He said a few 3~4 years ago a good steak dinner cost around $20 bucks, but now days the same steak can not have for less than $50 US bucks! Since Macri everything is sky high and the poor Peso earning Argies with family is facing inflation of more than 40%.! I thought Macri had the Xi clan investing those China Dollars in abundance there, what happened?

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue May 08, 2018 4:51 pm
by 41southchile
635 to the dolar 5 percent fall in a week. What are main reasons here ? Is it contagion from Argentina ? Copper, although it's same as where it is a week ago , bounced around a little but nothing spectacular. It is it other offshore factors , US economy ?

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Tue May 08, 2018 7:28 pm
by Julito
Same here in the hotel over summer, lots of Argies, and they're still coming, shopping and holidaying just in lesser numbers.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Wed May 09, 2018 8:34 am
by admin
Think this all about shifting assets in prep for fed rate hikes.

I jist heard one of the best analogies to describe what is going on in the emerging markets rite now.

When interest rates rise and fx volitility sets in, it is like a lion hunting gazels on the emerging market savana. It stocks the slow and the weak ones first, and perhaps spooks a few of the nearby heard in the process.

So who are the easy game?

Argentina. Easy meal. Always has been on the menu, and always will be on the menu.

Venezuela is pretty picked clean. Not even the vultures are interested in that corpse.

Brazil is in trouble still, but they are so large it is like trying to take down the old bull elephent. Sick, but still dangerious.

Peru, i have my doubts but they are in pretty good shape.

Colombia concerns me.

Mexico is bleeding, and could atract some predators.

Central america has a bunch of lion treats that are on the verge of political colapse.

There might be some kitty treats in the carribean. Font really pay attentiin, but cuba is fairly exposed.

Chile is getting up and running, just as this em safary is starting. Still, would not discount the possibility of chile getting scratched in the fight. Especially of the china-u.s. trade mess goes viral.

Still think a stronger peso, sub-600, is where 2018 ends. If anything, good time for a weaker peso. Lowest interest rates in the em world, 4.6% growth last month, and talk of 5 to 6% this month, and a goverment that is set on dialing back spending.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Wed May 09, 2018 5:55 pm
by 41southchile

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:31 pm
by Cayte
What is going on with the peso/dollar exchange rate? Now it is over 660. I was afraid that by now it would be already down to around 550, as others had thought... Is this because of low copper price due to less China demand, Trump's trade war hurting China and copper demand, rising USA interest rates, better than expected economic growth in USA, not so great growth in Chile, stagnant real estate price inflation in Chile, worried banks in Chile keeping interest rates low here, to prevent recession?

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:43 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
Wall Street vultures attacking all emerging market currencies because they can even if the facts on the ground do not warrant it in particular cases.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:28 pm
by admin
Cayte wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:31 pm
What is going on with the peso/dollar exchange rate? Now it is over 660. I was afraid that by now it would be already down to around 550, as others had thought... Is this because of low copper price due to less China demand, Trump's trade war hurting China and copper demand, rising USA interest rates, better than expected economic growth in USA, not so great growth in Chile, stagnant real estate price inflation in Chile, worried banks in Chile keeping interest rates low here, to prevent recession?
How is 5 to 6% growth not great growth?

The peso is down because of copper, and given the recent nose dive, kind of suprised the peso is not pushing more like 680 to 690 right now.

China will intervien. Copper will reverse.

We still have the fed raising rates, and the inbestment banks messing with the em markets.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:46 pm
by eeuunikkeiexpat
The reversal of CLP may begin tomorrow. Despite the belligerence of Turkey, there seems to be a counter collapse going on since the 14th. China, Russia, other allied?...and Turkiye also started dumping UST (like Russia did upon sanctions).
Screen Shot 2018-08-16 at 7.39.50 PM.jpg

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 am
by admin
Yea, with all the global macro economic stuff going on, i would not be suprised if we take a run at 700 some time this year. Still think we end the year more towards the sub-600 level.

I dont read anything in to the real estate prices flat lining, as it is the middle of winter. The transactions are always flat in the winter months, and prices tend to drop a bit in the spring in some sectors, before gaining for the year. Come like around december, there is no price action, i might start worrying (or buying ).

Santander announced a few months back they would be joining most other banks that they would be dialing back their down payments from 20% to 10% for mortagaes.

We have 2.5% central bank rate, and they seem to be holding there to see what diection this global issues break.

Copper will be the big driver of the peso, and DR. Copper might be sending the rest of the world an important message. That strong dollar will drag on every country, but will reverse at some point and possibly in a big way.

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:04 pm
by mem
Yeah its gotta be the lower copper prices and emerging market currency chaos. I just wonder how long it will be before a strong copper rebound occur...it could be longer than we expect

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:25 pm
by admin
mem wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:04 pm
Yeah its gotta be the lower copper prices and emerging market currency chaos. I just wonder how long it will be before a strong copper rebound occur...it could be longer than we expect
Im expecting copper prices to snap back at some point:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1L712G

Tarrifs on Scrap metal out of the u.s.

Demand related to EV development.

Unwind / reversal of the dollar fx trades

Trump