Chile's Place in Latin America

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:43 pm

i have seen diffrent stats ranging from 10% to 30%, but i am pretty sure it has not been over 50% in a while simply due to the price of copper vs. diversification of econlmy in other areas.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:29 am

admin wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:43 pm
i have seen diffrent stats ranging from 10% to 30%, but i am pretty sure it has not been over 50% in a while simply due to the price of copper vs. diversification of econlmy in other areas.
Copper and ore was just over 40% of Chilean exports in 2016 - when copper price bottomed out. Since then the price went up around 35% meaning that copper and ore share in exports also went up, probably cresting into the low fifties again.

Since it used to be 80% in the sixties, I guess it decreases at a rate of 0.5% per year :)

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chl/

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:43 am

if i get a sec i will go dig out the latest stats on copper. sure it is on the central bank web site.

there is always a confusion between copper as a % of exports by vulume, copper as a percent of national gdp, and copper revenue to the state. codelco for several years made nothing, and the goverment put in several billion in new investment money.

but i simply don't follow it that much.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:20 pm

here is a great article about what i am trying to get at with these calculations and why it is so difficult: intrinsic value.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/warren- ... value.html

that is about trying to nail it down for a single company. try doing that for a whole country, with very imperfect data.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:33 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:43 am
there is always a confusion between copper as a % of exports by vulume, copper as a percent of national gdp, and copper revenue to the state. codelco for several years made nothing, and the goverment put in several billion in new investment money.
The link I posted has dollar values, which would indicate over 50% of all Chilean exports are copper and ore right now, after the price rise. But whether or not the government-Codelco or we the people get anything out of that, or out of any other exports, is a completely different matter.

The trick with stock valuations has everything to do with 'goodwill' and the irresistible charm of someone like Elizabeth Holms - in the current age of Niagara-scale liquidity downpour.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:15 pm

Chile moved up four notches to 9th place in the latest Bloomberg emerging market score-card. Columbia shot up 10 notches to 5th place from 15th six months ago. Perú down four notches at 13th. Russia at number 2? Privyet! :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aysia-tops

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:20 pm

yea that is a very convoluted scoring system. i am not sure what that says about any of those countries; but, hey bloomberg has at least dropped the "fragile five" narative it worked so hard to make stick on chile earlier this year.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by at46 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:26 am

The scores from six months ago were completely politically motivated, imho. Like, Philippines in second place? Or Turkey one notch below China? And Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Colombia lumped in together without distinction in the bottom half? If they did it alphabetically, at least it would have shown their education. The new one has a little more connection to reality, in my view.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:52 pm

at46 wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:26 am
The scores from six months ago were completely politically motivated, imho. Like, Philippines in second place? Or Turkey one notch below China? And Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Colombia lumped in together without distinction in the bottom half? If they did it alphabetically, at least it would have shown their education. The new one has a little more connection to reality, in my view.
The fact that Turkey was listed at all is just crazy. Turkey basically outlawed bankruptcy several years ago, and there are hundreds of zombie companies and banks that would have gone bankrupt several years ago, and definitely last year. A total extend and pretend economic policy, that bloomberg, the rating agencies, the bond traders all did a big wink wink to pretend they were still solvent. Guess who was the biggest beneficiary of that extend and pretend?

European banks. Especially Spanish banks. They are all up to their eyeballs in defaulted debt from Turkey; except, Turkey will not let them default, and thus, the European banks get to pretend those loans are still good.

But hey, the politicians around the World just love 'extend and pretend'. The U.S. is the master of it. China is a close second. The Argentinians have probably been doing it longer than anyone else.

Forget all my other arguments for why Chile is under valued. Let's for a second say Chile is priced at exactly where it should be. It is the 50% or more of the other countries that are complete accounting b.s., that means Chile should be priced 3 times higher relative to their cooked books.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:51 am

iran and russia are reportedly deploying military assets to venezuela. maduro is suppose to step down on jan 10th, but everyone knows he won't.


iran sending ships.
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation ... 43240.html


russia sending bombers
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna946246
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by admin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:15 am

FYI, for those that did not see it, the u.s. just promoted mattis's right hand man to head the 7th fleet in latin america a couple of weeks ago.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
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Re: Chile's Place in Latin America

Post by mem » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:14 am

admin wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:51 am
iran and russia are reportedly deploying military assets to venezuela. maduro is suppose to step down on jan 10th, but everyone knows he won't.


iran sending ships.
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation ... 43240.html


russia sending bombers
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna946246
Nuclear capable bombers in Venezuela? Meh, what could possibly go wrong. I have a few ideas

How many bottles of Chiles finest carmenere for a nuclear bomber?

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