Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

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Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:56 am

Time for a new 2017 thread on the peso.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:59 am

The pesos this year will be all about the Trump administration internationally, and all about the Chilean presidential election domestically.
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:40 am

woops, I meant 2017
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:43 am

I am thinking at some point we are going to get a really nasty global correction this year. Perhaps sooner rather than later. Global stock markets are running on fumes, and history says that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, at some point the bubble will burst shortly afterwords.
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by HybridAmbassador » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:38 pm

admin wrote:I am thinking at some point we are going to get a really nasty global correction this year. Perhaps sooner rather than later. Global stock markets are running on fumes, and history says that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, at some point the bubble will burst shortly afterwords.
All money spread around the globe will coming back pronto to EEUU! New York, Tokyo hitting record highs..

Feds raising interest rate, then investors thinking money to be made so all liquidity invested in Trumps America!
market almost seen 20 grands, ended highest to the tune of 19.998 or thereabouts ..
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:46 am

HybridAmbassador wrote:
admin wrote:I am thinking at some point we are going to get a really nasty global correction this year. Perhaps sooner rather than later. Global stock markets are running on fumes, and history says that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, at some point the bubble will burst shortly afterwords.
All money spread around the globe will coming back pronto to EEUU! New York, Tokyo hitting record highs..

Feds raising interest rate, then investors thinking money to be made so all liquidity invested in Trumps America!
market almost seen 20 grands, ended highest to the tune of 19.998 or thereabouts ..
Exactly.

Wait for everyone to get sucked in to the event horizon where they can not escape the black hole.

Then buy everything that is still outside event horizon.

Drink a beer and wait for the super nova.

Without mtephores, get ready to do the opposite of what these guys say.

http://fortune.com/2017/01/09/jpmorgan- ... picks=true

Latin america i think will do particularly well in the east / west tug of war. All sides will dump money in to LA, in an attempt to keep political influence in the u.s. back yard, and blind spot after 20 years of neglect, that will lead to the u
S. Dumping money in to latin america to counter the rusdian, middle eastern, and especially chinese rush for econimic and political control.

I think we will start seeing solid signs of this by the end of 2017. For example, the chinese willl become mexico's best friend all of a sudden.
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by john » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:10 pm

I think that you can predict (without going out too far on a limb) that during the next 2-3 years:

1. The FED will continue to periodically raise interest rates
2. The US inflation rate will continue to increase
3. US prices will rise, especially on imported goods
4. Capital in-flows to the US will strengthen the dollar exchange rate vis-a-vis other major currencies
5. US imports and exports will fall due to trade protectionism measures
6. US Balance of Trade will further deteriorate
6. US budget deficits will increase significantly due to lower tax revenues resulting from cutting taxes on the wealthy

Cannot see how any of the above factors would be positive for the Chilean peso exchange rate, at least not in the foreseeable future.
One must care about a world one will not see.
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by admin » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:44 pm

Here is some food for thought.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-markets

Since 1996, the top 9 out of the top 10 best performing markets in the world, in dollars, were emerging markets every year.

The chart shows chile consistently in that top 10, especially like in 2008 when the other markets got slammed.
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by john » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:02 pm

admin wrote:Here is some food for thought.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-markets

Since 1996, the top 9 out of the top 10 best performing markets in the world, in dollars, were emerging markets every year.

The chart shows chile consistently in that top 10, especially like in 2008 when the other markets got slammed.
Have no reason to doubt that the Chilean stock market will continue to have equity gains in 2017 and beyond. My comments were related to the CLP exchange rate. The data does not support any strong correlation between stock returns and exchange rates.

http://voxeu.org/article/stock-and-currency-returns
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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by matt4prat » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:22 pm

So what is the consensus here? Will the 2017 value of the CLP increase against the US dollar or will it drop in value against the US dollar?

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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by john » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:29 pm

matt4prat wrote:So what is the consensus here? Will the 2017 value of the CLP increase against the US dollar or will it drop in value against the US dollar?
My prediction is that the CLP will drop in value against the US dollar.
One must care about a world one will not see.
--- Bertrand Russell

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Re: Chile Peso 2017, starts at 665.29

Post by at46 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:04 pm

john wrote:My comments were related to the CLP exchange rate. The data does not support any strong correlation between stock returns and exchange rates.

http://voxeu.org/article/stock-and-currency-returns
Isn't it all about the copper price? Correlation of 0.93 with the peso rate. Also, what about the currency swap with China that moved 10% of Chile/China trade off of the US dollar? China is making a lot of those swap deals around the world that are totally not pro-dollar. Who knows how that's gonna play out? The only thing the US can counter that with is by continuing to blow up regions of the world, now that vampire squidding on the faces of Europe/Japan and a bunch of others is getting harder.

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