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Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:03 pm
by Britkid
On the subject of the drought, today I have workers at our house extending the depth of the well after it ran dry for the first time in at least more than 3 years (i.e. from before we lived here). They are going around doing this to other houses as well. So are others.

So, they were measuring the well and it was 3m deep. So, they are extending it to 4m at least. (EDIT: This was a mistake it was 4m deep and now 5.)

Quite concerning that this would happen in October, just as we are probably about to go into a period that is normally dry.

This is in RM.

This may get worse with climate change. More frequent and severe droughts are one of the predictions.

There is a (left wing, environmentalist) school of thought going around (mostly I see it on facebook) that the drought is actually primarily a result of over use of water by agriculture and industry rather than just reductions in the amount of water available.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:31 pm
by mem
Wow only 3meters and now 4 meters?
I guess that is a bit encouraging...I don't know a lot about wells but I thought wells were generally closer to a minimum of 6 or 7 meters. If nothing else to avoid contamination from surface water seeping down

I guess santiago's water table is pretty high as in near the surface, perhaps there is much more water still to be tapped with more traditionally deep wells?

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:23 pm
by Baltimore
Unless you move most of the government buildings down to, say, Valdivia or Concepción, I find it hard to believe that headquarter buildings in Santiago (think Sanhattan, all financial and consulting firms, etc) will move south because of the effects of climate change in central Chile. Vineyards and farms are already moving south because they have to, but unless we see massive investments in new infrastructure in some southern city(ies), I don't see a stampede of people from Santiago and the surrounding areas moving south anytime soon.

Young friends that have moved down south expecting to make $ while having a good quality of living are already back in Santiago, the only ones that remain south are the ones that had made some good $ working in profitable jobs in Santiago or mining companies (or abroad) BEFORE they moved south. Of course, this all depends on your expectations.

Hopefully I am wrong because I love the south and I look forward to see a less centralized country sometime in the future.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:41 pm
by at46
In the meantime they're putting a whole new city right here in Concon. They recently approved construction of another 3800 apartments up in the Los Pinos area. Hong Con anyone?

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:24 pm
by admin
well, let me put this in perspective.

I can not recall ever having a relocation client that was chilean in all the years we have been in business, that did not come from outside chile. Typically even then, they are like spouses of a gringo wanting to move back to chile. There were a few chileans returning to chile (exhiles), or second generation Chileans born outside of chile.

We had never done an internal relocation of a chilean, that I can remember, before January 1st 2019.

We obviously have lots of chilean clients for things like divorces, corporate, etc; but, never internal relocation. We have done a few "investment" type real estate deals, but never moving.

We started 2019 with zero chilean on our client book for internal relocation.

We have aquired 8 chilean clients this year alone, that are all doctors. Besides our doctors, we now have a nice client book made up of buisness people, attorneys (you would be shocked by how many attorneys we have, both foreign and domestic as clients), and other professionals. We also are getting a fairly hefty amount of chilean corporate clients, with projects they want execute in the south to take advantage of this demographic/ economic shift.

where did most of them move?

Los Lagos to los rios region.

The doctors (and the other professionals) are not the B team either. They all university of Chile and similar type graduates, and all studied and worked outside of chile. They all had major practice or were the heads of clinics in santiago. They did not need to move.

They all got friends and family that are following them.

Internal (in country) relocations was one of those markets I simply never envisioned when I started this biz was ever something we would do.

The money is moving south, and a lot of it is going to Los lagos (especially around lago Llanquihue) for the mix of high quality living, good infrastructure, logistics, etc. A drive to the puerto montt airport, at almost any time day or night, will explain the growth here. That did not exist even 5 years ago.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:02 pm
by admin
20191008_215906.jpg
As they say in the p o r n industry, that is is the money shot.

my wife is up at our santiago office today. drove her to the airport, 35 mins, not counting the tractor that was holding up traffic on the road (traffic jams are different down south).

decided i did not want to cook tonight. Drove 2 km down the road for a world class bacon cheese burger and an double IPA beer (well, at least the best in chile). I was greeted by the manger outside with a smile and handshake. Walked in to the bar, and got a greeting like norm in cheers. The waiter dropped my favorite beer on my table without me asking. We then went through the politeness of my order, even though the kid already had the ticket filled out for my standard burger.

After, outside they have a fire ring on the beach. kicked back, had another beer., listened to a documentary with broad band on my phone.

That is not a view from my house. My house has a better view.

The number of places in the World you can do that today, is really, really, small.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:36 pm
by admin
think about this.

32% of the world land mass is below the equator.

now subtract all the wonderful places to (not) live there (e.g. Antarctica, rain forest, super stable Venezuela, Argentina, etc, etc.).

buying land in southern chile, is buying in to the 1%.

OF THE WORLD!!!

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:38 pm
by admin
20191007_183555.jpg
that was my big security breach of the week.

a chilean partridge.

I had to make a fast decision. Do i shoot him with my camera or wrist rocket. forum or fuego. forum or oven?

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:45 pm
by admin
admin wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:36 pm
think about this.

32% of the world land mass is below the equator.

now subtract all the wonderful places to (not) live there (e.g. Antarctica, rain forest, super stable Venezuela, Argentina, etc, etc.).

buying land in southern chile, is buying in to the 1%.

OF THE WORLD!!!
Hell, you can not live even in over half of chile; for one reason or another (e.g. mountains, dessert, bad part of city, not for sale, can not be sold, etc).

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:55 am
by 41southchile
Baltimore wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:23 pm
Unless you move most of the government buildings down to, say, Valdivia or Concepción, I find it hard to believe that headquarter buildings in Santiago (think Sanhattan, all financial and consulting firms, etc) will move south because of the effects of climate change in central Chile. Vineyards and farms are already moving south because they have to, but unless we see massive investments in new infrastructure in some southern city(ies), I don't see a stampede of people from Santiago and the surrounding areas moving south anytime soon.

Young friends that have moved down south expecting to make $ while having a good quality of living are already back in Santiago, the only ones that remain south are the ones that had made some good $ working in profitable jobs in Santiago or mining companies (or abroad) BEFORE they moved south. Of course, this all depends on your expectations.

Hopefully I am wrong because I love the south and I look forward to see a less centralized country sometime in the future.
You right, theres never going to be a stampede, Santiago is not like Jakarta and sinking away. The most likely candidates for moving South are the retired, semi retired, self employed/ independents, branch office workers looking after this end of the country, hijitos o hijitas de papi with lots of money, homesteaders or those whose focus is not just money, teachers, doctors and other in demand jobs. Even if its eventually only 2 or 3 percent Chileans of Santiago descent, that's still potentially 150 k to 200k mas o menos, which imo would have a positive impact on the South (depending on who you are your opinion on that may differ).
The young friends you mention? What were they doing where the expected to make good money? If it was for someone else, chances are the had false expectations, the South generally doesn't pay as high a wage if your working for da man, as Santiago does.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:43 am
by admin
if they got say even 10% of the population to leave Santiago, or the immediate central region, it would go a very long way to taking the pressure off the infrastructure of the central region.

Re: Housing market situation

Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:58 am
by Baltimore
That would be wonderful, Santiago is really nice during holidays, when a % of the population leaves the city.