Housing market situation

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Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:28 pm

PXYC wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:00 pm
I recently went from Providencia to Cajón del Maipo by car, and going up Las Condes > Vitacura > Barnechea it amazed me all the new buildings constructed with 21 floors or more. I live very near to work, so I walk short distances, and for long distances I usually travel under the earth, so seeing the city by car really amazed me, it's actually a whole medium european city (housing for 1 million people?) that Chile constructed beetween this space in less than a decade (well I arrived to Chile in 2015 and I don't remember all those buildings then). :)

Well this is just my visual perception anyway.

It kind of defeats the idea of investing, with rents being so cheap and all, and this new construction increasing the offer. Like in Providencia I can find 1b apartments in the likes of 400 lucas and there's this feeling that prices have been slowly lowering, while my salary has been moderately increased since 2015. :lol:

I really don't understand how come doesn't the housing market crash, it's magic to me, but I guess buying prices will continue to increase with this new lowered interest rates, so really the money I'm saving not buying will continue to be "eaten" by the prices increase I guess.
I live in a 100sq mt nice apartment in Las Condes and pay ~530k per month. The owner had it posted for 650k at portalinmobiliario, I offered 500K a couple years ago and he accepted. I have three more couples of friends living nearby, one couple in Pocuro paying a similar amounts for big and nice apartments as well. Same situation for all of them, all ended up renting for like 70%-80% the posted price at portalinmobiliario. I know that these properties sell for about 200M-230M, price-to-rent ratios north of 30 years.

A couple of months ago one of our bathrooms required big repairs, the bill was 550K. I was nice not to have to pay for that :)

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41southchile
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:57 am

So Piñera says that due to the drought, more people will move south. Surprise surprise, tell us something we didnt know already and haven't known for about the last friggin 10 years , at least, people have been leaving Santiago for the South.
In saying that though , its not only the drought though that causes people to flee Stgo. Its more due mismanagement of Santiago and the zona central (probably all of chile actually) in the last few decades by politicos on the right and those businesses that under their xhilean version of the neoliberalism (yes the meaning is interpretative) have disregarded every other non monetary consequence in their quest to have a little bit of power and a lot of pesos.
Then of course Mix that it in with the pseudo socialists and burrocrats on the left and their ideas for saving the country (mixed in with making/skimming money) and you have the perfect recipie for mediocrity and a semi functional large metropolis and you can start to work out why Santiago is the way it is today.
Of course not all Santiago ills can be laid at the door of the politicos, in fact maybe its surprising how functional the city is , despite their efforts . It's also a combined effort of individuals and citizens too, who seemingly dont seem to give a shit about anything outside their sphere of knowledge. I guess it's the chicken or the egg senario, what came first ? The self interested and or incompetent politician or the self interested unaware of anything else outside their bubble citizen?
Times they are a ch ch changing though, there are some
signs of green shoots in Santiago.
Anyones guess, Because it sure as hell isn't just the weather that is causing people to leave Santiago for the South mr Piñera, it maybe one thing in a long list but there are plenty more on that list.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... chile.html
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

mem
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by mem » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:03 am

When Pinera says south I wonder how far south is he thinking. I know there is zero issue with drought in inland region 9. I guess I assume at least Bio Bio and south is his thinking.

Wish there was a city as developed as Santiago further south and as far inland as Santiago

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41southchile
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by 41southchile » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:33 am

mem wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:03 am
When Pinera says south I wonder how far south is he thinking. I know there is zero issue with drought in inland region 9. I guess I assume at least Bio Bio and south is his thinking.

Wish there was a city as developed as Santiago further south and as far inland as Santiago
Yeah nothing really, in terms of other Cities in Chile like you describe. I imagine he means South of the Biobio , which is where they want to try and pump water from, which just seems like another grandiose idea of a politician, (like China and their mega water canals which have the same flaws). There is an enormous amount of waste of water already in central valley, one example is shitty 19th century irrigation canals that leak like sieves and evaporate a lot of water. Nah, let's not worry about that but let's build a friggin big ass canal and Pipes from the biobio that will take over a decade.
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:59 am

41southchile wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:57 am
So Piñera says that due to the drought, more people will move south. Surprise surprise, tell us something we didnt know already and haven't known for about the last friggin 10 years , at least, people have been leaving Santiago for the South.
In saying that though , its not only the drought though that causes people to flee Stgo. Its more due mismanagement of Santiago and the zona central (probably all of chile actually) in the last few decades by politicos on the right and those businesses that under their xhilean version of the neoliberalism (yes the meaning is interpretative) have disregarded every other non monetary consequence in their quest to have a little bit of power and a lot of pesos.
Then of course Mix that it in with the pseudo socialists and burrocrats on the left and their ideas for saving the country (mixed in with making/skimming money) and you have the perfect recipie for mediocrity and a semi functional large metropolis and you can start to work out why Santiago is the way it is today.
Of course not all Santiago ills can be laid at the door of the politicos, in fact maybe its surprising how functional the city is , despite their efforts . It's also a combined effort of individuals and citizens too, who seemingly dont seem to give a shit about anything outside their sphere of knowledge. I guess it's the chicken or the egg senario, what came first ? The self interested and or incompetent politician or the self interested unaware of anything else outside their bubble citizen?
Times they are a ch ch changing though, there are some
signs of green shoots in Santiago.
Anyones guess, Because it sure as hell isn't just the weather that is causing people to leave Santiago for the South mr Piñera, it maybe one thing in a long list but there are plenty more on that list.

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/ ... chile.html
You should go right now take all your savings and buy as much land as possible in the south before other people hear about this secret! ....oooh wait a minute :shock:

Britkid
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Britkid » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:03 pm

On the subject of the drought, today I have workers at our house extending the depth of the well after it ran dry for the first time in at least more than 3 years (i.e. from before we lived here). They are going around doing this to other houses as well. So are others.

So, they were measuring the well and it was 3m deep. So, they are extending it to 4m at least. (EDIT: This was a mistake it was 4m deep and now 5.)

Quite concerning that this would happen in October, just as we are probably about to go into a period that is normally dry.

This is in RM.

This may get worse with climate change. More frequent and severe droughts are one of the predictions.

There is a (left wing, environmentalist) school of thought going around (mostly I see it on facebook) that the drought is actually primarily a result of over use of water by agriculture and industry rather than just reductions in the amount of water available.

mem
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by mem » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:31 pm

Wow only 3meters and now 4 meters?
I guess that is a bit encouraging...I don't know a lot about wells but I thought wells were generally closer to a minimum of 6 or 7 meters. If nothing else to avoid contamination from surface water seeping down

I guess santiago's water table is pretty high as in near the surface, perhaps there is much more water still to be tapped with more traditionally deep wells?

Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:23 pm

Unless you move most of the government buildings down to, say, Valdivia or Concepción, I find it hard to believe that headquarter buildings in Santiago (think Sanhattan, all financial and consulting firms, etc) will move south because of the effects of climate change in central Chile. Vineyards and farms are already moving south because they have to, but unless we see massive investments in new infrastructure in some southern city(ies), I don't see a stampede of people from Santiago and the surrounding areas moving south anytime soon.

Young friends that have moved down south expecting to make $ while having a good quality of living are already back in Santiago, the only ones that remain south are the ones that had made some good $ working in profitable jobs in Santiago or mining companies (or abroad) BEFORE they moved south. Of course, this all depends on your expectations.

Hopefully I am wrong because I love the south and I look forward to see a less centralized country sometime in the future.

at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:41 pm

In the meantime they're putting a whole new city right here in Concon. They recently approved construction of another 3800 apartments up in the Los Pinos area. Hong Con anyone?

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:24 pm

well, let me put this in perspective.

I can not recall ever having a relocation client that was chilean in all the years we have been in business, that did not come from outside chile. Typically even then, they are like spouses of a gringo wanting to move back to chile. There were a few chileans returning to chile (exhiles), or second generation Chileans born outside of chile.

We had never done an internal relocation of a chilean, that I can remember, before January 1st 2019.

We obviously have lots of chilean clients for things like divorces, corporate, etc; but, never internal relocation. We have done a few "investment" type real estate deals, but never moving.

We started 2019 with zero chilean on our client book for internal relocation.

We have aquired 8 chilean clients this year alone, that are all doctors. Besides our doctors, we now have a nice client book made up of buisness people, attorneys (you would be shocked by how many attorneys we have, both foreign and domestic as clients), and other professionals. We also are getting a fairly hefty amount of chilean corporate clients, with projects they want execute in the south to take advantage of this demographic/ economic shift.

where did most of them move?

Los Lagos to los rios region.

The doctors (and the other professionals) are not the B team either. They all university of Chile and similar type graduates, and all studied and worked outside of chile. They all had major practice or were the heads of clinics in santiago. They did not need to move.

They all got friends and family that are following them.

Internal (in country) relocations was one of those markets I simply never envisioned when I started this biz was ever something we would do.

The money is moving south, and a lot of it is going to Los lagos (especially around lago Llanquihue) for the mix of high quality living, good infrastructure, logistics, etc. A drive to the puerto montt airport, at almost any time day or night, will explain the growth here. That did not exist even 5 years ago.
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:02 pm

20191008_215906.jpg
As they say in the p o r n industry, that is is the money shot.

my wife is up at our santiago office today. drove her to the airport, 35 mins, not counting the tractor that was holding up traffic on the road (traffic jams are different down south).

decided i did not want to cook tonight. Drove 2 km down the road for a world class bacon cheese burger and an double IPA beer (well, at least the best in chile). I was greeted by the manger outside with a smile and handshake. Walked in to the bar, and got a greeting like norm in cheers. The waiter dropped my favorite beer on my table without me asking. We then went through the politeness of my order, even though the kid already had the ticket filled out for my standard burger.

After, outside they have a fire ring on the beach. kicked back, had another beer., listened to a documentary with broad band on my phone.

That is not a view from my house. My house has a better view.

The number of places in the World you can do that today, is really, really, small.
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:36 pm

think about this.

32% of the world land mass is below the equator.

now subtract all the wonderful places to (not) live there (e.g. Antarctica, rain forest, super stable Venezuela, Argentina, etc, etc.).

buying land in southern chile, is buying in to the 1%.

OF THE WORLD!!!
Spencer Global Chile: Legal, relocation, and Investment assistance in Chile.
For more information visit: https://www.spencerglobal.com

From USA and outside Chile dial 1-917-727-5985 (U.S.), in Chile dial 65 2 42 1024 or by cell 747 97974.

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