Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Chile Investment, how to invest in Chile, what to watch out for when investing, economic issues, currency exchange in Chile, and more.
HybridAmbassador
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 3690
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:19 pm

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri May 04, 2018 4:33 pm

I have a compatriot living in Buenos Aires and he is in fear of high inflation there. He said a few 3~4 years ago a good steak dinner cost around $20 bucks, but now days the same steak can not have for less than $50 US bucks! Since Macri everything is sky high and the poor Peso earning Argies with family is facing inflation of more than 40%.! I thought Macri had the Xi clan investing those China Dollars in abundance there, what happened?
HybridAmbassador. Toyota Hybrid system for helping climate change.

41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 247
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm
Location: Lakes Region

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by 41southchile » Tue May 08, 2018 4:51 pm

635 to the dolar 5 percent fall in a week. What are main reasons here ? Is it contagion from Argentina ? Copper, although it's same as where it is a week ago , bounced around a little but nothing spectacular. It is it other offshore factors , US economy ?
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

Julito
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 163
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:39 pm
Location: Villarrica

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by Julito » Tue May 08, 2018 7:28 pm

Same here in the hotel over summer, lots of Argies, and they're still coming, shopping and holidaying just in lesser numbers.

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Wed May 09, 2018 8:34 am

Think this all about shifting assets in prep for fed rate hikes.

I jist heard one of the best analogies to describe what is going on in the emerging markets rite now.

When interest rates rise and fx volitility sets in, it is like a lion hunting gazels on the emerging market savana. It stocks the slow and the weak ones first, and perhaps spooks a few of the nearby heard in the process.

So who are the easy game?

Argentina. Easy meal. Always has been on the menu, and always will be on the menu.

Venezuela is pretty picked clean. Not even the vultures are interested in that corpse.

Brazil is in trouble still, but they are so large it is like trying to take down the old bull elephent. Sick, but still dangerious.

Peru, i have my doubts but they are in pretty good shape.

Colombia concerns me.

Mexico is bleeding, and could atract some predators.

Central america has a bunch of lion treats that are on the verge of political colapse.

There might be some kitty treats in the carribean. Font really pay attentiin, but cuba is fairly exposed.

Chile is getting up and running, just as this em safary is starting. Still, would not discount the possibility of chile getting scratched in the fight. Especially of the china-u.s. trade mess goes viral.

Still think a stronger peso, sub-600, is where 2018 ends. If anything, good time for a weaker peso. Lowest interest rates in the em world, 4.6% growth last month, and talk of 5 to 6% this month, and a goverment that is set on dialing back spending.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

41southchile
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 247
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:39 pm
Location: Lakes Region

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by 41southchile » Wed May 09, 2018 5:55 pm

In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

User avatar
Cayte
Rank: Chile Forum Full Member
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Mar 17, 2010 7:14 pm

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by Cayte » Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:31 pm

What is going on with the peso/dollar exchange rate? Now it is over 660. I was afraid that by now it would be already down to around 550, as others had thought... Is this because of low copper price due to less China demand, Trump's trade war hurting China and copper demand, rising USA interest rates, better than expected economic growth in USA, not so great growth in Chile, stagnant real estate price inflation in Chile, worried banks in Chile keeping interest rates low here, to prevent recession?
"When you see that men get richer by graft than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you - When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - You know your society is doomed"

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 7240
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:43 pm

Wall Street vultures attacking all emerging market currencies because they can even if the facts on the ground do not warrant it in particular cases.
Generally, just a SPAM KILLER. You are on your own in this forum. My personal mission here is done.

BUT when necessary, by way of ridicule and truth revelation we shalt do war.

--eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:28 pm

Cayte wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:31 pm
What is going on with the peso/dollar exchange rate? Now it is over 660. I was afraid that by now it would be already down to around 550, as others had thought... Is this because of low copper price due to less China demand, Trump's trade war hurting China and copper demand, rising USA interest rates, better than expected economic growth in USA, not so great growth in Chile, stagnant real estate price inflation in Chile, worried banks in Chile keeping interest rates low here, to prevent recession?
How is 5 to 6% growth not great growth?

The peso is down because of copper, and given the recent nose dive, kind of suprised the peso is not pushing more like 680 to 690 right now.

China will intervien. Copper will reverse.

We still have the fed raising rates, and the inbestment banks messing with the em markets.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

User avatar
eeuunikkeiexpat
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 7240
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:38 am
Location: Megalith of unknown origin near my digs, south V Region coast

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:46 pm

The reversal of CLP may begin tomorrow. Despite the belligerence of Turkey, there seems to be a counter collapse going on since the 14th. China, Russia, other allied?...and Turkiye also started dumping UST (like Russia did upon sanctions).
Screen Shot 2018-08-16 at 7.39.50 PM.jpg
Generally, just a SPAM KILLER. You are on your own in this forum. My personal mission here is done.

BUT when necessary, by way of ridicule and truth revelation we shalt do war.

--eeuunikkeiexpat

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:21 am

Yea, with all the global macro economic stuff going on, i would not be suprised if we take a run at 700 some time this year. Still think we end the year more towards the sub-600 level.

I dont read anything in to the real estate prices flat lining, as it is the middle of winter. The transactions are always flat in the winter months, and prices tend to drop a bit in the spring in some sectors, before gaining for the year. Come like around december, there is no price action, i might start worrying (or buying ).

Santander announced a few months back they would be joining most other banks that they would be dialing back their down payments from 20% to 10% for mortagaes.

We have 2.5% central bank rate, and they seem to be holding there to see what diection this global issues break.

Copper will be the big driver of the peso, and DR. Copper might be sending the rest of the world an important message. That strong dollar will drag on every country, but will reverse at some point and possibly in a big way.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

mem
Rank: Chile Forum Citizen
Posts: 262
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:18 am

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by mem » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:04 pm

Yeah its gotta be the lower copper prices and emerging market currency chaos. I just wonder how long it will be before a strong copper rebound occur...it could be longer than we expect

User avatar
admin
Site Admin
Posts: 16464
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:02 pm
Location: Frutillar, Chile
Contact:

Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:25 pm

mem wrote:
Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:04 pm
Yeah its gotta be the lower copper prices and emerging market currency chaos. I just wonder how long it will be before a strong copper rebound occur...it could be longer than we expect
Im expecting copper prices to snap back at some point:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1L712G

Tarrifs on Scrap metal out of the u.s.

Demand related to EV development.

Unwind / reversal of the dollar fx trades

Trump
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

Post Reply