Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by admin » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:33 am

Time for Venezuela to start screaming uncle:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive ... nance.html

They can not pay for the liquids they need to dilute their crude for export.

I am just curious how long it takes for that Venzuela oil supply to work it's way in to the market prices. Because there seems to be a very organized effort in the market media to ignore any information that would point to a drop in supply, while playing up every extra drop of oil that comes on to the market.

I also think the stories of the U.S. frakers being more resilient to the oil price drop is over played. They base it off the increase in rig counts and production around Nov. or Dec. last year as evidence that they were still profitable. All I see as evidence was a massive rush to pump and sell everything they could, prior to the prices dropping even further (daa, better to pump more at $40 a barrel than $30 or $20 a barrel a month later), to build cash to survive even lower oil prices. That is going to suddenly disappear, and everyone will declare there is an oil shortage. I think the market makers are simply talking down the price to cause a much more dramatic rebound.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by HybridAmbassador » Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:33 pm

admin wrote:Time for Venezuela to start screaming uncle:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive ... nance.html

They can not pay for the liquids they need to dilute their crude for export.

I am just curious how long it takes for that Venzuela oil supply to work it's way in to the market prices. Because there seems to be a very organized effort in the market media to ignore any information that would point to a drop in supply, while playing up every extra drop of oil that comes on to the market.

I also think the stories of the U.S. frakers being more resilient to the oil price drop is over played. They base it off the increase in rig counts and production around Nov. or Dec. last year as evidence that they were still profitable. All I see as evidence was a massive rush to pump and sell everything they could, prior to the prices dropping even further (daa, better to pump more at $40 a barrel than $30 or $20 a barrel a month later), to build cash to survive even lower oil prices. That is going to suddenly disappear, and everyone will declare there is an oil shortage. I think the market makers are simply talking down the price to cause a much more dramatic rebound.
I am just curious how long it takes for that Venzuela oil supply to work it's way in to the market prices
First、all Venezuela's available oil production is due to the Chinese. China paid ahead for all oil coming out from Venezuela in the tune of US$40 Billion it is rumored. So the Chinos has the first right for those "paid ahead" oil production.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by El Chupacabra » Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:51 pm

pascual wrote:
El Chupacabra wrote:
pascual wrote:I am dollar heavy as well...Canadian dollars.

I will be using my dollars as toilet paper soon enough.

Anyone know what the ballpark value of a Canadian dollar is at any of the Santiago exchanges right now? XE.com shows 510 but I know local exchanges are always higher by quite a bit. Not there to check myself at the moment.

Here is hoping for USA/Canadian parity once again...in my lifetime. Oh the good old days. :(
I exchanged some Canadian dollars a few days ago at around 490ish, and the week before that at 508.
So it is always better to bring dollars to Chile and change currency into pesos there right? I honestly always just used bank machines but now that the Canadian dollar is so bad I'd love to try and maximize the amount of pesos I get for my dollar without fees and crappy rates from my bank.

Any ideas or good cambios in the Santiago area people can suggest?

No, you will actually get a better rate if you withdraw direct from your bank account or use your visa. Visa and banks always give the best exchange rates. I just usually do what's more convenient for me at the time. Withdrawing direct from your bank account will always get you a better rate, but then you will get hit with a $5-8 dollar transaction fee. So, as long as your withdrawing a large amount of funds it should be worth it.

EDIT: Just an FYI - I exchanged $500 CDN dollars yesterday at 477. But I'm in Vina for a while so I don't know if the rates in Santiago are just better, or the Canadian currency took a small hit in the last week. I just spent the two weeks in the Elqui Valley (La Serena area) and the rates were so ridicules (430ish range) That I just withdrew funds from the bank machines because it was such a rip off at the local casa de cambios.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by admin » Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:03 pm

1.00 USD = 730.262 CLP
US Dollar ↔ Chilean Peso
1 USD = 730.262 CLP 1 CLP = 0.00136937 USD

I really have no explanation for why that is trading at such a consistent range with all the carnage internationally in the markets. The peso has just been rock solid all week. Mining stocks are getting hammered. Oil is getting hammered. China is getting hammered. Everything is getting hammered but the peso.

Perhaps the currency guys forgot about chile, because there is fresh blood other places.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by regioncentralX » Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:33 pm

Yeah Charles, very interesting, my opinion, the same mysterious factor is keeping the US dollar index below 100. If the dollar index does burst through 100, 750 CLP/USD is in the cards and possibly more.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by admin » Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:39 am

yea, by market close yesterday, I was totally confused. Thought it was just my lack of understanding and experience in the finer points of such market crashes/ corrections. Things that should have crashed, had been crashing for months, suddenly were going up. Things that should have been going up were crashing. Things that should have done something, were moving sideways.

This morning, all the international media is a buzzing with everyone from hedge fund managers to investment banks saying they have never seen anything like this. One investment adviser I read this morning said they had never seen anything like this in 30+ years of trading. Everyone is pointing fingers in all sorts of silly directions: China, oil, iran, russia, the full moon. None of that was news, or even a surprise. It was all very scheduled in.

The shear confusion, turning to panic, has me thinking we found a bottom of some sort. Perhaps not the absolute bottom, but some sort of footing is close. It might take the next year or two to pick up the pieces, with a lot of ups and downs in between, but ....

The emerging markets are going to suffer for it all in the meantime. Venezuela is getting messier by the moment. I still find it fascinating none of the talking heads are talking about the elimination of Venezuelan oil from the market. Every day there are more and more stories about Venezuela not being able to pay this bill or that bill. Everyone from the milk producers in Uruguay, to international p harmacy companies, to the very dilutents they need to export oil. Meanwhile, smuggling all the "free stuff" the government gives away to neighboring country is growing by the sec. Venzuela is going to go nuclear, and suddenly everyone will panic in the oil markets and the latin american emerging markets. Of course that will be just as big a surprise as there being a full moon in February 2016, but don't tell the talking heads on TV that.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by regioncentralX » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:34 pm

A piece to the puzzle? Hint: Saudis following orders.

http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160 ... crash.html
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by john » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:07 pm

regioncentralX wrote:A piece to the puzzle? Hint: Saudis following orders.

http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160 ... crash.html
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by regioncentralX » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:11 pm

US FED, allied international banks, allied central banks and the BIS at the very top.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by john » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:18 pm

regioncentralX wrote:US FED, allied international banks, allied central banks and the BIS at the very top.
What a relief! :)
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by admin » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:42 am

how appropriate the topic takes this turn this morning.

The saudi and other oil countries treasury holdings the U.S. government has kept secret for over 40 years:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... me-crucial

It is shit like this, that will crash the entire global economy.

As an american I can not keep my account secret, with all of two or three pesos in it, but the f-ing u.s. government will keep the largest funder of terrorism and most blatant human rights abusers in the World's accounts secret. This is the real reason the saudi royal family was allowed to fly on 911.

No corruption here. Move it along. Nothing to see.
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Re: Chile Peso 2016, starts at 717

Post by Andres » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:33 am

admin wrote:I really have no explanation for why that is trading at such a consistent range with all the carnage internationally in the markets. The peso has just been rock solid all week. Mining stocks are getting hammered. Oil is getting hammered. China is getting hammered. Everything is getting hammered but the peso.
Perhaps the currency guys forgot about chile, because there is fresh blood other places.
Maybe because the copper price has had far less volatility than other prices.

A lot of the price changes have been because of fear and unknowns; comparatively, Chile is boringly stable.
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