Housing market situation

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paladin
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by paladin » Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:45 pm

at46 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:26 pm
Baltimore wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:20 pm
at46 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:40 pm
Santiago is actually pretty easy. Buy anything within 5 min walk of a metro station and you're golden. The Metro people have done all the research for you.
Buy anything within 5 min walk of a metro station....at any price? :shock:
Probe them. If they're firm, to me it's actually a good sign.
It’s not as simple as you may think. I can give various examples where following that theory will result in a poor investment.

at46
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by at46 » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:04 am

paladin wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:45 pm
at46 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:26 pm
Baltimore wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:20 pm
at46 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:40 pm
Santiago is actually pretty easy. Buy anything within 5 min walk of a metro station and you're golden. The Metro people have done all the research for you.
Buy anything within 5 min walk of a metro station....at any price? :shock:
Probe them. If they're firm, to me it's actually a good sign.
It’s not as simple as you may think. I can give various examples where following that theory will result in a poor investment.
Great! Sounds like you and Baltimore should talk. I feel it might be a start of a beautiful friendship, if you can just get out of your garage in Providencia :lol:

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admin
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:58 pm

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soyena
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by soyena » Mon May 06, 2019 11:00 pm

admin wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:58 pm
6% rise in prices in apartments:

https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/con ... 45315.html
Where does the money come from? I don't see a rise in basic incomes, investments from abroad? Honestly I find recent prices in Santiago crazy. Is the economy getting better without me knowing? I must go out more I guess

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admin
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Tue May 07, 2019 7:10 am

4% rise in gdp last year, 3.5 is the projection for this year. highest wage gains are going to be in Santiago and the central region.

so, 6% increase in housing prices is not that crazy considering the economy.

the head of socovesa, the housing development company, in their yearly report described it as "urban densification" that is going on in cities all across chile.

I don't have an exact number, but this first quarter, with just the big developers I follow, had something like over 3 billion dollars announced in investment this year in housing. most slated for apartment buildings.

there is also a new investment model going on. big banks are going in as partners in developments with big developers on projects, rather than just loaning money to finance the projects.

All that money sloshing around is however up gainst an ongoing problem of the permiting problems as cities have failed to get their urban planning sorted out. think i seen one developer say that the average permitting process had moved from like 8 months to 16 months. mostly due to all the half-baked laws and regulations that bachelet added last administration. all the developers are bitching about the lack of certainty in the permitting process.
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Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Tue May 07, 2019 2:59 pm

Here is a good article about the widening gap between home prices and income in Santiago. I wonder if those two curves can keep moving farther apart from each other indefinitely.
https://www.latercera.com/nacional/noti ... ssion=true
Screen Shot 2019-05-07 at 1.52.51 PM.png
And a couple of hints to why this is happening.

http://www.elmercurio.com/Inversiones/N ... ncial.aspx
https://www.elmercurio.com/Inversiones/ ... arios.aspx

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Wed May 08, 2019 10:29 am

well, i still think there is a vast under reporting of household income and wealth in chile on the one hand, and fairly high concentration of wealth of chile around santiago on the other hand.

can people get carried away with over concentrating their investments in apartments? sure.

you also need to look at how older buildings and apartments depreciate in chile. they depreciate more like cars, than residential property. crappy old ugly buildings vs. new shiny better built buildings simply dont hold the value in the market place anymore.

you pretty much draw a line at say anything 2001 and earlier is simply not worth what a newer apartment might go for. so there is some replacment going on in the market.
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Baltimore
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Baltimore » Wed May 15, 2019 11:13 pm

"When the only thing you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail...."

From tomorrow's issue of Diario Financiero (www.df.cl)
portada.png
Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 9.46.36 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 9.45.44 PM.jpg

thisisreallycomplicated
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by thisisreallycomplicated » Thu May 16, 2019 12:35 am

This seems like a good thread to ask this question... Do Chileans tend to borrow a lot on their home equity?
“Now it’s conspiracy – they’ve made that something that should not even be entertained for a minute, that powerful people might get together and have a plan. Doesn’t happen, you’re a kook, you’re a conspiracy buff!” – George Carlin

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41southchile
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by 41southchile » Thu May 16, 2019 1:50 am

Baltimore wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 11:13 pm
"When the only thing you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail...."

From tomorrow's issue of Diario Financiero (www.df.cl)

portada.png

Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 9.46.36 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 9.45.44 PM.jpg
I've said before and I'll say it again, there is no way I would invest in an appartment in Puerto Varas. I can't really speak for Santiago, but if it's like anything else in this country I would say those that got in first have made their money and are most likely getting out now just as everyone else is clamoring for their piece of the action crashing it for everyone. The last in so to speak, still I guess they are needed for the others to get out.
The appartment market in Puerto Varas has already hit its peak and is on the way down, the short term rental boom (arbnb) is history as upper middleclass wannabes stretched themselves for an overpriced box they are now left paying off and can barely get 30000 a night rental. Its pissed the hotels off and now its coming to the attention of the local politicos. (So that gig will be up soon, forcing some more to bail out)
The oversupply has seen some appartment projects stall and others finished and virtually empty.
The ineptness of local government (and central govt) through poor planning and bad governance has killed the golden goose of Puerto Varas and many people want to get a few more kilometers out ( which I'm really happy about to be honest) The lake , the lake for gods sake, the supposed jewel of Puerto Varas gets sewerage in it when ever it rains, the fish are dangerous to eat due to parasites, the chimney smoke is unbearable in winter, the traffic and streets are a sad joke now, etc etc etc etc etc.
Puerto Varas should never have had that many appartments, I can see why so many locals are so pissed. They have been trying for over 5 years to get a new town plan to restrict things because the old one is from like the 80s and there is nothing stopping developers doing whatever. 5 years later and they are still unable to sort their shit out, but it's too late now, they might be able to affect some things in the future whenever it gets over the line, but probably not.
I love visiting Puerto Varas, but between 9am and about miday or later at night for a meal but outside those times I try and stay away now, it just annoys me too much.
Like I say , whenever something is good you can guarantee it won't take long before everyone jumps in and ruins it for everyone and theres plenty of people willing to let them in at any price so they can make a quick buck.
Having had a corrupt mayor and now a tipsy dirty old hasbeen, who tries to kiss young female singers on the lips, hasn't really helped the situation either.

http://www.cronicalibre.cl/2014/07/21/p ... a-braunau/

https://www.13.cl/programas/bienvenidos ... oso-contra
Comuna Loncotoro Lakes Region Chile

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Re: Housing market situation

Post by admin » Thu May 16, 2019 11:34 am

as i read that article above,

https://www.df.cl/noticias/mercados/bol ... 95328.html

what struct me as not making sense was the estimated nearly 5 million people in dicom as dead beat debtors, in a population of 18.5 million. that number just does not square with reality in any form.

so, that would mean something like over 50% of the adult population is in dicom, once you subtract children from the population, etc, and then put a 7 year statute of limitations on debts, etc. sounds like dicom has more debtors than live people.
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Donnybrook
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Re: Housing market situation

Post by Donnybrook » Thu May 16, 2019 11:38 am

41southchile, the exact same thing happened to Viña del Mar with huge buildings stretching across what used to be sand dunes. Pucon used to be a pleasant town to visit in summer, now worth avoiding, especially in February.

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