Housing market situation

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eeuunikkeiexpat
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by eeuunikkeiexpat » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:51 pm

The more important question is, who the hell voted for those privileged spoiled brats?
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fraggle092
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:07 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:54 am

I had good chuckle the other day. some executive in an interview said something like, "we should not be letting a bunch of kids that went from the university direct to Congress, and never held a job in either the public or private sector, make major economic or buisness decisions". referring to the little commies in congress.
Straight from Student Politics to Congress. From living off their parents to mega-dietas paid by us.
Way to go, Chile.
eeuunikkeiexpat wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:51 pm
The more important question is, who the hell voted for those privileged spoiled brats?
Instigated by the political establishment, (Ricardo Lagos was a pioneer here with his useless Senator son) to co-opt the student protesters who also now realize that a career within the State is much more rewarding than actually working for a living. Plenty of well-paid places for militantes in the only growth area in Chile.

From 2009:
Eduardo Frei asegura que para avanzar en igualdad y protección de los ciudadanos se necesita más Estado y más Gobierno, como lo ha hecho Michelle Bachelet.
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Julito
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Julito » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:30 pm

Not only Chile, it´s no better in Australia where many politicians got there via the party machine after being active in university politics and are eventually parachuted into a safe seat. They´ve never had a job relevant to their uni degree so are basically unemployable, suck on the public funded teat their entire "careers" and after a qualifying period retire on very generous taxpayer funded superannuation for life, with an office allowance and free travel for they and their spouses. If they do get voted out they almost invariably go back to working for the party machine or another politician as an "advisor", or a "consultant". If not, they can get scooped up by an industry group as a lobbyist.

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fraggle092
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by fraggle092 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:26 pm

Julito wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:30 pm
Not only Chile, it´s no better in Australia where many politicians got there via the party machine after being active in university politics and are eventually parachuted into a safe seat
I think that most of the "developed" world has gone that way (sighs) and people are getting fed up with it. Hence the rise of the demagogues, (naming no names to avoid yet more sidetracking).
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at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:20 pm

Chile at number seven on the list of the fastest growing real estate markets https://content.knightfrank.com/researc ... 9-6639.pdf

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admin
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:14 pm

so this is interesting.

we decided with the recent interest rate cuts by the Chilean central bank, to see what we could do about refinancing our house mortgage. I don't typically get too excited about a quarter point cut here or there. Not worth the hassle.

my wife called our executive at the bank and asked what they could do. We implied that we were being offered lower mortgage rates from other banks.

They came back in less than a week with an offer to drop our mortgage rate from 3.6 % down to 2.01% on 15 year mortgage, with no fight. We have only had it for a little over a year.

Perhaps we should go shop the other banks. :lol:

Besides the possibility of loosing our buisness, I think what has them spooked is the possibility the central bank is going to keep on cutting. I think JPMorgan the same day said they were expecting the central bank of chile to cut rates down to around 1.25%.
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by nwdiver » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:17 pm

admin wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:14 pm
so this interesting.

we decided with the recent interest rate cuts by the Chilean central bank, to see what we could do about refinancing our house mortgage. I don't typically get too excited about a quarter point cut here or there. Not worth the hassle.

my wife called our executive at the bank and asked what they could do. We implied that we were being offered lower mortgage rates from other banks.

They came back in less than a week with an offer to drop our mortgage rate from 3.6 % down to 2.01% on 15 year mortgage, with no fight. We have only had it for a little over a year.

Perhaps we should go shop the other banks. :lol:

Besides the possibility of loosing our buisness, I think what has them spooked is the possibility the central bank is going to keep on cutting. I think JPMorgan the same day said they were expecting the central bank of chile to cut rates down to around 1.25%.

1.25% would put them in the developed world's class, well except for Japan's 0%.....
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:40 am

yea, I'll get excited again about mortgage rates when they go negative. I want to be paid like a central bank for taking a loan. :lol: why should they have all the fun.
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Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:44 pm

Some interesting stuff to read for those interested in real estate markets in general

An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics

Edward L. Glaeser Harvard Kennedy School
Charles G. Nathanson Northwestern University
https://research.hks.harvard.edu/public ... px?Id=1170

A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding area. Buyers forecast using past transaction prices. Approximating buyers do not adjust for the expectations of past buyers, and instead assume that past prices reflect only contemporaneous demand, as with a capitalization rate formula. Consistent with survey evidence, this approximation leads buyers to expect increases in the market value of their homes after recent house price increases, to fail to anticipate the price busts that follow booms, and to be overconfident in their assessments of the housing market.


And a full book on the topic:
https://rd.springer.com/content/pdf/10. ... 1674-3.pdf

at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:07 pm

Baltimore wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:44 pm
Some interesting stuff to read for those interested in real estate markets in general
Except that real estate markets 'in general' do not exist in Chile :) Everything is priced based on the specifics of each comuna/street/building/floor and orientation towards the sun :)

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tiagoabner
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by tiagoabner » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:35 am

admin wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:40 am
yea, I'll get excited again about mortgage rates when they go negative. I want to be paid like a central bank for taking a loan. :lol: why should they have all the fun.
I've heard from an acquaintance that works on real estate that 2.25% is the current rate at Banco de Chile, which is - supposedly - the one doing mortgages at the lowest rate. That's for 10000+ UF at 30 years. Falabella and Banco Estado are said to have the second and third lowest rates at this time.

It seems to be a good time to buy and or refinance to lock down these rates. The best rate in Portugal, with zero or near zero Central Bank interest, would be 1.9%. I'm surprised Chile's mortgages are this cheap.
I'm NOT your lawyer, accountant or financial planner. All information at this post should be considered for your entertainment only. Consult a professional before making a decision regarding whatever topic was mentioned in this post.

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41southchile
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by 41southchile » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:57 pm

Crane season starting up again in Puerto Varas, two up at the moment for new apartments , another 4 will be going up soon I'd say, as there are at least 3 demolition sites and another bare land all fenced off ready with OSB fences . Thought there might have been a slowdown but anecdotally doesn't appear that way.
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. - Darwin

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