Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:48 am

A little more back on track of the theme of this thread, it was interesting yesterday to see the Chilean stock market go up, while the U.S. and other markets were hammered. They don't typically diverge very much in their direction. U.S. market up, Chilean market up. U.S. market down, Chilean market will be down. So it sort of sticks out when they do two different dances.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:45 am

1 USD = 588.831 CLP

That sure looks like sub-600 is going to stick for a while. Look-out below!!!

With all that is going on in the States right now, I think it is time I start reducing the amount of dollars I hang on to. It is very small amount, but more than I would like to have around with a strengthening peso.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:52 am

I have a little strategy that has served me well, when currency direction is in question. I cash my dollars, and sink it in to something that will pay off (or at least not loose value) if I get the move wrong.

For instance, I am remodeling a kitchen right now. I can sink a bit more in to a better kitchen, and even if I get the short-term move wrong, over a year or two the value of a higher-quality renovation typically pays off one way or the other. At the very least, I get to enjoy a nicer kitchen.

Just paying off bills or any short-term debts is typically a good move, regardless of exchange rates or inflation directions.

Basically I hate sitting on cash. It is boring, and subject to needing a very accurate crystal ball about the future. Those are always in short-supply.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by Jamers41 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:51 pm

admin wrote:
Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:52 am
Basically I hate sitting on cash. It is boring, and subject to needing a very accurate crystal ball about the future. Those are always in short-supply.
These crystal balls you speak of sound interesting.......know anywhere I could get one of those? :D

Meanwhile I will just enjoy the cheaper dollar.......good for travelling or (in my case) paying off debts in dollars.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by scandinavian » Wed May 02, 2018 11:12 am

Back up to 619... Interesting whether it continues to climb

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by 41southchile » Wed May 02, 2018 11:23 am

Yeah big spike Monda and carrying on today, what's the theories ?
In the Lakes Region Chile for 6 years. It looks like New Zealand in some ways, and is nearly at the bottom of the world too, but there the similarities end.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by HybridAmbassador » Wed May 02, 2018 4:39 pm

scandinavian wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:12 am
Back up to 619... Interesting whether it continues to climb
Are you talking Pesos agaisnt US Dollars? If so, is not to climb but downing. Climbing against the Dollar is if goes up to 500 ish Pesos
to the Dollar me thinks.?
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Wed May 02, 2018 6:30 pm

Schizo USDI did shoot up from the 89 zone to the 92+ zone.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Fri May 04, 2018 10:08 am

Strap in. We are going for a wild ride over the next year or two.

The fed is trying to tap the breaks, except they are now trying to keep a fully loaded debt tanker from hitting the ice berg. Tankers and the global economy, dont stop on a dime.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -debt-bomb

I still think long term the dollar is a bad bet, and assets denominated in dollars with them.

There was a general that commented in an artcle about the national security risk posed by the u.s. debt level recently. Can not find the article now.

It had two shocking points.

The u.s. is on track by 2022, to spend 1 of every 6 dollars of revenue on just interest payments, and that is assuming interest rates for the u.s. gov stay low and the economy stays relatively hot.

The u.s. is on track to exceed even itialian debt to gdp.

The rest is hiding in corporate debt around the world. All those companies loaded up on low interest rate loans. Personal debt got unloaded on to companies, with little hitting the public gov debts back 2008. Now it is time for companies to unload their debt on to the public books. That has, almost without exception in history, not ended well.

Strangly, this time, emerging markets for the most part are in pretty good shape. Few usual suspects out their that are in a fragil state that can not withstand rising interest rates such as argentina, but most of those countries are well known risks. Perhaps china is something to keep an eye in the EM, bit they have lots of options for controlling their debt.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Fri May 04, 2018 1:37 pm

Argentina in looks like it might be loosing control again, and how fast this happened this time even i am kind of suprised.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 6cc3266ad2

However i am not sure i want to call this another economic implosion, or just a continuation of the last implosion.

A Friend that spends a lot of time in argentina said it simply. No one has any confidence in argentina's goverment, so everyone jacks their prices up now knowing next month they will get burned by the inflation.
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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by at46 » Fri May 04, 2018 2:11 pm

admin wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 1:37 pm
Argentina in looks like it might be loosing control again
Here on the coast landlords already knew that half a year ago when no Argies showed up for the summer. It was a disaster.

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Re: Chile Peso 2018, Starts at 605.50

Post by admin » Fri May 04, 2018 2:27 pm

We had a lot tourist from argentina this year around the lake. They are easy to spot. They all drive like it is their first time in a car.

I dont know how well they were spending overall, but they were here.
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