China Growth Has Stopped

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Britkid
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Britkid » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:24 pm

41southchile wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:12 pm
The thing I've read about growth of "only" 5 percent in China vs say 10 percent 10 years ago, is now that in actual monetary terms 5 percent today is actually more as its from a much much bigger economy than the 10 percent a decade ago, so while in percentage terms its smaller it's not the same, nothing can grow at 10 percent forever, the Chinese economy is maturing and evolving, which as Admin points out is actually a good thing.
It's the same for Apple, cars etc, we have reached peak smartphones and in some markets now it appears peak cars, it's a natural evolution., nothing really to panic about as much as some commentators like to claim, everything and every economy grows, evolves etc. Measuring gdp growth on simple percentage basis is pointless and meaningless imo, look at Japan how do you explain that and their economy of the last 20 years?
This is a good post but keep in mind while the growth for the whole of 2018 was probably still 5% or 6% growth in December and January was certainly much lower maybe even zero or negative.

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by 41southchile » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:32 pm

Deal coming? China and US? Copper at its highest level since July last year https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/ ... meses.html
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:23 am

last week china picked a fight with new Zealand and now it seems china is willing to pick a trade fight with Australia:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... al-imports

I still think all this trade war crap is ultimatly good for chile. a fight between china and australia especialy, will have everyone scrambling to double down on mining in chile.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:23 pm

Huawei Is Not Obliged to Open ‘Back Doors’ for China, it says its chairman.. Talking and denying everything, China and Huawei so afraid to losing its component supplying business to upcoming 5 G technology implementation throughout the entire world IT carriers.


It reminds me of then President Bill Clinton saying to the judge, no your honor, I did not have sex with Monica, she just took my D*** in to her mou***!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... chair-says
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by Britkid » Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:59 pm

"I’m in Beijing this week, and the mood is surprisingly positive. Everyone must have had a good break over the Chinese New Year holiday, as doom and gloom have given way to optimism. On Monday the Chinese stockmarket had one of its strongest one-day rallies ever, gaining 5.6%."
Source: Simon Baptist Chief Economist of the Economist magazine in a newsletter I am subscribed to.

Looks like things have stabilized and the bad economic news coming out of China so fast in December and early January seems to have stopped. So perhaps that was after all more of a pause rather than a long term serious issue??

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:14 pm

well i would not read too much in to that chinese rally. the gov just reinstated margin accounts for individual investors. i heard their lines stretching around the block in Shanghai to sign up for one.

now, thst said, i don't think China is anywhere near as bad as they are trying to make the u.s. think they are. they are playing possum with trump.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:52 pm

here is my take on the "trade war". Chinese are not stupid.

they knew at some point, the u.s., or some one, might call them on the their trade practices. they had 20+ years to prepare. hell,
Deng Xiaoping probably scribbled down that plan before even announcing the great opening up of china, as a backup plan if anything went wrong.

as soon as someone did call them on it, they moved hundreds billions of dollars off-shore in the form of manufacturing and investment, after spending trillions preparing by building relationships in countries all over the world for years. that includes chile. that includes the united states.

i have landed more chinese clients, and had more contacts or enquiries from china, in the last two years, than in all the years we have been in biz combined. May i remind our readers, my wife and i lived in china. Not like we have a shortage of contacts and understanding of china of how to capture Chinese clients ( well at least the basics).

simply, chinese are suddendly really interested in investing in chile, and every other country, that can act as a proxy to other markets.

The "tarrifs" were negated before the ink was dry on the signatures of "Donald J Trump" at the bottom of the documents.

China, is now using this "trade war" as distraction, and leverage, for other strategic objectives.

i mean literally, this is some sort of first page out of an intro to "how to play go" or the forward to a bad translation of the "art of war".

learn how to play go, and page through the art of war. this will all be hysterically and historically funny; because "the art of the deal", is no match for the "art of war".

There are probably school kids in china laughing about donald trump over a game of Go right now with their friends.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:31 pm

here is an example from todays headlines in Vietnam. Trump's press conference where he said , "sometimes you have to walk away".

ametures walk away from a negotionation out of frustration and lack of a propper power position; but i am sure his voting base back in the states thinks he is some sort frigen genius. typicaly a sign of not being properely prepared. you don't get to walk away from the table twice.

wait for it. wait for it. the koreans and chinese will bear bait him back to the table by stroking his ego. at wich point he will feel grateful for having been given what appears to him (at least) a face saving way out (and asian cultures know how to save face), and he will be more docile the next time around when they assert their demands. he will have to cave, because walking away from the table twice makes you look like a moron that does not know what they are doing (which he probably does not).
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:49 pm

let me put that example another way.

how often in history have you heard about diplomats walking away from the negotiation table?

i can not think of many, until Trump's administration. in fact the only one that comes to mind, and their might be more, was the confusion created a few years ago when trumps negotiators got up and walked out on the brazilians in the middle of steel tarrif negotiations.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by admin » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:32 am

on top of the margin accounts, chinese shares are being added to the global indexes:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/msci-be ... china.html


massive pump and dump.
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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by at46 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:21 pm

admin wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:52 pm

i have landed more chinese clients, and had more contacts or enquiries from china, in the last two years, than in all the years we have been in biz combined.
Uff, more bad drivers on Chilean roads. At least the Argies are easily recognizable with their fancy plates. I watched a Chinese couple nearly cause an accident yesterday when they stopped in the middle of the one way street. They just passed a gas station and suddenly remembered they needed gas.

It reminded me of a horrible accident in Vancouver when a Chinese woman driving her and her friend's kids from school stopped her van in the middle of the fast lane on the highway to answer a phone or something and a beamer ploughed through her from behind.

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Re: China Growth Has Stopped

Post by HybridAmbassador » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:56 pm

at46 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:21 pm
admin wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:52 pm

i have landed more chinese clients, and had more contacts or enquiries from china, in the last two years, than in all the years we have been in biz combined.
Uff, more bad drivers on Chilean roads. At least the Argies are easily recognizable with their fancy plates. I watched a Chinese couple nearly cause an accident yesterday when they stopped in the middle of the one way street. They just passed a gas station and suddenly remembered they needed gas.

It reminded me of a horrible accident in Vancouver when a Chinese woman driving her and her friend's kids from school stopped her van in the middle of the fast lane on the highway to answer a phone or something and a beamer ploughed through her from behind.
ha,ha,haa hilarious your story above. Once in the states, my ex-collages told me, if you spot a Chinese or Indian driver on front of you, get out of that lane asap!
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