macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

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chilly
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by chilly » Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:32 am

With the current 1 usd = 788 pesos (XE.com), which is about 20% higher (weaker to USD) than one year ago, are the majority of properties appreciating or just holding their USD values? Looking at the one year peso chart, the protests caused a big peak but a weak peso seems to be part of a long term trend.

Slightly off topic... even with the peso value changes, somehow Chile’s official inflation number for 2019 will likely be under 3%.

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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by admin » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:51 am

chilly wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:32 am
With the current 1 usd = 788 pesos (XE.com), which is about 20% higher (weaker to USD) than one year ago, are the majority of properties appreciating or just holding their USD values? Looking at the one year peso chart, the protests caused a big peak but a weak peso seems to be part of a long term trend.

Slightly off topic... even with the peso value changes, somehow Chile’s official inflation number for 2019 will likely be under 3%.
only if you are buying with dollars.

here is my read on the market right now; and it is really too early to tell.

the "social whatever" has damaged the housing / real estate assets of the poorest areas the most. Places foriegners do not invest anyway, tradionally high crime areas, lots of social issues, etc. . My guess, probably smacked them down 40% or more. the super- sub prime of chile's real estate market.

The higher end real estate and rural areas, seem to be holding steady or gaining, as people move to either park money in real estate, just hold, or an actual increase in demand takes hold. on top of that, a lot of the big construction companies have put the breaks on new developments until there is clarity on the social/ political/ economic situation. that always leads to a housing shortage a couple years down the line, and a spike in prices, especially in urban areas.

The south, setting aside particular urban trouble spots, has seen some decent action this year. what use to be summer home / investment property buying, has turned in to a Santiago dwellers' plan 'B' buying. they are preparing to be able to leave Santiago or the urban central region, if things get stupid. they may not actually move, but they are now looking at buying for more than just a summer home.

my guestimate, among my properties down south, is around a 30% gain in property price since October. I am not selling any of my property, but the anecdotal evidence from neighbouring property is encouraging.
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by admin » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:05 am

also, what we want to see, like every year, is where prices in the south or vacation areas settle out after all the summer window shoppers go back to Santiago. best deals, and thus market bottom for the year, are typically found in late winter. how many of the window shoppers actually closed deals? how many find themselves in a economic tight spot, and try to unload that vacation home they are not using?

lots more variables this year, but overall the good highly sought after areas will still be highly sought after next year, or 5 years from now.
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by admin » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:21 am

had a look at that car auction. not much i find interesting, but might still be informative to watch the action related to work vehicles. there is even ambulance going up soon.
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by 41southchile » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:35 am

admin wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:05 am
also, what we want to see, like every year, is where prices in the south or vacation areas settle out after all the summer window shoppers go back to Santiago. best deals, and thus market bottom for the year, are typically found in late winter. how many of the window shoppers actually closed deals? how many find themselves in a economic tight spot, and try to unload that vacation home they are not using?

lots more variables this year, but overall the good highly sought after areas will still be highly sought after next year, or 5 years from now.
Looking at last year , our busiest months for closing sales was April / May. Summer was very quiet last year, but enquiries and visits were evenly spread throughout the year. We have had more interest this month than any other summer, no slow down whatsoever, and that was confirmed when I asked the bank in a meeting on Monday, the regional boss said it has been exceptionally busy this January in terms of interested people looking South for Property and businesses.
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by admin » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:20 pm

yea, we tend to have found that too historically.

Foriegners visit chile durring the summer months, look around, find something they like, then get back in touch with us around the end of February to close a deal around April or May by the time everything is said and done.
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Re: macal auction January 28th, 2020 11 a.m.

Post by admin » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:28 pm

what i found interesting yesterday was the auction action on those lots near chillian Viejo.

when I earlier in the day mentioned them to my wife, she was like "no way".

well, durring the auction it shows you where the online bidder is from. all the bids were either concepcion or chillian. I am sort of reading that as there is, even on a local regional basis, interest in getting away from the problem areas.

The theme the last say 10 years among developers in chile has been "urban densification".

now it will be interesting to see if that reverses, as people try to run away from unstable high density urban areas. I really think this might finally light a fire too under the decentralization of Chile.
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